Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.

Using stimulus equivalence to teach monetary skills to school-age children with autism

The present study evaluated the use of stimulus equivalence in teaching monetary skills to school aged children with autism. An AB within-subject design with periodic probes was used. At pretest, three participants demonstrated relation DA, an auditory-visual relation (matching dictated coin values to printed coin prices). Using a three-choice match-to-sample procedure, with a multi-component intervention package, these participants were taught two trained relations, BA (matching coins to printed prices) and CA (matching coin combinations to printed prices). Two participants achieved positive tests of equivalence, and the third participant demonstrated emergent performances with a symmetric and transitive relation. In addition, two participants were able to show generalization of learned skills with a parent, in a second naturalistic setting. The present research replicates and extends the results of previous studies by demonstrating that stimulus equivalence can be used to teach an adaptive skill to children with autism.

Arsenic speciation by ion-exchange chromatography with on- line determination by hydride generation: electronic modification of the D.C. plasma by photon counting

A method using L-cysteine for the determination of arsenous acid (As(III)), arsenic acid (As(V)), monomethylarsonic acid (MMAA), and dimethylarsinic acid (DMAA) by hydride generation was demonstrated. The instrument used was a d.c. plasma atomic emission spectrometer (OCP-AES). Complete recovery was reported for As(III), As(V), and DMAA while 86% recovery was reported for MMAA. Detection limits were determined, as arsenic for the species listed previously, to be 1.2, 0.8, 1.1, and 1.0 ngemL-l, respectively. Precision values, at 50 ngemL-1 arsenic concentration, were f.80/0, 2.50/0, 2.6% and 2.6% relative standard deviation, respectively. The L-cysteine reagent was compared directly with the conventional hydride generation technique which uses a potassium iodide-hydrochloric acid medium. Recoveries using L-cysteine when compared with the conventional method provided the following results: similar recoveries were obtained for As(III), slightly better recoveries were obtained for As(V) and MMAA, and significantly better recoveries for DMAA. In addition, tall and sharp peak shapes were observed for all four species when using L-cysteine. The arsenic speciation method involved separation by ion exchange .. high perfonnance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with on-line hydride generation using the L.. cysteine reagent and measurement byOCP-AES. Total analysis time per sample was 12 min while the time between the start of subsequent runs was approximately 20 min. A binary . gradient elution program, which incorporated the following two eluents: 0.01 and 0.5 mM tri.. sodium citrate both containing 5% methanol (v/v) and both at a pH of approximately 9, was used during the separation by HPLC. Recoveries of the four species which were measured as peak area, and were normalized against As(III), were 880/0, 290/0, and 40% for DMAA, MMAA and As(V), respectively. Resolution factors between adjacent analyte peaks of As(III) and DMAA was 1.1; DMAA and MMAA was 1.3; and MMAA and As(V) was 8.6. During the arsenic speciation study, signals from the d.c. plasma optical system were measured using a new photon-signal integrating device. The_new photon integrator developed and built in this laboratory was based on a previously published design which was further modified to reflect current available hardware. This photon integrator was interfaced to a personal computer through an AID convertor. The .photon integrator has adjustable threshold settings and an adjustable post-gain device.

Exchange energy calculation of He-He with supermolecular one-matrix

Exch~nge energy of the He-He system is calculated using the one-density matrix which has been modified according to the supermolecular density formula quoted by Kolos. The exchange energy integrals are computed analytically and by the Monte Carlo method. The results obtained from both ways compared favourably,with the results obtained from the SCF program HONDO

Exchange reactions of organic halides and organo-silicon compounds with boron tribromide and boron triiodide

Reactions of the boron halides with organic halides and organo-silicon compounds have been investigated. The results show exchange of halogens between the BX3 (X = Br# 1) and the organic halidef exchange of the halogen of the C-X bond being proved. The rates of halogen exchange vary. Reaction of the heavier halides with organo-silicon compounds indicated that the silicon-carbon bonds ruptured in the absence of electronegative atom attached to the silicon. The presence of an electronegative atom (halogen or oxygen) attached to the silicon causes the bond between the silicon and the electronegative atom to be preferentially broken. Products of exchange reactions of the boron halides and the organic halides or the organo-silicon compounds were studied by use of 1H NMR and GC/MS. From these results some possible mechanisms for the exchange reactions are postulated, but further work is indicated to prove the real courses of the reactions

NMR studies of the exchange reactions of CH3CN.BX3 with excess CH3CN /|nJoseph Fogelman. -- 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : [s. n.],

Exchange reactions between molecular complexes and excess acid or base are well known and have been extensively surveyed in the literature(l). Since the exchange mechanism will, in some way involve the breaking of the labile donor-acceptor bond, it follows that a discussion of the factors relating to bonding in molecular complexes will be relevant. In general, a strong Lewis base and a strong Lewis acid form a stable adduct provided that certain stereochemical requirements are met. A strong Lewis base has the following characteristics (1),(2) (i) high electron density at the donor site. (ii) a non-bonded electron pair which has a low ionization potential (iii) electron donating substituents at the donor atom site. (iv) facile approach of the site of the Lewis base to the acceptor site as dictated by the steric hindrance of the substituents. Examples of typical Lewis bases are ethers, nitriles, ketones, alcohols, amines and phosphines. For a strong Lewis acid, the following properties are important:( i) low electron density at the acceptor site. (ii) electron withdrawing substituents. (iii) substituents which do not interfere with the close approach of the Lewis base. (iv) availability of a vacant orbital capable of accepting the lone electron pair of the donor atom. Examples of Lewis acids are the group III and IV halides such (M=B, AI, Ga, In) and MX4 - (M=Si, Ge, Sn, Pb). The relative bond strengths of molecular complexes have been investigated by:- (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v] (vi) dipole moment measurements (3). shifts of the carbonyl peaks in the IIIR. (4) ,(5), (6) .. NMR chemical shift data (4),(7),(8),(9). D.V. and visible spectrophotometric shifts (10),(11). equilibrium constant data (12), (13). heats of dissociation and heats of reactions (l~), (16), (17), (18), (19). Many experiments have bben carried out on boron trihalides in order to determine their relative acid strengths. Using pyridine, nitrobenzene, acetonitrile and trimethylamine as reference Lewis bases, it was found that the acid strength varied in order:RBx3 > BC1 3 >BF 3 • For the acetonitrile-boron trihalide and trimethylamine boron trihalide complexes in nitrobenzene, an-NMR study (7) showed that the shift to lower field was. greatest for the BB~3 adduct ~n~ smallest for the BF 3 which is in agreement with the acid strengths. If electronegativities of the substituents were the only important effect, and since c~ Br ,one would expect the electron density at the boron nucleus to vary as BF3

Interaction and knowledge exchange among academic business librarians in Ontario

A research project submitted to the Faculty of Extension, University of Alberta in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Communications and Technology in 2005.

Clinician-Perceived Bridges and Barriers to Parental Implementation of Picture Exchange Communication System (PECS): An evaluation.

Picture Exchange Communication System (PECS) is an augmentative and alternative communicative system that improves communication and decreases problem behaviors in children with Developmental Disabilities and Autism. The mediator model is a validated approach that clinicians use to train parents to perform evidence-based interventions. Parental non-adherence to treatment recommendations is a documented problem. This qualitative study investigated clinician-perceived factors that influence parental adherence to PECS recommendations. Three focus groups (n=8) were conducted with Speech Language Pathologists and Behavior Therapists experienced in providing parents with PECS recommendations. Constant comparison analysis was used. In general, clinicians believed that PECS was complex to implement. Thirty-one bridges were identified to overcome complexity. Twenty-two barriers and 6 other factors also impacted parental adherence. Strategies to address these factors were proposed based on a review of the literature. Future research will be performed to validate these findings using parents and a larger sample size.

Oxygen exchange in galls of Eurosta solidaginis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Hypoxia in plant tissue should affect animals living within. Gallmakers stimulate their plant hosts to produce the gall they inhabit and feed on, and also influence the gall phenotype for other adaptations, such as defense against predators. The potential for hypoxia in galls of Eurosta solidaginis was studied in the context of potential adaptations to gall oxygen level, using a combination of direct measurement, mathematical modelling, and respirometry on both gallmakers and hosts. Modelling results suggested mild hypoxia tolerable to the larva persists for most of the growth season, whereas more severe hypoxia may occur earlier in fully-grown young galls. Field data from one of the two years studied showed hypoxia more severe than expected, and coincided with adverse weather conditions and high larval mortality. The hypoxia may be related to host response to adverse weather. Whether hypoxia directly caused larval mortality requires further study.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Macroeconomic News and LOB in Foreign Exchange ECN Market

We investigate the macroeconomic news effect on the dynamics of the limit order books (LOB) for euro-dollar ECN market in different economic states between Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2009. Using a VAR-STR model on the news surprise, pure news, aggregated good and bad news, we show that news effects on the LOB dynamics vary in different states of economy. The LOB dynamics are measured by depth, spread, slope and volatility. In contract to slope and volatility, depth and spread strongly respond to news surprise and pure news during recession and expansion. These characteristics are more affected by aggregated good and bad news during expansion. News effects are robust to alternative characteristic measures, the different sides of the LOB and the different levels in the LOB.