Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

Study of the relationship between academic performance and socioeducative climates in gifted high school students

Il est évalué qu’entre 15 et 40 % des élèves surdoués performent à des niveaux inférieurs à leur potentiel (Seeley, 1994). Récemment, plusieurs chercheurs se sont plongés dans ce phénomène en tentant de l’expliquer. Par contre, une seule équipe de recherche s’est attardé sur l’impact des climats socioéducatifs sur la performance des surdoués, alors que ce lien est bien existant chez les jeunes non-doués. Cette recherche vise à explorer la relation possible entre les climats socioéducatifs, l’environnement familial et la performance scolaire chez les jeunes surdoués, afin de combler ce manque dans la littérature. Afin d’atteindre cet objectif, un échantillon de 1 885 participants de 3e secondaire provenant de la base de donnée de l’évaluation du programme SIAA furent étudiés afin de créer un modèle présentant l’effet des environnements sur la performance des jeunes surdoués, médié par la motivation. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’impact des environnements socioéducatifs et familiaux sur la performance des jeunes surdoués est minime, bien qu’il soit majeur chez les jeunes non-doués.