Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination

This paper develops a model of money demand where the opportunity cost of holding money is subject to regime changes. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are assumed to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to directly observe whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program but can construct probability inferences on the basis of available observations of inflation and money growth. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime. This specification is estimated and tested using data from the Israeli and Argentine high inflation periods. Results indicate the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government’s signaling might substantially simplify the inference problem and increase the speed of learning on the part of the agents. However, under certain conditions, it might increase the volatility of inflation. After the introduction of an inflation stabilization plan, the welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their real balances in the short-term, even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level.

Estimation of the Polak Model for a Developing Country Utilising the Currency Board : Case of Estonia.

Rapport de recherche

The Basle Accord: A Review and a Simple Model.

Rapport de recherche

Teaching ethics to employees of a state public utilities company in a developing country: A case study

Cette étude de cas est issue d’un module final de formation pour les employés du service public d’une agence de l’eau. Nous explorons les résultats de plusieurs stratégies utilisées pour souligner le besoin de changement dans les comportements individuels et institutionnels en vue d’améliorer les services aux clients. En particulier, nous explorons certaines manières d’ouvrir la discussion sur les pratiques de corruption de manière non-triviale sans offenser les sensibilités ou provoquer l’indifférence. Comme point de départ, il est demandé aux participants de relever les problèmes institutionnels qu’ils caractérisent comme éthiques, même si d’autres problèmes appartiennent à d’autres catégories identifiées plus tard. Pour éviter une approche purement théorique des devoirs et obligations envers les clients, ils sont dérivés de la mission de l’agence telle que définit par la loi qui l’a créée.

The experience of knowing without sharing the proximity of death due to cancer for family members in the Basque Country

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions: Is 1990-2010 Different?

Cet article étudie la sensibilité des estimations de certaines variables explicatives de la croissance économique dans des régressions en coupe transversale sur un ensemble de pays. Il applique un modèle modifié de l’analyse de sensibilité de Leamer (1983, 1985). Mes résultats confirment la conclusion de Levine and Renelt (1992), toutefois, je montre que plus de variables sont solidement corrélées à la croissance économique. Entre 1990-2010, je trouve que huit sur vingt cinq variables ont des coefficients significatifs et sont solidement corrélées à la croissance de long terme, notamment, les parts de l’investissement et des dépenses étatiques dans le PIB, la primauté du droit et une variable dichotomique pour les pays subsahariens. Je trouve aussi une preuve empirique solide de l'hypothèse de la convergence conditionnelle, ce qui est cohérent avec le modèle de croissance néoclassique.

Studying Your Own Country. Social Scientific Knowledge For Our Times and Places; Presidential Address to the Canadian Political Science Association, St Catharines, May 28, 2014

Political science is both a generalizing and an anchored, nationally defined, discipline. Too often, the first perspective tends to crowd out the latter, because it appears more prestigious, objective, or scientific. Behind the international/national dichotomy, there are indeed rival conceptions of social science, and important ontological, epistemological and methodological assumptions. This article discusses these assumptions and stresses the critical contribution of idiographic, single-outcome studies, the importance of producing relevant, usable knowledge, and the distinctive implications of studying one’s own country, where a scholar is also a citizen, involved in more encompassing national conversations. The aim is not to reject the generalizing, international perspective, or even the comparative approach, but rather to reaffirm the importance of maintaining as well, and in fact celebrating, the production of social scientific knowledge directly relevant for our own times and places.