A stochastic dynamic programming approach for pricing options on stock-index futures

The aim of this thesis is to price options on equity index futures with an application to standard options on S&P 500 futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Our methodology is based on stochastic dynamic programming, which can accommodate European as well as American options. The model accommodates dividends from the underlying asset. It also captures the optimal exercise strategy and the fair value of the option. This approach is an alternative to available numerical pricing methods such as binomial trees, finite differences, and ad-hoc numerical approximation techniques. Our numerical and empirical investigations demonstrate convergence, robustness, and efficiency. We use this methodology to value exchange-listed options. The European option premiums thus obtained are compared to Black's closed-form formula. They are accurate to four digits. The American option premiums also have a similar level of accuracy compared to premiums obtained using finite differences and binomial trees with a large number of time steps. The proposed model accounts for deterministic, seasonally varying dividend yield. In pricing futures options, we discover that what matters is the sum of the dividend yields over the life of the futures contract and not their distribution.

Stolen past: Shattered futures, aboriginal justice in Canada

It is acknowledged that Canada's criminal justice system has some major flaws, particularly with respect to its application to various ethnic subgroups. Aboriginal Canadians are one subgroup particularly sensitive to the problems in the system as is reflected by their disproportionately high rates of criminality and incarceration. Over the past 50 years many programs have been developed and recommendations have been made to alleviate the tensions Aboriginals find within the system. However, the situation today is essentially the same. Aboriginals are still overrepresented within the system and solutions that have been brought forward have had little success in stemming their flow into the system. Blame for Aboriginal mistreatment in the system has been placed at all levels from line police officers to high-level officials and politicians and attempts to resolve problems continue as an on going process. However, many of the recommendations and reforms have revolved around culture conflict. Although this thesis recognizes the importance of culture conflict in the overrepresentation of Aboriginals within the Canadian criminal justice system, it has also recognized that culture conflict alone is not responsible for all the flaws within the system as it pertains to Aboriginals. This thesis is of the opinion that in order for reforms to the criminal justice system to be successful, the context in which the system is operating must also be considered. Variables such as geographic isolation, economic disparity and social/political stability are viewed as operating in conjunction with culture, ultimately influencing Aboriginal treatment within the system. The conclusions drawn from this study confirm that when these factors operate together, the overrepresentation of Aboriginals within the Canadian criminal justice system is inevitable. Thus all three variables, culture conflict (social/political stability being part), geographic isolation and economic disparity must be address within the system if any significant changes in the crime rates or incarceration rates of Aboriginals is to be expected. In addition, primary research indicated the influence of cooperation as a factor in moderating the effects of criminality; not just cooperation among Aboriginals and non-Aboriginals, but also cooperation among differing Aboriginal communities. It was argued that when all these issues are addressed, Aboriginal peoples in Canada will have the strength to repair their shattered futures.

Margin requirements and volatility : evidence from Canadian stocks

Margin policy is used by regulators for the purpose of inhibiting exceSSIve volatility and stabilizing the stock market in the long run. The effect of this policy on the stock market is widely tested empirically. However, most prior studies are limited in the sense that they investigate the margin requirement for the overall stock market rather than for individual stocks, and the time periods examined are confined to the pre-1974 period as no change in the margin requirement occurred post-1974 in the U.S. This thesis intends to address the above limitations by providing a direct examination of the effect of margin requirement on return, volume, and volatility of individual companies and by using more recent data in the Canadian stock market. Using the methodologies of variance ratio test and event study with conditional volatility (EGARCH) model, we find no convincing evidence that change in margin requirement affects subsequent stock return volatility. We also find similar results for returns and trading volume. These empirical findings lead us to conclude that the use of margin policy by regulators fails to achieve the goal of inhibiting speculating activities and stabilizing volatility.

Benjamin Woodruff Price Papers, 1851, 1853-1860, 1862-1863, 1874, n.d.

The fonds includes sixty two items of correspondence between Benjamin Woodruff Price, aka Woodruff, Ben or Uncle, and various family members, both immediate and distant cousins. Also included is business correspondence related to Price’s activities as a watchmaker and/or jeweler. Benjamin Woodruff Price was born in Thorold Township ca. 1831, the son of Joseph Price and Mary Smith. B.W. Price married Ella or Ellen McGlashan (1851-1906) ca. 1868. Price died between 1891 and 1901, his burial location is unknown at present. A watchmaker and jeweler, Price lived most of his life in Fonthill, Ont. He also included auctioneer, undertaker and photographer as some of his other professional activities. His siblings included David Smith Price (wife Isabella Ann), John Smith Price (wife Elizabeth Jane), and sisters Susan Page (husband Edward Rice Page), Jerusha Price, Mary Price and Martha W. Stone (husband Dudley Ward Stone). John Smith Price died 18 April 1860, leaving no descendents. It is likely that G.W. Stone was a nephew to B.W. Price, the son of his sister Martha W. Stone and her husband Dudley Ward Stone. Susan Page was a sister of Benjamin Woodruff Price. She was married to Edward Rice Page and they had at least two children, Joseph and Clayton. At the time of this correspondence they lived in Suspension Bridge, NY, now part of Niagara Falls, New York. Edward Rice Page’s occupation was listed as saloon keeper. The Price family appears to have had a very large extended family. This information was gleaned from the contents of letters of Maggie Tisdale, daughter of Ephraim and Hannah (Price) Tisdale, P.A. or Ann Morgan, [may also be Phebe Ann] of Newark, NY? and Marietta House of Bayham Township. DeWitt Higgins of Suspension Bridge, NY aka Niagara Falls, NY was an auctioneer, specialized in buying jewellery, watches, clocks, from individuals and reselling his product to others like B.W. Price.

Welland Canal Survey of Lands David Price, 1834

Survey map and description of David Price's land created by The Welland Canal Company. Included is a written description of the land along with a drawing of the land. Noteable features include; Hellem's Creek, road, bridge, Chippewa, Griffith's land, canal. The deed for the land is dated October 14, 1834. The land totals 5 acres, 3 roads and 7 perches. Surveyor notes are seen in pencil and red pen on the map.

The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

The Impact of a Corporate Name Change on Stock Price and Trading Volume of Canadian Companies

This thesis examines the impact of a corporate name change on stock price and trading volume of Canadian companies around the announcement date, the approval date, and the adoption date over the time period from 1997 to 2011. Name changes are classified into six categories: major and minor, structural and pure, diversified and focused, accompanied with a change in ticker symbol and without a change in ticker symbol, “Gold” name addition and deletion, and different reasons for name changes (e.g., merger and acquisition, change of structure, change of strategy, and better image). The thesis uses the standard event study methodology to perform abnormal return and trading volume analyses. In addition, regression analysis is employed to examine which type of a name change has the largest impact on cumulative abnormal returns. Sample stocks exhibit a significant positive abnormal return one-day prior to the approval day and one day after the adoption date. Around the approval date we observe significant abnormal returns for stocks with a structural name change. On the day after the adoption date we document abnormal returns for stocks with major, minor, structural, pure, focused, and ticker symbol name changes. If a merger or acquisition is the reason for a name change, companies tend to experience a significant positive abnormal return one-day before the approval date and on the adoption date. If a change of structure is the reason for a name change, companies exhibit a significant positive abnormal return on the approval date and a significant negative abnormal return on the adoption date. In case of a change of strategy as the reason for a name change, companies show a significant negative abnormal return around the approval date and a significant positive abnormal return around the adoption date.

Alberta Price List No. 3., January 1st, 1925

A price list form for the Alberta Liquor Control Board from 1 January 1925. The price list includes "General Information" in regards to permits for individuals and special permits. The alcohol is then listed by category for pricing: Scotch Whisky, Irish Whisky, Rye Whisky, Bourbon Whisky, Rum, Gin, Brandy, Port, Native Wine, Italian (Type) Wines, Sherry, Claret, Burgundy, White Wine, Sparkling Wine, Vermouth, Cocktails, Liqueurs, Champagne, Bitters, Ale and Stout, Chinese Liquors.

General Price List, Ontario, 1 January 1924

A general price list from the year 1924 for the province of Ontario. The cover of the list reads: "Ontario Government Dispensaries Conducted Under Direction of Board of License Commissioners for Ontario By Authority of The Ontario Temperance Act. General Price List, Dispensaries sell liquor for medicinal, sacramental, scientific and manufacturing purposes only. The sale of liquor for beverage purposes in the Province of Ontario is prohibited by The Ontario Temperance Act. Dispensaries: No.1-154 Wellington Street West, Toronto; No.2-1271 Dundas Street West, Toronto; No.3-29 Charles Street, Hamilton; No.4-425 Talbot Street, London; No.5-30 Sandwich Street West, Windsor; No.6-Golden Lion Block, Kingston; No.7-92 Kent Street, Ottawa; No.8-109 Simpson Street, Fort William."

Newfoundland Price List, 1 June 1928

A price list for Newfoundland by the Board of Liquor Control, St. John's. The list is one page in length and has a few handwritten changes to prices.

Price List - Lawrence A. Wilson Co. Limited, 1916

A price list for Lawrence A. Wilson Co. Limited, 87 James St., Montreal Quebec. It is addressed to The Toronto Hunt, 52 Bay Street, Toronto. There are additional handwritten notes. One of the handwritten notes reads "ck to W. Stephen Haas"

Wiehl & Widmann Price List, August 1903

A price list for Wiehl & Widmann (Wholesale Importers of and Dealers in Wines, Liquors and Mineral Waters). The price list is dated August 1903 and the location of the dealer is New York.

The "Bodega" Company Price List

A price list for The "Bodega" Company Limited. The company has branches throughout the United Kingdom, including: London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee, Brighton, and Ryde. The final pages of the price list also include a reprinted article from "The Irish Times" concerning a case against the use of the Bodega Company name.

Effect of executive compensation on firm performance

The paper finds evidence that the equity-based CEO pay is positively related to firm performance and risk-taking. Both stock price and operating performance as well as firm's riskiness increase in the pay-performance sensitivities (PPS) provided by CEO stock options and stock holdings. PPS can explain stock returns better as an additional factor to the Fama-French 3-factor model. When CEOs are compensated with higher PPS, firms experience higher return on asset (ROA). The higher PPS also leads to the higher risk-taking. While CEO incentive compensation has been perceived mixed on its effectiveness, this study provides support to the equity-based CEO compensation in reducing agency conflicts between CEOs and shareholders.

Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.