Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.

Armor coats, inverse grading, and streambed scour in selected streams of Southern Ontario and Western New York /

Surface size analyses of Twenty and Sixteen Mile Creeks, the Grand and Genesee Rivers and Cazenovia Creek show three distinct types of bed-surface sediment: 1) a "continuous" armor coat which has a mean size of -6.5 phi and coarser, 2) a "discontinuous" armor coat which has a mean size of approximately -6.0 phi and 3) a bed with no armor coat which has a mean surface size of -5.0 phi and finer. The continuous armor coat completely covers and protects the subsurface from the flow. The discontinuous armor coat is composed of intermittently-spaced surface clasts, which provide the subsurface with only limited protection from the flow. The bed with no armor coat allows complete exposure of the subsurface to the flow. The subsurface beneath the continuous armor coats of Twenty and Sixteen Mile Creeks is possibly modified by a "vertical winnowing" process when the armor coat is p«natrat«d. This process results in a welld «v«loped inversely graded sediment sequence.vertical winnowing is reduced beneath the discontinuous armor coats of the Grand and Genesee Rivers. The reduction of vertical winnowing results in a more poorly-developed inverse grading than that found in Twenty and sixteen Mile Creeks. The streambed of Cazenovia Creek normally is not armored resulting in a homogeneous subsurface which shows no modification by vertical winnowing. This streambed forms during waning or moderate flows, suggesting it does not represent the maximum competence of the stream. Each population of grains in the subsurface layers of Twenty and sixteen Mile Creeks has been modified by vertical winnowing and does not represent a mode of transport. Each population in the subsurface layers beneath a discontinuous armor coat may partially reflect a transport mode. These layers are still inversely graded suggesting that each population is affected to some degree by vertical winnowing. The populations for sediment beneath a surface which is not armored are probably indicative of transport modes because such sediment has not been modified by vertical winnowing. Bed photographs taken in each of the five streams before and after the 1982-83 snow-melt show that the probability of movement for the surface clasts is a function of grain size. The greatest probability of of clast movement and scour depth of this study were recorded on Cazenovia Creek in areas where no armor coat is present. The scour depth in the armored beds of Twenty and Sixteen Mile Creeks is related to the probability of movement for a given mean surface size.

Preliminary epidemiological study of latent tuberculosis in Mexican agricultural workers in the Niagara region, Canada

It is well documented that the majority of Tuberculosis (TB) cases diagnosed in Canada are related to foreign-bom persons from TB high-burden countries. The Canadian seasonal agricultural workers program (SAWP) operating with Mexico allows migrant workers to enter the country with a temporary work permit for up to 8 months. Preiimnigration screening of these workers by both clinical examination and chest X-ray (CXR) reduces the risk of introducing cases of active pulmonary TB to Canada, but screening for latent TB (LTBI) is not routinely done. Studies carried out in industrialized nations with high immigration from TBendemic countries provide data of lifetime LTBI reactivation of around 10% but little is known about reactivation rates within TB-endemic countries where new infections (or reinfections) may be impossible to distinguish from reactivation. Migrant populations like the SAWP workers who spend considerable amounts of time in both Canada and TBendemic rural areas in Mexico are a unique population in terms of TB epidemiology. However, to our knowledge no studies have been undertaken to explore either the existence of LTBI among Mexican workers, the probability of reactivation or the workers' exposure to TB cases while back in their communities before returning the following season. Being aware of their LTBI status may help workers to exercise healthy behaviours to avoid TB reactivation and therefore continue to access the SAWP. In order to assess the prevalence of LTBI and associated risk factors among Mexican migrant workers a preliminary cross sectional study was designed to involve a convenience sample of the Niagara Region's Mexican workers in 2007. Research ethics clearance was granted by Brock University. Individual questionnaires were administered to collect socio-demographic and TB-related epidemiological data as well as TB knowledge and awareness levels. Cellular immunity to M tuberculosis was assessed by both an Interferon-y release assay (lGRA), QuantiFERON -TB Gold In-Tube (QFf™) and by the tuberculin skin test (TSn using Mantoux. A total of 82 Mexican workers (out of 125 invited) completed the study. Most participants were male (80%) and their age ranged from 22 to 65 years (mean 38.5). The prevalence of LTBI was 34% using TST and 18% using QFTTM. As previously reported, TST (using ~lOmm cut-off) showed a sensitivity of 93.3% and a specificity of 79.1 %. These findings at the moment cannot predict the probability of progression to active TB; only longitudinal cohort studies of this population can ascertain this outcome. However, based on recent publications, lORA positive individuals may have up to 14% probability of reactivation within the next two years. Although according to the SA WP guidelines, all workers undergo TB screening before entering or re-entering Canada, CXR examination requirements showed to be inconsistent for this population: whereas 100% of the workers coming to Canada for the first time reported having the procedure done, only 31 % of returning participants reported having had a CXR in the past year. None of the participants reported ever having a CXR compatible with TB which was consistent with the fact that none had ever been diagnosed with active pulmonary TB and with only 3.6% reporting close contact with a person with active TB in their lifetime. Although Mexico reports that 99% of popUlation is fully immunized against TB within the first year of age, only 85.3% of participants reported receiving BOC vaccine in childhood. Conversely, even when TST is not part of the routine TB screening in endemic countries, a suqDrisingly high 25.6% reported receiving a TST in the past. In regards to TB knowledge and awareness, 74% of the studied population had previous knowledge about (active) TB, 42% correctly identified active TB symptomatology, 4.8% identified the correct route of transmission, 4.8% knew about the existence of LTBI, 3.6% knew that latent TB could reactivate and 48% recognized TB as treatable and curable. Of all variables explored as potential risk factors for LTBI, age was the only one which showed statistical significance. Significant associations could not be proven for other known variables (such as sex, TB contact, history of TB) probably because of the small sample size and the homogeneity of the sample. Screening for LTBI by TST (high sensitivity) followed by confirmation with QFT''"'^ (high specificity) suggests to be a good strategy especially for immigrants from TB high-burden countries. After educational sessions, workers positive for LTBI gained greater knowledge about the signs and symptoms of TB reactivation as well as the risk factors commonly associated with reactivation. Additionally, they were more likely to attend their annual health check up and request a CXR exam to monitor for TB reactivation.

Effects of credit rating change on risk-taking

This thesis investigates whether there are changes in risk-taking behavior following an upgrade or downgrade in credit ratings. Research on effects of rating changes on capital markets is well-documented but the literature on how rating changes may affect firm behavior is sparse. Following, a downgrade in credit rating, managers may increase risk-taking to improve their overall performance or reduce risk-taking following upgrades to ensure that their performance is assessed more on the basis of what they may deem success in the form of an upgrade. Using a sample of firms trading in the U.S from 1994-2013, we find evidence of change in risk-taking behavior. We use cross-sectional regressions and matching using propensity scores and Barber and Lyon (1997) methodology to measure changes in risk-taking and we do find evidence of changes in managerial risk-taking behavior. Furthermore, we find that the direction of change (increase or decrease) in some cases is dependent on the type of measure rather than the type of rating change.

Indenture of memorandum of an agreement between S.D. Woodruff and James L. Burton and M. Burton

Indenture of memorandum of an agreement between S.D. Woodruff of St. Catharines and James L. Burton and M. Burton, both of Barrie, trading under the name of Burton and Bro. that Burton and Bro. would buy all the pine timber located in berths 192 and 198. Burton and Bro. agrees to have all timber cut. The agreement is signed by S.D. Woodruff and Burton and Bro. This document is badly burned along the left hand side. This does not affect the text, July 11, 1877.