The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

Diatoms as indicators of lake trophic status

Relationships between surface sediment diatom assemblages and lake trophic status were studied in 50 Canadian Precambrian Shield lakes in the Muskoka-Haliburton and southern Ontario regions. The purpose of this study was to develop mathematical regression models to infer lake trophic status from diatom assemblage data. To achieve this goal, however, additional investigations dealing with the evaluation of lake trophic status and the autecological features of key diatom species were carried out. Because a unifying index and classification for lake trophic status was not available, a new multiple index was developed in this study, by the computation of the physical, chemical and biological data from 85 south Ontario lakes. By using the new trophic parameter, the lake trophic level (TL) was determined: TL = 1.37 In[1 +(TP x Chl-a / SD)], where, TP=total phosphorus, Chl-a=chlorophyll-a and SD=Secchi depth. The boundaries between 7 lake trophic categories (Ultra-oligotrophic lakes: 0-0.24; Oligotrophic lakes: 0.241-1.8; Oligomesotrophic lakes: 1.813.0; Mesotrophic lakes: 3.01-4.20; Mesoeutrophic lakes: 4.21-5.4; Eutrophic lakes: 5.41-10 and Hyper-eutrophic lakes: above 10) were established. The new trophic parameter was more convenient for management of water quality, communication to the public and comparison with other lake trophic status indices than many of the previously published indices because the TL index attempts to Increase understanding of the characteristics of lakes and their comprehensive trophic states. It is more reasonable and clear for a unifying determination of true trophic states of lakes. Diatom specIes autecology analysis was central to this thesis. However, the autecological relationship of diatom species and lake trophic status had not previously been well documented. Based on the investigation of the diatom composition and variety of species abundance in 30 study lakes, the distribution optima of diatom species were determined. These determinations were based on a quantitative method called "weighted average" (Charles 1985). On this basis, the diatom species were classified into five trophic categories (oligotrophic, oligomesotrophic, mesotrophic, mesoeutrophic and eutrophic species groups). The resulting diatom trophic status autecological features were used in the regressIon analysis between diatom assemblages and lake trophic status. When the TL trophic level values of the 30 lakes were regressed against their fi ve corresponding diatom trophic groups, the two mathematical equations for expressing the assumed linear relationship between the diatom assemblages composition were determined by (1) uSIng a single regression technique: Trophic level of lake (TL) = 2.643 - 7.575 log (Index D) (r = 0.88 r2 = 0.77 P = 0.0001; n = 30) Where, Index D = (0% + OM% + M%)/(E% + ME% + M%); 4 (2) uSIng a' multiple regressIon technique: TL=4.285-0.076 0%- 0.055 OM% - 0.026 M% + 0.033 ME% + 0.065 E% (r=0.89, r2=0.792, P=O.OOOl, n=30) There was a significant correlation between measured and diatom inferred trophic levels both by single and multiple regressIon methods (P < 0.0001, n=20), when both models were applied to another 20 test lakes. Their correlation coefficients (r2 ) were also statistically significant (r2 >0.68, n=20). As such, the two transfer function models between diatoms and lake trophic status were validated. The two models obtained as noted above were developed using one group of lakes and then tested using an entirely different group of lakes. This study indicated that diatom assemblages are sensitive to lake trophic status. As indicators of lake trophic status, diatoms are especially useful in situations where no local trophic information is available and in studies of the paleotrophic history of lakes. Diatom autecological information was used to develop a theory assessing water quality and lake trophic status.

Reactivity characteristics of cytochrome c, cytochrome oxidase and the electrostatic cytochrome c - cytochrome oxidase complex /

The mechanism whereby cytochrome £ oxidase catalyses elec-. tron transfer from cytochrome £ to oxygen remains an unsolved problem. Polarographic and spectrophotometric activity measurements of purified, particulate and soluble forms of beef heart mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase presented in this thesis confirm the following characteristics of the steady-state kinetics with respect to cytochrome £: (1) oxidation of ferrocytochrome c is first order under all conditions. -(2) The relationship between sustrate concentration and velocity is of the Michaelis-Menten type over a limited range of substrate. concentrations at high ionic strength. (3) ~he reaction rate is independent from oxygen concentration until very low levels of oxygen. (4) "Biphasic" kinetic plots of enzyme activity as a function of substrate concentration are found when the range of cytochrome c concentrations is extended; the biphasicity ~ is more apparent in low ionic strength buffer. These results imply two binding sites for cytochrome £ on the oxidase; one of high affinity and one of low affinity with Km values of 1.0 pM and 3.0 pM, respectively, under low ionic strength conditions. (5) Inhibition of the enzymic rate by azide is non-c~mpetitive with respect to cytochrome £ under all conditions indicating an internal electron transfer step, and not binding or dissociation of £ from the enzyme is rate limiting. The "tight" binding of cytochrome '£ to cytochrome c oxidase is confirmed in column chromatographic experiments. The complex has a cytochrome £:oxidase ratio of 1.0 and is dissociated in media of high ionic strength. Stopped-flow spectrophotometric studies of the reduction of equimolar mixtures and complexes of cytochrome c and the oxidase were initiated in an attempt to assess the functional relevance of such a complex. Two alternative routes -for reduction of the oxidase, under conditions where the predominant species is the £ - aa3 complex, are postulated; (i) electron transfer via tightly bound cytochrome £, (ii) electron transfer via a small population of free cytochrome c interacting at the "loose" binding site implied from kinetic studies. It is impossible to conclude, based on the results obtained, which path is responsible for the reduction of cytochrome a. The rate of reduction by various reductants of free cytochrome £ in high and low ionic strength and of cytochrome £ electrostatically bound to cytochrome oxidase was investigated. Ascorbate, a negatively charged reagent, reduces free cytochrome £ with a rate constant dependent on ionic strength, whereas neutral reagents TMPD and DAD were relatively unaffected by ionic strength in their reduction of cytochrome c. The zwitterion cysteine behaved similarly to uncharged reductants DAD and TI~PD in exhibiting only a marginal response to ionic strength. Ascorbate reduces bound cytochrome £ only slowly, but DAD and TMPD reduce bound cytochrome £ rapidly. Reduction of cytochrome £ by DAD and TMPD in the £ - aa3 complex was enhanced lO-fold over DAD reduction of free £ and 4-fold over TMPD reduction of free c. Thus, the importance of ionic strength on the reactivity of cytochrome £ was observed with the general conclusion being that on the cytochrome £ molecule areas for anion (ie. phosphate) binding, ascorbate reduction and complexation to the oxidase overlap. The increased reducibility for bound cytochrome £ by reductants DAD and TMPD supports a suggested conformational change of electrostatically bound c compare.d to free .£. In addition, analysis of electron distribution between cytochromes £ and a in the complex suggest that the midpotential of cytochrome ~ changes with the redox state of the oxidase. Such evidence supports models of the oxidase which suggest interactions within the enzyme (or c - enzyme complex) result in altered midpoint potentials of the redox centers.

Significance of DNA base excision repair in the maintenance of mitochondrial function in Saccharomyces cerevisiae /

Mitochondria have an important role in cell metabolism, being the major site of ATP production via oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS). Accumulation of mtDNA mutations have been linked to the development of respiratory dysfunction, apoptosis, and aging. Base excision repair (BER) is the major and the only certain repair pathway existing in mitochondria that is in responsible for removing and repairing various base modifications as well as abasic sites (AP sites). In this research, Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) BER gene knockout strains, including 3 single DNA glycosylase gene knockout strains and Ap endonuclease (Apn 1 p) knockout strain were used to examine the importance of this DNA repair pathway to the maintenance of respiratory function. Here, I show that individual DNA glycosylases are nonessential in maintenance of normal function in yeast mitochondria, corroborating with previous research in mammalian experimental models. The yeast strain lacking Apn 1 p activity exhibits respiratory deficits, including inefficient and significantly low intracellular ATP level, which maybe due to partial uncoupling of OXPHOS. Growth of this yeast strain on respiratory medium is inhibited, but no evidence was found for increased ROS level in Apn 1 p mitochondria. This strain also shows an increased cell size, and this observation combined with an uncoupled OXPHOS may indicate a premature aging in the Apnlp knockout strain, but more evidence is needed to support this hypothesis. However, the BER is necessary for maintenance of mitochondrial function in respiring S.cerevisiae.

Evolutionary synthesis of stochastic gene network models using feature-based search spaces

A feature-based fitness function is applied in a genetic programming system to synthesize stochastic gene regulatory network models whose behaviour is defined by a time course of protein expression levels. Typically, when targeting time series data, the fitness function is based on a sum-of-errors involving the values of the fluctuating signal. While this approach is successful in many instances, its performance can deteriorate in the presence of noise. This thesis explores a fitness measure determined from a set of statistical features characterizing the time series' sequence of values, rather than the actual values themselves. Through a series of experiments involving symbolic regression with added noise and gene regulatory network models based on the stochastic 'if-calculus, it is shown to successfully target oscillating and non-oscillating signals. This practical and versatile fitness function offers an alternate approach, worthy of consideration for use in algorithms that evaluate noisy or stochastic behaviour.

The acute effects of systemic cytokines on peripheral nerve function in humans

Cytokines have been shown to cause a reduction in nerve conduction when examined using animal models. Such effects, if shown in humans, could result in detrimental effects to physical function during periods heightened systemic cytokine concentrations. The study investigated the acute effects of cytokines on nerve conduction velocity (NCV) and functional measures. Measures were taken under both basal and elevated cytokine concentrations to determine any corresponding changes to NCV. A significant positive correlation was found between the cytokine IL-6 and NCV at 2 hours post-exercise (r=0.606, p=0.048). A significant negative correlation was found between IL-1ra and NCV at 24 hours post-exercise (r=-0.652, p=0.021). A significant positive correlation was also found between IL-1ra and endurance at 1 hour post-exercise (r=0.643, p=0.033). As such, it would seem that IL-6 may potentially act to enhance nerve function while other cytokines such as IL-1ra may have negative effects and reduce NCV.

Phonon spectra and temperature variation of thermodynamic properties of fcc metals via Finnis-Sinclair type many body potentials: Sutton-Chen and improved Sutton-Chen models

Volume(density)-independent pair-potentials cannot describe metallic cohesion adequately as the presence of the free electron gas renders the total energy strongly dependent on the electron density. The embedded atom method (EAM) addresses this issue by replacing part of the total energy with an explicitly density-dependent term called the embedding function. Finnis and Sinclair proposed a model where the embedding function is taken to be proportional to the square root of the electron density. Models of this type are known as Finnis-Sinclair many body potentials. In this work we study a particular parametrization of the Finnis-Sinclair type potential, called the "Sutton-Chen" model, and a later version, called the "Quantum Sutton-Chen" model, to study the phonon spectra and the temperature variation thermodynamic properties of fcc metals. Both models give poor results for thermal expansion, which can be traced to rapid softening of transverse phonon frequencies with increasing lattice parameter. We identify the power law decay of the electron density with distance assumed by the model as the main cause of this behaviour and show that an exponentially decaying form of charge density improves the results significantly. Results for Sutton-Chen and our improved version of Sutton-Chen models are compared for four fcc metals: Cu, Ag, Au and Pt. The calculated properties are the phonon spectra, thermal expansion coefficient, isobaric heat capacity, adiabatic and isothermal bulk moduli, atomic root-mean-square displacement and Gr\"{u}neisen parameter. For the sake of comparison we have also considered two other models where the distance-dependence of the charge density is an exponential multiplied by polynomials. None of these models exhibits the instability against thermal expansion (premature melting) as shown by the Sutton-Chen model. We also present results obtained via pure pair potential models, in order to identify advantages and disadvantages of methods used to obtain the parameters of these potentials.

Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.

Socio-demographic factors, smoking, symptoms, morbidities and pulmonary function and quality of life in individuals with a heavy smoking history

Objective: To determine which socio-demographic, exposure, morbidity and symptom variables are associated with health-related quality of life among former and current heavy smokers. Methods: Cross sectional data from 2537 participants were studied. All participants were at ≥2% risk of developing lung cancer within 6 years. Linear and logistic regression models utilizing a multivariable fractional polynomial selection process identified variables associated with health-related quality of life, measured by the EQ-5D. Results: Upstream and downstream associations between smoking cessation and higher health-related quality of life were evident. Significant upstream associations, such as education level and current working status and were explained by the addition of morbidities and symptoms to regression models. Having arthritis, decreased forced expiratory volume in one second, fatigue, poor appetite or dyspnea were most highly and commonly associated with decreased HRQoL. Discussion: Upstream factors such as educational attainment, employment status and smoking cessation should be targeted to prevent decreased health-related quality of life. Practitioners should focus treatment on downstream factors, especially symptoms, to improve health-related quality of life.