Yesterday’s Games: Contingency Learning and the Growth of Public Spending, 1890-1938

Neither democracy nor globalization can explain the doubling of the peacetime public share in many Western countries between World Wars I and II. Here we examine two other explanations that are consistent with the timing of the observed changes, namely, (1) a shift in the demand for public goods and (2) the effect of war on the willingness to share. We first model each of these approaches as a contingency-learning phenomenon within Schelling’s Multi-Person Dilemma. We then derive verifiable propositions from each hypothesis. National time series of public spending as a share of GNP reveal no unit root but a break in trend, a result shown to favor explanation (2) over (1).

The Effect of Public Spending on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Recent empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) suggests that public spending shocks increase (crowd in) private consumption. Standard general equilibrium models predict the opposite. We show that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model in which public spending is chosen optimally can rationalize the crowding-in effect documented in the VAR literature. When such a model is used as a data-generating process, a VAR estimated using the artificial data yields a positive consumption response to an increase in public spending, consistent with the empirical findings. This result holds regardless of whether private and public purchases are complements or substitutes.

Le mouvement Tea Party aux États-Unis : une mobilisation expliquée par le cadre des opportunités politiques.

Ce mémoire étudie les conditions d’émergence du mouvement Tea Party. Nous cherchons à savoir si la mobilisation a été facilitée par la présence d’opportunités politiques, telles que proposées dans la littérature sur les mouvements sociaux. À l’aide d’une analyse de contenu, il a été possible d’observer trois opportunités dans une période comprise entre février 2009 et octobre 2010. Dans cette même période, il a été aussi possible d’identifier la fréquence et la nature de la mobilisation, qui prend la forme de protestations et de réunions informelles. Nous en arrivons à la conclusion que ces opportunités étaient présentes lors de l’émergence du mouvement social. En effet, la présence d’enjeux spécifiques, d’une division partisane ainsi que d’alliés coïncide avec une augmentation substantielle de la mobilisation. Les élections de mi-mandat semblent avoir transformé un mouvement axé sur les protestations vers une action politique conventionnelle.

A Micro-Economic Incidence Analysis of Federal Public Revenues and Spending for Canadian Households and Provinces, 2007.

Rapport de recherche présenté à la Faculté des arts et des sciences en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en sciences économiques.

Essays in political economy

Cette thése relie trois articles sur l'économie politique. Ces articles analysent à la fois théoriquement et empiriquement si, et dans quelle mesure, trois phénomènes politiques différents (les partis politiques, les guerres civiles et les menaces externes), et leur interaction, influent sur les résultats économiques. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact de la présence au pouvoir des politiciens de nouveaux partis politiques sur la taille du gouvernement. Le chapitre se concentre sur les municipalités colombiennes, où les nouveaux partis politiques ont été nombreux et fructueux au cours des dernières années. Les estimations par régressions sur discontinuité montrent que les dépenses publiques et les recettes fiscales sont significativement plus élevées dans les municipalités gouvernées par un maire d'un nouveau parti politique. En utilisant des informations sur la politique locale et des caractéristiques des nouveaux partis, je soutiens que ce résultat peut être expliqué par le fait qu'il y a moins d'information sur les politiciens de nouveaux partis que les politiciens des partis traditionnels. Le deuxième chapitre développe une nouvelle explication de l'impact des guerres civiles et des conflits interétatiques sur le state-building qui repose sur l'idée que les protagonistes de ces deux types de conflits peuvent avoir un lien (ethnique ou idéologique). Un premier résultat montre que la force de ce lien détermine si les conflits contre des adversaires internes (i.e. guerres civiles) ou des ennemis externes (i.e. conflits interétatiques) sont complémentaires ou se substituent, conduisant à plus ou moins d'investissement en capacité fiscale. La théorie prédit également un rôle non trivial de la stabilité politique dans la relation entre les deux types de conflits et la capacité fiscale: un deuxième résultat montre que, bien que la stabilité politique se traduit par moins de capacité fiscale, plus de stabilité n'implique pas plus de state-building. Leur équivalence dépend du niveau de cohésion des institutions. Un nouveau mécanisme par lequel plus de stabilité politique peut impliquer moins de state-building est proposé. En outre, il est démontré que des corrélations dans les données cross-country sont compatibles avec la théorie. Le troisième chapitre examine la relation entre la probabilité d'occurrence d'un conflit intérieur violent et le risque qu'un tel conflit "s'externalise" (c'est à dire se propage dans un autre pays en devenant un conflit interétatique). Je considère une situation dans laquelle un conflit interne entre un gouvernement et un groupe rebelle peut s'externaliser. Je montre que le risque d'externalisation augmente la probabilité d'un accord de paix, mais seulement si le gouvernement est suffisamment puissant par rapport aux rebelles, et si le risque d'externalisation est suffisamment élevé. Je montre comment ce modèle aide à comprendre les récents pourparlers de paix entre le gouvernement colombien et le groupe le plus puissant des rebelles dans le pays, les FARC.

The Forgotten Side of Partisanship: Negative Party Identification in Four Anglo-American Democracies

Early studies of electoral behavior proposed that party identification could be negative as well as positive. Over time, though, the concept became mostly understood as a positive construct. The few studies that took negative identification into account tended to portray it as a marginal factor that went “hand-in-hand” with positive preferences. Recent scholarship in psychology reaffirms, however, that negative evaluations are not simply the bipolar opposite of positive ones. This article considers negative party identification from this standpoint, and evaluates its impact in recent national elections in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. Our findings highlight the autonomous power of negative partisanship. They indicate as well that ideology has an influence on both positive and negative partisan identification.

Fédéralisme d’ouverture et pouvoir de dépenser au Canada

In power since January 2006, the leader of the Canadian Conservative party, Stephen Harper, promised to break with the previous governments’ “domineering” style of governance and to put into practice a new type of “open federalism.” Specifically, this approach involved correcting the fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces, taking measures to recognize Quebec’s specificity, and limiting the federal government’s recourse to an alleged spending power. This article briefly surveys the foundations of Canadian politics and the years when the Liberal party was in power, between 1993 and 2006, to assess the measures adopted by the Harper government, particularly with respect to the spending power. This power is not attributed in the constitution nor is it founded on clear jurisprudence, but Ottawa still claims and invokes it. Despite ther promises, the Conservatives have failed to offer a satisfactory formula for limiting its usage. So, Canada remains driven by the centralising process that has prevailed since the start of the 1980’s.

Party Members as an Electoral Linking Mechanism

While party membership figures are clearly in decline in several Western countries, different interpretations have been offered on the likely consequences of this trend. Some authors stress that members have lost most of their importance for political parties that increasingly rely on professionalized campaign techniques. Other scholars have expressed concern about the decline of party membership. They emphasize the fact that party members continue to function as an important linkage mechanism providing a structural alignment between the party and society (and thus also to potential voters). By means of an election forecasting model for Belgium, we test whether party membership figures still can be related to election results. Results show that party membership has a strong effect on election results, and furthermore, that this relation does not weaken during the period under investigation (1981-2010). The analysis also demonstrates that forecasting models can also be used in a complex multiparty system like Belgium.

Age, Period and Cohort effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and in this article, we first expand previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age-period-cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992-2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.

Physiotherapy practices and third party payers: issues in professional ethics in British Columbia

During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.

Physiotherapy practices and third party payers: issues in professional ethics in the Prairie provinces

During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.

Physiotherapy practices and third party payers: issues in professional ethics in Ontario

During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.

Physiotherapy practices and third party payers: issues in professional ethics in the Atlantic provinces

During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.

Physiotherapy practices and third party payers: issues in professional ethics in the Northern territories

During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.