THE PREVALENCE AND PREDICTION OF PULMONARY FIBROSIS IN AN

This thesis describes an ancillary project to the Early Diagnosis of Mesothelioma and Lung Cancer in Prior Asbestos Workers study and was conducted to determine the effects of asbestos exposure, pulmonary function and cigarette smoking in the prediction of pulmonary fibrosis. 613 workers who were occupationally exposed to asbestos for an average of 25.9 (SD=14.69) years were sampled from Sarnia, Ontario. A structured questionnaire was administered during a face-to-face interview along with a low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) of the thorax. Of them, 65 workers (10.7%, 95%CI 8.12—12.24) had LDCT-detected pulmonary fibrosis. The model predicting fibrosis included the variables age, smoking (dichotomized), post FVC % splines and post- FEV1% splines. This model had a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.738. The calibration of the model was evaluated with R statistical program and the bootstrap optimism-corrected calibration slope was 0.692. Thus, our model demonstrated moderate predictive performance.