The role of molecular, clinical and socioeconomic factors in the long-term survival of axillary node negative breast cancer patients

The overall objective of this study was to investigate factors associated with long-term survival in axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients. Clinical and biological factors included stage, histopathologic grade, p53 mutation, Her-2/neu amplification, estrogen receptor status (ER), progesterone receptor status (PR) and vascular invasion. Census derived socioeconomic (SES) indicators included median individual and household income, proportions of university educated individuals, housing type, "incidence" of low income and an indicator of living in an affluent neighbourhood. The effects of these measures on breast cancer-specific survival and competing cause survival were investigated. A cohort study examining survival among axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients in the greater Toronto area commenced in 1 989. Patients were followed up until death, lost-to-follow up or study termination in 2004. Data were collected from several sources measuring patient demographics, clinical factors, treatment, recurrence of disease and survival. Census level SES data were collected using census geo-coding of patient addresses' at the time of diagnosis. Additional survival data were acquired from the Ontario Cancer Registry to enhance and extend the observation period of the study. Survival patterns were examined using KaplanMeier and life table procedures. Associations were examined using log-rank and Wilcoxon tests of univariate significance. Multivariate survival analyses were perfonned using Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were stratified into less than and greater than 5 year survival periods to observe whether known markers of short-tenn survival were also associated with reductions in long-tenn survival among breast cancer patients. The 15 year survival probabilities in this cohort were: for breast cancerspecific survival 0.88, competing causes survival 0.89 and for overall survival 0.78. Estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status (Hazard Ratio (HR) ERIPR- versus ER+/PR+, 8.15,95% CI, 4.74, 14.00), p53 mutation (HR, 3.88, 95% CI, 2.00, 7.53) and Her-2 amplification (HR, 2.66, 95% CI, 1.36, 5.19) were associated with significant reductions in short-tenn breast cancer-specific survival «5 years following diagnosis), however, not with long-term survival in univariate analyses. Stage, histopathologic grade and ERiPR status were the clinicallbiologieal factors that were associated with short-term breast cancer specific survival in multivariate results. Living in an affluent neighbourhood (top quintile of median household income compared to the rest of the population) was associated with the largest significant increase in long-tenn breast cancer-specific survival after adjustment for stage, histopathologic grade and treatment (HR, 0.36, 95% CI, 0.12, 0.89).

Determinants of bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms

The present thesis examines the determinants of the bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms. Using a sample of Canadian firms that filed for bankruptcy protection between the calendar years 1992 and 2009, we fmd that the firm age, the industry adjusted operating margin, the default spread, the industrial production growth rate or the interest rate are influential factors on determining the length of the protection period. Older firms tend to stay longer under protection from creditors. As older firms have more complicated structures and issues to settle, the risk of exiting soon the protection (the hazard rate) is small. We also find that firms that perform better than their benchmark as measured by the industry they belong to, tend to leave quickly the bankruptcy protection state. We conclude that the fate of relatively successful companies is determined faster. Moreover, we report that it takes less time to achieve a final solution to firms under bankrupt~y when the default spread is low or when the appetite for risk is high. Conversely, during periods of high default spreads and flight for quality, it takes longer time to resolve the bankruptcy issue. This last finding may suggest that troubled firms should place themselves under protection when spreads are low. However, this ignores the endogeneity issue: high default spread may cause and incidentally reflect higher bankruptcy rates in the economy. Indeed, we find that bankruptcy protection is longer during economic downturns. We explain this relation by the natural increase in default rate among firms (and individuals) during economically troubled times. Default spreads are usually larger during these harsh periods as investors become more risk averse since their wealth shrinks. Using a Log-logistic hazard model, we also fmd that firms that file under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection spend longer time restructuring than firms that filed under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). As BIA is more statutory and less flexible, solutions can be reached faster by court orders.

Letter From Sir Isaac Brock to James FitzGibbon - July 29, 1812

A two page letter written by Sir Isaac Brock in York, Upper Canada to James FitzGibbon on July 29, 1812. The name of the recipient is not included but according to Mary Agnes FitzGibbon, one can find a transcript of the letter in her "A Veteran of 1812", page 60.[1812], 29 July: Major-General Isaac Brock, York, to James FitzGibbon. I lament that you should have been so long impressed with the idea that I possessed the means of being serviceable to you. I had scarcely heard of Mr. Johnson having declined a Company in the Glengarry (which would have given me the nomination) but I received account of his being reinstated. I consequently thought no more of the business thinking that officer was enjoying the fruits of his good fortune. I know not positively whether Mr. Johnson is reinstated, but being under obligations to promote his views, I cannot possibly interfere to his prejudice. I rather wonder you did not hear that Lieut Lamont had long ago my promise of nominating him to the Company provided it became vacant, which of course would have precluded my application in your behalf. Altho you must be sensible of the impossibility of my taking any step to forward your views in the present case, yet be assured I shall always feel happy in any opportunity that may offer to do your service. To a person unaccustomed to my writing I scarcely would hazard sending this scrawl. I am, Dear Sir, Yours faithfully, Isaac Brock I should like to be among the 49th at this moment. I am satisfied they will support and even add to their former fame. They have my very best wishes. The 41st are behaving nobly at Amherstburg.

The New York Weekly Museum Newspaper, Vol. II, No.25- October 23, 1813

A weekly paper that was published from 1805 to 1814. War related news includes: Page 99 - Weekly Retrospect: American report on British naval movements near Louisiana; General William Harrison reports on: a victory at Moravian Town (Moraviantown) on October 5; Ottawas, Chippewas, Wyandots Miamies and Delaware First Nations (Indians) leaving the British side; Tecumseh remaining with the British; American army and navy attempt for a reduction of Mackinac and St. Joseph's; Colonel Chapin attacking a British picket guard near Fort George on October 6; Report that the British have abandoned the Fort George area for Kingston and is being pursued by General McClure; Forces in Sackett's Harbour ready for an attach on Canada; General Provost believed to have left Kingston for Montreal with 1000 men; Report from Burlington (Lake Champlain) of an attack on St. Armands against Colonel Clark on October 15; Report of the American's taking of the Packet Morgiana by the Schooner Saratoga under Captain Adderton by Newport; Announcement by the New York City Common Council for a celebration of Perry and Harrison's victories on the evening of October 23. The rest of the newspaper contains literary works (poems and translations), marriages, deaths and other anecdotes. The motto on the front page states: "Visiting Every Flower with Labour Meet, and Gathering all its Treasures, Sweet by Sweet."

The New York Weekly Museum Newspaper, Vol. II, No.26- October 30, 1813

A weekly paper that was published from 1805 to 1814. War related news includes: Page 103 - Weekly Retrospect: Reports on the Napoleanic Wars in Europe; Possible French and English troop movements from Europe to America and Canada; Mention of British vessels captured by American privateers Scourge, Rattlesnake and Lion; Report on New York celebration of Commodore Perry and General Harrison's victories on Lake Erie and in Canada respectively; Creek Indians attack on a supply convoy near Savannah, the provisions were recovered by General Floyd; General Harrison's account on Moravian Town (Moraviantown) and Munsey; Movements of General Wilkinson's army. Page 104 - an editorial about the madness of the times and its reflection on humanity. The rest of the newspaper contains literary works (poems and translations), marriages, deaths and other anecdotes. The motto on the front page states: "Visiting Every Flower with Labour Meet, and Gathering all its Treasures, Sweet by Sweet."

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

The American Mercury, 5 October 1813 (vol. 30, no. 1527) - Newspaper

Volumes of interest were published between 1812 and 1815 with articles about the War of 1812. Issue for Oct. 5, 1813 includes: A report announces the arrival of Commodore Rodgers in the U.S. frigate President, in the harbor from his "brilliant cruise" of five months. There is also a list of the captures Rodgers made during his cruise. The feature item in this issue, however, is the famous dispatch sent by Oliver Hazard Perry at the Battle of Lake Erie to General William Henry Harrison. The dispatch, taken from the Chillicothe Supporter, of Sept. 15, is datelined "U.S. Brig Niagara, off the Western Sister, head of Lake Erie, September 10th, 1813, 4 P.M.", and reads: "Dear General, we have met the enemy; and they are ours! Two ships, two brigs, one schooner and one sloop. Yours with great respect and esteem." The dispatch is signed in type: O. H. Perry.