Qu'en est-il de l'équivalence ricardienne dans un modèle à taux de change empirique ?

Rapport de recherche

Le modèle de convergence vu selon l'approche de Dan, Ben-David: une vérification empirique par rapport au 8e cycle du GATT; le cas de l'ALENA versus l'Union Européenne (période 1970-2000).

Rapport de recherche

Le modèle statistique d'équilibre du comportement dans les jeux expérimentaux: applications aux contributions volontaires aux biens publics.

Rapport de recherche

Modèle de gravité appliqué à l'Australie.

Rapport de recherche

Approche par la distribution des pertes pour le risque opérationnel: un modèle bayésien de mélange de distribution avec fusion des données internes et externes pour la sévérité des pertes.

Rapport de recherche

L'impôt à taux unique: les effets sur l'offre de travail, des ménages canadiens et américains.

Rapport de recherche

Modèle théorique sur la participation des chercheurs aux conférences.

Rapport de recherche

Genre, santé et développement: les inégalités entre les hommes et les femmes dans la santé constituent-elles un frein au développement? Estimation empirique en coupe transversale dans un modèle Mankiw – Romer – Weil.

Rapport de recherche

Analyse bayésienne d'un modèle pour les changements de prix de titres échangés à haute fréquence sur les marchés financiers.

Rapport de recherche

Les effets sur l'emploi manufacturier du Mexique de l'ouverture commerciale de la Chine dans les années 1988-2002.

Rapport de recherche

L'utilisation du bootstrap pour tester la stationnarité des taux de change réels avec un modèle non linéaire. L'évidence pour le Canada.

Rapport de recherche

Latent Variable Models for Stochastic Discount Factors.

Latent variable models in finance originate both from asset pricing theory and time series analysis. These two strands of literature appeal to two different concepts of latent structures, which are both useful to reduce the dimension of a statistical model specified for a multivariate time series of asset prices. In the CAPM or APT beta pricing models, the dimension reduction is cross-sectional in nature, while in time-series state-space models, dimension is reduced longitudinally by assuming conditional independence between consecutive returns, given a small number of state variables. In this paper, we use the concept of Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) or pricing kernel as a unifying principle to integrate these two concepts of latent variables. Beta pricing relations amount to characterize the factors as a basis of a vectorial space for the SDF. The coefficients of the SDF with respect to the factors are specified as deterministic functions of some state variables which summarize their dynamics. In beta pricing models, it is often said that only the factorial risk is compensated since the remaining idiosyncratic risk is diversifiable. Implicitly, this argument can be interpreted as a conditional cross-sectional factor structure, that is, a conditional independence between contemporaneous returns of a large number of assets, given a small number of factors, like in standard Factor Analysis. We provide this unifying analysis in the context of conditional equilibrium beta pricing as well as asset pricing with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates and other state variables. We address the general issue of econometric specifications of dynamic asset pricing models, which cover the modern literature on conditionally heteroskedastic factor models as well as equilibrium-based asset pricing models with an intertemporal specification of preferences and market fundamentals. We interpret various instantaneous causality relationships between state variables and market fundamentals as leverage effects and discuss their central role relative to the validity of standard CAPM-like stock pricing and preference-free option pricing.

How Important Are Intergenerational Transfers of Time? a Macroeconomic Analysis.

This paper examines the implications of intergenerational transfers of time and money for labor supply and capital accumulation. Although intergenerational transfers of time in the form of grandparenting are as substantial as monetary transfers in the data, little is known about the role and importance of time transfers. In this paper, we calibrate an overlapping generations model extended to allow for both time and monetary transfers to the US economy. We use simulations to show that time transfers have important positive effects on capital accumulation and that these effects can be as significant as those of monetary transfers. However, while time transfers increase the labor supply of the young, monetary transfers produce an income effect that tends to decrease work effort. We also find that child care tax credits have little impact on parental time and money transfers, but that a universal child tax credit would increase the welfare of the rich while the poor would benefit from a means-tested program.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

Information Sharing and the Stability of Cooperation in Research Joint Ventures.

The model studies information sharing and the stability of cooperation in cost reducing Research Joint Ventures (RJVs). In a four-stage game-theoretic framework, firms decide on participation in a RJV, information sharing, R&D expenditures, and output. An important feature of the model is that voluntary information sharing between cooperating firms increases information leakage from the RJV to outsiders. It is found that it is the spillover from the RJV to outsiders which determines the decision of insiders whether to share information, while it is the spillover affecting all firms which determines the level of information sharing within the RJV. RJVs representing a larger portion of firms in the industry are more likely to share information. It is also found that when sharing information is costless, firms never choose intermediate levels of information sharing : they share all the information or none at all. The size of the RJV is found to depend on three effects : a coordination effect, an information sharing effect, and a competition effect. Depending on the relative magnitudes of these effects, the size of the RJV may increase or decrease with spillovers. The effect of information sharing on the profitability of firms as well as on welfare is studied.