Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

An empirical study of in-school and out-of-school day care

The purpose of this study was to determine if there were differences between in-school and out-of-school day care centres. Five centres housed in public schools and five housed in other locations were selected for the research. Aquality assessment was administered in each centre which examined the following components - physical environment, adult social structure and socia-emotional environment, children's socia-emotional environment, cognitive stimulation program and toys and equipment. Quantitative analysis using simple t-tests showed a significant difference between in-school and out-of-school day cares for the physical environment variable. Differences approached significance for the children's socia-emotional environment variable as well as overall quality. Qualitative analysis using a triangulated methodology revealed noticeable differences for every variable. The researcher concluded that both the quality of the physical environment and the capabilities of the administrators strongly influence the quality of the day care environment. This study also included an assessment of children's attitude toward learning. No significant difference was found between in-school and out-of-school centres.

Effects of sample solvent composition and injection volume on chromatographic peak profiles of methyl w- benzimidazolecarbamate and 3-butyl1-2,4-dioxo[1,2-a]-s- triazinobenzimidazole in RP-HPLC

The effects of sample solvent composition and the injection volume, on the chromatographic peak profiles of two carbamate derivatives, methyl 2-benzimidazolecarbamate (MBC) and 3-butyl-2,4-dioxo[1,2-a]-s-triazinobenzimidazole (STB), were studied using reverse phase high performance liquid chromatograph. The study examined the effects of acetonitrile percentage in the sample solvent from 5 to 50%, effects of methanol percentage from 5 to 50%, effects of pH increase from 4.42 to 9.10, and effect of increasing buffer concentration from ° to 0.12M. The effects were studied at constant and increasing injection mass and at four injection volumes of 10, 50, 100 and 200 uL. The study demonstrated that the amount and the type of the organic solvents, the pH, and the buffer strength of the sample solution can have a pronounced effect on the peak heights, peak widths, and retention times of compounds analysed. MBC, which is capable of intramolecular hydrogen bonding and has no tendency to ionize, showed a predictable increase .in band broadening and a decrease in retention times at higher eluting strengths of the sample solvent. STB, which has a tendency to ionize or to strongly interact with the sample solvent, was influenced in various ways by the changes in ths sample solvent composition. The sample solvent effects became more pronounced as the injection volume increased and as the percentage of organic solvent in the sample solution became greater. The peak height increases for STB at increasing buffer concentrations became much more pronounced at higher analyte concentrations. It was shown that the widely accepted procedure of dissolving samples in the mobile phase does not yield the most efficient chromatograms. For that reason samples should be dissolved in the solutions with higher aqueous content than that of the mobile phase whenever possible. The results strongly recommend that all the samples and standards, regardless whether the standards are external or internal, be analysed at a constant sample composition and a constant injection volume.

Out of the darkness and into the light : a study of inauthentic and authentic speech

Introduction Man can be described as the being who shows himself in speech, and from birth to death is continually speaking. Communication is so close to us, so woven into our very being, that we have little understanding of the way it is constituted; for it is as hard to obtain distance from communication as it is to obtain distance from ourselves. All communication is not alike. There are two basic modesl of communication, the inauthentic and the authentic, between which there occurs a constant tension. It is in the inauthentic mode, points out Heidegger, that we find ourselves "proximately and for the most part"; 1. Being and Time, pg. 68 Dasein decides as to the way it will comport itself in taking up its task of having being as an issue for it. " •.• it~, in its very being 'choose' itself and win itself; it can also lose itself and never win itself or only "seem" to do so. But only in so far as it is essentially something which can be authentic--that is, something of its own--can it have lost itself and not yet won itself." 2. therefore Heidegger also terms it "everydayness".2 Caught up in the world of everydayness, our speaking covers over and conceals3 our rootedness in being, leaving us in the darkness of untruth. The image of darkness may be inferred from Heidegger's use of the image of "clearing,,4 to depict being as 2. ibid. pg. 69 "Dasein's average everydayness, however, is not to be taken as a mere 'aspect'. Here too, and even in the mode of inauthenticity, the structure of existentiality lies ~ priori and here too Dasein's being is an issue for it in a definite way; and Dasein comports itself towards it the mode of average everydayness, even if this is only the mode of fleeing in the face of it and forgetfulness thereof." 3. ibid. pg. 59 "covering over" and "concealing" are 1;yays Dasein tries to flee its task of having being as an issue for itself. " ••• This being can be covered up so extensively that it becomes forgotten and no question arises about it or its meaning ••• n How everyday speaking accomplishes this will be taken up in detail in the second chapter which explores Dasein's everyday speech. 4. ibid, pg. 171 lI ••• we have in mind nothing other than the Existential - ontological structure of this entity (Dasein), that it is in such a way as to be its 'there'. To say that it is -' illuminated' [tlerleuchtet"] means that as Being-in-theworld it is cleared [gelichtetJ in itself7 not through any other entity, but in such a way that it is itself the clearing. Only for an entity which is eXistentially cleared in this way does what is present-at-hand become accessible in the light or hidden in the dark •••• " 3 dis-coveredness and truth. Our first task will be to explore the nature of communication in general and then to explore each of the modes manifested in turn. The structure of the inauthentic mode of communication can be explored by asking the following questions: What is this speaking about? Who is it that is speaking and who is spoken to? Does this speaking show man in his speech? The authentic mode is distinguished by the rarity with which we encounter it; as the inauthentic conceals, so the authentic reveals our rootedness in being. Yet this rarity makes it difficult to delineate its elusive structure clearly. Its constituent elements can be brought into focus by asking the same questions of this mode that we previously asked of the inauthentic mode. Our initial response to the disclosure of the authentic mode is to attempt to abandon the inauthentic mode and leave the darkness behind dwelling only in the "lighted place". All through the ages, some men pushing this to extreme, have, upon uncovering their relatedness to being, experienced a deep longing to dwell in such a "place" of pure truth and oft times denigrated or attempted to exclude the everyday world. Such 4. flight is twice mistaken: first it atbempts to fix truth as unchanging and static and secondly, it opposes this to untruth which it seeks to abolish. This is both the wrong view of truth and the wrong view of untruth as Heidegger points out in The Origin of The-Work of Art: The Way-to-be of truth, i.e., of discoveredness, is under the sway of refusal. But this refusal is no lack or privation, as if truth could be simply discoveredness rid of all covers. If it could be that, it would no longer be itself . ••• Truth in its way-to-be is untruth.5 Pure light is not the nature of Being nor is pure unconcealedness possible for man. Failure to remember this is the failure to realize that communication destroys itself in such flight because it no longer maintains the contingency of its task, i.e., the dis-closedness of being. We are reminded of the strong attraction this flight from darkness held for Plato. Light, truth and Being are all beyond the darkness and have nothing to do with it. In Book VII of the R~public, Socrates' explanation of the Allegory of the Cave to Glaucon points to a decided preference men have for the "lighted place". 5. The Origin Of The Work Of Art, pg. 42 5. Come then, I said, and join me in this further thought, and do not be surprised that those who attained to this height are not willing to occupy themselves with the affairs of men, but their souls ever feel the upward urge and yearning for that sojourn above. For this, I take it, is likely if in this point too the likeliness of our image holds. 6 Despite the attraction to pure truth, human communication is more complex than putting down one mode of communication and picking up another. Due to the fact that we are always on the way, the title of my thesis will have to be amended: OUT OF THE DARKNESS AND INTO THE LIGHT--AGAIN AND AGAIN. It must be this way because this is what it means to be human. This is the point made by Mephisto to Faust in pointing out that man, standing between God and the devil, needs both darkness and light: Er findet sich in einem ewigen Gl~t Uns hat er in die Finsternis gebracht, Und euch taugt einzig Tag und Nacht. 7 6. Republic z (517 c & d) It should be noted however, that while the philosopherking must be compelled to return to the cave for purely political reasons, once he has taken adequate view of the "brightest region of being" he has the full truth and his return to darkness adds nothing to the truth. 7. Faust, pg. 188 6. This thesis proposes to examine the grounds that give rise to communication, uncovering the structure of its inauthentic and authentic modes and paying close attention to tpeir interrelationship and to their relationship to language as "the house of Being": language that both covers and opens up man's rootedness in Being, transforming him as he moves along his way, taking up his "ownmost task" of becoming who he is. roots. He is the being who shows himself inn that reflects his forgetfulness or remembrance of his rootedness in being. Man comes into an already existent world and is addressedl through things in the world which are c

The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

The Cutting out of the Caroline (1838)

Two newspaper clippings from the Montreal Herald of 1838 and an essay clipped from a book, handsewn into a booklet with paper cover and handwritten title and notes. The burning of the Caroline / Susanna Moodie -- The cutting out of the Caroline : a true story / by Francis W. Rowsell -- Juvenile courage and patriotism : instanced in Canada, during the disturbances at the close of the year 1837

Canadian investors and the discount on closed-end funds

Small investors' sentiment has been proposed by behaviouralists to explain the existence and behavior of discount on closed-end funds (CEFD). The empirical tests of this sentiment hypothesis so far provide equivocal results. Besides, most of out-of-sample tests outside U.S. are not robust in the sense that they fail to well control other firm characteristics and risk factors that may explain stock return and to provide a formal cross-sectional test of the link between CEFD and stock return. This thesis explores the role of CEFD in asset pricing and further validates CEFD as a sentiment proxy in Canadian context and augments the extant studies by examining the redemption feature inherent in Canadian closed-end funds and by enhancing the robustness of the empirical tests. Our empirical results document differential behaviors in discounts between redeemable funds and non-redeemable funds. However, we don't find supportive evidence of CEFD as a priced factor. Specifically, the stocks with different exposures to CEFD fail to provide significantly different average return. Nor does CEFD provide significant incremental explanatory power, after controlling other well-known firm characteristics and risk factors, in cross-sectional as well as time-series variation of stock return. This evidence, together with the findings from our direct test of CEFD as a sentiment index, suggests that CEFD, even the discount on traditional non-redeemable closed-end funds, is unlikely to be driven by elusive sentiment in Canada.