Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Tourism and the precautionary principle : a survey of academic and government stakeholders

The purpose of this exploratory investigation was to provide a more precise understanding and basis from which to assess the potential role of the precautionary principle in tourism. The precautionary principle, analogous to the ideal of sustainable development, is a future-focused planning and regulatory mechanism that emphasizes pro-action and recognizes the limitations of contemporary scientific methods. A total of 100 respondents (80 tourism academics, 20 regional government tourism officials) from Canada, United States, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand completed the webbased survey between May and June 2003. Respondents reported their understanding of the precautionary principle, rated stakeholder involvement and education strategies, assessed potential barriers in implementation, and appraised steps of a proposed fi-amework for implementation. Due to low sub sample numbers, measures of central tendency were primarily used to compare groups, while inferential statistics were applied when warranted. Results indicated that most respondents (79%) felt the principle could be a guiding principle for tourism, while local and regional government entities were reported to have the most power in the implementation process. Findings suggested close links between the precautionary principle and sustainability, as concern for future generations was the most critical element of the principle for tourism. Overall, tourism academics were more supportive of the precautionary principle in tourism than were regional government tourism officials. Only minor variation was found in responses among regional groups across all variables. This study established basic ground for understanding the precautionary principle in tourism and has been effective in formulating more precise questions for future research.

Ethics in government and business

Canadians appear to hold the activities of those in government and in big business in low esteem. Media reports of several high-profile political and corporate instances of unethical conduct have reinforced the public's concern for the status of ethical conduct and honesty in government and in big business. The response by public and private sector managers to unethical conduct by employees is largely in the form of 'ethical rules' which both sectors agree provide a measure of certainty as to the ethical conduct expected from employees. Since research on ethics in the public and private sectors is limited and since ethics is a topic of increasing concern to both sectors, this thesis provides data that could assist managers in dealing with the issue of ethical conduct within their respective organizations. The purpose of this thesis is to compare the state of ethical conduct within public and private sector organizations in Canada. This is accomplished through a description and analysis of the approaches taken by the public and private sectors as well as the four professions of law, engineering, accountancy and medicine. Ethical conduct within the public sector focuses on the ethical behaviour of public servants rather than elected officials. The underlying intent of this thesis is to discover if contemporary ethical problems are similar in the public and iv private sectors with respect to the four ethical areas of conflict of interest, political activity, problem public comment and confidentiality. The comparative data on both public and private sector ethics are assessed and similarities and differences are identified. One major finding emerges from this study. Codes of ethics in both the public and private sectors are perceived by management to play an important role in the prevention of unethical conduct. A procedure for developing a code of ethics is presented along with recommendations as to the administration of a code of ethics. Finally, recommendations are made as to the role of education in ethics.

Strategies for economic development in the Commonwealth Caribbean: a comparative study of the foreign economic policy strategies adopted by the Manley government in Jamaica and the Williams government in Trinidad and Tobago

This thesis compares the foreign economic poUcy dimension of the development strategies adopted by the governments of two Commonwealth caribbean countries: The Hardey government In Jamaica, and the· Williams government in Trlnidad and T ooago, The foreign economic policIes adopted by these governments appeared, on the surface~ to be markedly dissimilar. The Jamakan strategv on the one hand, emphasised self-reliance and national autonomy; and featured the espousal of radical oonaHgnment together with attempts to re-deftne the terms of the Islands externaa economIc relaUoos. The Trinidadian strategy 00 the other hand, featured Uberal externaUy-oriented growth poUctes, and close relatjoos with Western governments and financial institutions. Th1s study attempts to identify the explanatory factors that account for the apparent dlssimUarUy 1n the foreign economic policies of these two govemnents. The study is based on a comparison of how the structural bases of an underdeveloped ecooomYg and the foreign penetration and vulnerabUUy to external pressures asSOCiated wUh dependence, shape and influence foreign economic poUcy strategy. The framework views fore1gn ecooom1c strategy as an adaptive response on the part of the decision makers of a state to the coostralnts and opportunities provided by a particular situation. The · situat i 00' in this case being the events, conditions, structures and processes, associated wUh dependente and underdevelopment. The results indicate that the similarities and dissimHarities in the foreign economic policies of the governments of Jamaica and Trinidad were a reflecUon of the simHarities and dissimilarities in their respective situations. The conclusion derived suggests that If the foreign pol1cy field as an arena of choice, Is indeed one of opportunities and constraints for each and every state, then poHcy makers of smaU, weak, hlghW penetrated and vulnerable states enter thlS arena with constraints outweighing opportunities. This places effective limits 00 their decisional latitude and the range of policy options avaUable. Policy makers thus have to decide critical issues with few estabUshed precedents, in the face of domestic social and political cleavages, as wen as serious foreign pressures. This is a reflection not only of the trappings of dependence, but also of the Umned capabilities arising from the sman size of the state, and the Impact of the resource-gap In an underdeveloped economy. The Trinidadian strategy 1s UlustraUve of a development strategy made viable through a combination of a fortuitous circumstance, a confluence of the interests of influential groups» and accurate perception on the part of poUcy makers. These factors enabled policy makers to minimise some of the constraints of dependence. The faUure of Manlets strategy on the other hand, 15 iHustraUve of the problems involved tn the adoption of poUcles that work against the interest of internal and external political and economic forces. It is also tUustraUve of the consequences of the faUure 00 the part of policy makers to clarify goals, and to reconcile the values of rapid economic growth with increased self-reliance and national autonomy. These values tend to be mutuany Incompatible given the existing patterns of relations in the jnternational economy.

Buddy films and gender identity : representing the bonds of masculinity /

The study examines the buddy film genre and the representation of masculinity in relation to the homosocial and the homoerotic. As a genre, the buddy films focus on male relationships, thematically seeking to mediate the boundaries surrounding the homosocial continuum and the intimacy and eroticism implicit in male bonding. Theories of genre, gender and identity are used to analyze the construction of masculine identity within the films. By providing a qualitative analysis of films from the 1960s to contemporary times, the research establishes a relationship between social changes, attitudes toward men and depictions of men. The buddy films adapt to address changes in the representation of masculinity, embodied in the difference between the male couple in the films. The early films of the 1960s served as templates that deconstructed traditional representations of male identity through articulating the tension within homosocial relationships. However, in the later films this tension became a refle~ive convention, acting to undermine the eroticism onto a displaced Other. The buddy film genre highlights the tension inherent to the male masquerade. This tension is situated in the need to represent the protagonist's homosocial relationship, while disavowing the eroticism that surrounds homosocial bonding. The structure of the buddy film genre, which focuses on the exploration of masculinity and representing the bonds of homosocial intimacy, makes these films a significant site for investigating the cultural construction of masculine identities.

The claim of Amasa Stetson, of Massachusetts, on the United States, for money advanced, in fulfilling the orders of the Government while discharging the duties of Commissary General of Purchases, in time of the late war with Great Britain ; and for services rendered. --

Claim relating to the War of 1812.

Letter from the Secretary of State to Mr. Monroe, on the subject of the attack on the Chesapeake : the correspondence of Mr. Monroe with the British Government ; and also Mr. Madison's correspondence with Mr. Rose on the same subject. --

March 23, 1808. Printed by order of the House of Representatives.

Message from the President of the United States, transmitting communications from the plenipotentiaries of the United States charged with negotiating peace with Great Britain : showing the conditions on which alone that government is willing to put an end to the war. --

13th Congress, 3d session. House. Doc. 6.

Everything that rises must converge: a neo-Marxist analysis of Canadian business-government relations

The following thesis presents an analysis of business-government relations within a neo-Marxist framework. Specifically, the discussion encompasses how the business interest group. the Business Council on National Issues, maintains consensus and unity amongst its monopoly capital members. Furthermore. the study elaborates on the process through which the group's interests are acknowledged and legitimized by the state under the "public interest" f8fue. Most of the literature pertaining to business-government relations within the context of interactions between business interest groups and the state, and such specific branches of the state as the government and/or the civil service. emphasize a liberal-pluralist perspective. Essentially, these writings serve to reflect and legitimate the current slatus quo. Marxist discourses on the subject, while attempting to transcend the liberal-pluralist framework. nevertheless suffer from either economic determinism .. ie., stressing the state's accumulation function but not its legitimation function or historical specificity. A cogent and comprehensive neo-Marxist analysis of business-government relations must discuss both the accumulation and legitimation functions of the state. The process by which the concerns of a particular business interest group become part of the state's policy agenda and subsequently are formulated and implemented into policies which legitimate its dominance is also studied. This inquiry is significant given the liberal-pluralist assumptions of a neutral state and that all interest groups compete "on a level playing field". The author's neo-Marxist paradigm rejects both of these assumptions. Building on concepts from nea-Marxist instrumentalism. structuralism. state monopoly capitalism, and forms and functions of the state perspectives. the author proposes that policies which legitimize the interests of the monopoly capital fraction cannot. be discerned only from the state's activities. per StJ. Clearly, if the liberal-pluralist 3 contention of multiple and conflicting interest groups, including those within the capitalist class, is taken at face value, M interest group such as the Business Council on National Issues (BCND, must somehow maintain. internal consensus Md unity amongst its members. Internal consensus amongst its members ensures that the state can better acknowledge and articulate its concerns into policies that maintain hegemonic dominance of the monopoly capital fraction under the "public interest" fllf.JJdq. The author contends that the BCNI focuses most of its interactions on the upper echelons of the civil service since it is this branch of the state which is most responsible for policy formulation and implementation. The author's paradigm is applied within the context of extensively analyzing newspaper coverage. BCN! publications, and other published sources, as well as a personal interview with an executive administrative member of the BeNI. The discussion focuses on how agreement and unity amongst the various interests of the monopoly capital fraction are maintained through the business organization, its policy scope, and finally its interactions with the state. The analysis suggests that while the civil service is an important player in expressing the interests of the BCNI's membership through policies which ostensibly also reflect the "public interest", it is not the only strategic target for the BCNI's interactions with the state. The author's research also highlights the importance of government officials at the Cabinet level and Cabinet Committees. Senior elected officials from the Federal government are also significant in avoiding intergovernmental or interprovincial conflict in implementing policies that legitimize hegemonic dominance of the monopoly capital fraction over other fractions and classes.

Bonds away : baseball mythology and the 2007 home run chase

In 2007, Barry Bonds hit his 75 6th home run, breaking Hank Aaron's all-time record for most home runs in a Major League career. While it would be expected that such an accomplishment would induce unending praise and adulationfor the new record-holder, Bonds did not receive the treatment typically reserved for a beloved baseball hero. The purpose of this thesis is to assess media representations of the 2007 home run chase in order to shed light upon the factors which led to the mixed representations which accompanied BOlTds ' assault on Aaron's record. Drawingfrom Roland Barthes ' concept of myth, this thesis proposes that Bonds was portrayed in predominantly negative ways because he was seen as failing to embody the values of baseball's mythology. Using a qualitative content analysis of three major American newspapers, this thesis examines portrayals of Bonds and how he was shown both to represent and oppose elements from baseball's mythology, such as youth, and a distant, agrarian past. Recognizing the ways in which baseball is associated with American life, the media representations of Bonds are also evaluated to discern whether he was portrayed as personifYing a distinctly American set of values. The results indicate that, in media coverage of the 2007 home run chase, Bonds was depicted as a player of many contradictions. Most commonly, Bonds' athletic ability and career achievements were contrasted with unflattering descriptions of his character, including discussions of his alleged use of performance-enhancing substances. However, some coverage portrayed Bonds as embodying baseball myth. The findings contribute to an appreciation of the importance of historical context in examining media representations. This understanding is enhanced by an analysis of a selection of articles on Mark McGwire 's record-breaking season in 1998, and careful consideration of, and comparison to, the context under which Bonds performed in 2007. Findings are also shown to support the contemporary existence of a strong American baseball mythology. That Bonds is both condemned for failing to uphold the mythology and praised for personifYing it suggests that the values seen as inherent to baseball continue to act as an American cultural benchmark.

Office of the City Clerk, St. Catharines Records, 1928-1974, n.d.

The site of present-day St. Catharines was settled by 3000 United Empire Loyalists at the end of the 18th century. From 1790, the settlement (then known as "The Twelve") grew as an agricultural community. St. Catharines was once referred to Shipman's Corners after Paul Shipman, owner of a tavern that was an important stagecoach transfer point. In 1815, leading businessman William Hamilton Merritt abandoned his wharf at Queenston and set up another at Shipman's Corners. He became involved in the construction and operation of several lumber and gristmills along Twelve Mile Creek. Shipman's Corners soon became the principal milling site of the eastern Niagara Peninsula. At about the same time, Merritt began to develop the salt springs that were discovered along the river which subsequently gave the village a reputation as a health resort. By this time St. Catharines was the official name of the village; the origin of the name remains obscure, but is thought to be named after Catharine Askin Robertson Hamilton, wife of the Hon. Robert Hamilton, a prominent businessman. Merritt devised a canal scheme from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario that would provide a more reliable water supply for the mills while at the same time function as a canal. He formed the Welland Canal Company, and construction took place from 1824 to 1829. The canal and the mills made St. Catharines the most important industrial centre in Niagara. By 1845, St. Catharines was incorporated as a town, with the town limits extending in 1854. Administrative and political functions were added to St. Catharines in 1862 when it became the county seat of Lincoln. In 1871, construction began on the third Welland Canal, which attracted additional population to the town. As a consequence of continual growth, the town limits were again extended. St. Catharines attained city status in 1876 with its larger population and area. Manufacturing became increasingly important in St. Catharines in the early 1900s with the abundance of hydro-electric power, and its location on important land and water routes. The large increase in population after the 1900s was mainly due to the continued industrialization and urbanization of the northern part of the city and the related expansion of business activity. The fourth Welland Canal was opened in 1932 as the third canal could no longer accommodate the larger ships. The post war years and the automobile brought great change to the urban form of St. Catharines. St. Catharines began to spread its boundaries in all directions with land being added five times during the 1950s. The Town of Merritton, Village of Port Dalhousie and Grantham Township were all incorporated as part of St. Catharines in 1961. In 1970 the Province of Ontario implemented a regional approach to deal with such issues as planning, pollution, transportation and services. As a result, Louth Township on the west side of the city was amalgamated, extending the city's boundary to Fifteen Mile Creek. With its current population of 131,989, St. Catharines has become the dominant centre of the Niagara region. Source: City of St. Catharines website http://www.stcatharines.ca/en/governin/HistoryOfTheCity.asp (January 27, 2011)

Letter from the Secretary of State to Mr. Monroe, on the subject of the attack on the Chesapeake : the correspondence of Mr. Monroe with the British Government; and also Mr. Madison's correspondence with Mr. Rose on the same subject

March 23, 1808. Printed by order of the House of Representatives.