Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Factors affecting a woman's decision to leave an abusive relationship : the theory of planned behaviour /

The present study tested the appHcabiUty of Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behaviour (TPB), an extension of Fishbein and Ajzen's (1975) theory of reasoned action (TRA), for the first time, in the context of abused women's decision to leave their abusive relationships. The TPB, as a means of predicting women's decision to leave their abusive partners' was drawn from Strube's (1988, 1991) proposed decision-making model based on the principle that the decision-making process is a rational, deliberative process, and regardless of outcome, was a result of a logical assessment of the available data. As a means of predicting those behaviours not under volitional control, Ajzen's (1985) TPB incorporated a measure of perceived behavioural control. Data were collected in two phases, ranging from 6 months to 1 year apart. It was hypothesized that, to the extent that an abused woman held positive attitudes, subjective norms conducive to leaving, and perceived control over leaving, she would form an intention to leave and thus, increase the likelihood of actually leaving her partner. Furthermore, it was expected that perceptions of control would predict leaving behaviour over and above attitude and subjective norm. In addition, severity and frequency of abuse were assessed, as were demographic variables. The TPB failed to account significantly for variability in either intentions or leaving behaviour. All of the variance was attributed to those variables associated with the theory of reasoned action, with social influence emerging as the strongest predictor of a woman's intentions. The poor performance of this model is attributed to measurement problems with aspects of attitude and perceived control, as well as a lack of power due to the small sample size. The insufficiency of perceived control to predict behaviour also suggests that, on the surface at least, other factors may be at work in this context. Implications of these results, and recommendations such as, the importance of obtaining representative samples, the inclusion of self-esteem and emotions as predictor variables in this model, a reevaluation of the target behaviovu" as nonvolitional, and longitudinal studies spanning a longer time period for future research within the context of decision-making are discussed.

Decision-making theory applied to India's explosion of a nuclear device in May, 1974

This essay reviews the decision-making process that led to India exploding a nuclear device in May, 1974. An examination of the Analytic, Cybernetic and Cognitive Theories of decision, will enable a greater understanding of the events that led up to the 1974 test. While each theory is seen to be only partially useful, it is only by synthesising the three theories that a comprehensive account of the 1974 test can be given. To achieve this analysis, literature on decision-making in national security issues is reviewed, as well as the domestic and international environment in which involved decisionmakers operated. Finally, the rationale for the test in 1974 is examined. The conclusion revealed is that the explosion of a nuclear device by India in 1974 was primarily related to improving Indian international prestige among Third World countries and uniting a rapidly disintegrating Indian societal consensus. In themselves, individual decision-making theories were found to be of little use, but a combination of the various elements allowed a greater comprehension of the events leading up to the test than might otherwise have been the case.

An exploration of women elementary school teachers' perceptions of how their decision to return to teaching part-time from a maternity leave influences their professional and personal lives /

The purpose of this research was to explore women elementary teachers' perceptions of how their decision to return to teaching part-time from a maternity leave influences their professional and personal lives. The investigation focused on the decisions surrounding a mother's choice to reenter the teaching profession parttime in a field where each mother had previously been employed full-time. A collective case study was undertaken based on an in-depth interview with five mothers who had made the choice to return to the classroom part-time. The data collected in this study were analyzed and interpreted using qualitative methods. The following four major themes emerged from the interviews: decisionmaking process, challenges faced by mothers who teach part-time, the importance of support, and the enhancement of instructional practice from parenthood. Using these four themes, an analysis was conducted to examine the similarities and differences among the experiences of the participants. The mothers' reflections, my analysis, and the related literature were used at the conclusion of this report to compile implications for teaching practice, theory, and further research.

A study on the role of the parent in educational decision making from the perspective of parents and teachers

ADeweyan (1916) democratic theoty ofeducation called for the participation ofall citizens in deliberating important educational issues to improve overall student learning. Thus, the move to include parents in educational decision making can be considered to be rooted in democratic principles. To gain greater insight into the issue ofparent involvement in educational decision making, one elementary school was studied and a triangulization method was employed in an attempt to clarify the important issues surrolUlding the move to include parents in the governance ofschools. The three methods to gain information included surveys, interviews, and documentation ofsignificant school events and related work. All ofthe parents and teachers ofthe school were surveyed, 10 parents and 6teachers were interviewed, and related school events were recorded. The survey design was modeled on the Parent Involvement Questionnaire (PIQ) created and reported on by Chavkin and Williams (1987). The results ofthe surveys were used as a guide for the interview questions. An interview outline was developed based on Seidman's (1991) open-ended approach and Patton's (1980) standardized open-ended interview style in which parents and teachers were asked about their experiences and opinions on anmnber ofparent involvement issues. Parents and teachers in this school indicated agreater interest in becoming more aware ofeducational issues such as school budget and school discipline policies. Although the parents indicated agreater interest in school matters and the teachers indicated awillingness to include parents in school matters, both the parents and teachers in this study perceived the role ofthe parent as advisory, not decision making. It was concluded that to ensure ameaningful and functional role for parellts as tlleir p811icipatioll ill educational matters evolves, SCllools must have a clear vision ofthe primary goal ofall schools, namely, to foster and nourish democratic citizens for ademocratic society (Glickman, 1993). Furthennore, intentional practices such as Purkey's (ad) 5-P Relay approach, based on a democratic theory and practice of education, will have to be employed in order to give parents an authentic voice in educational matters and provide an avenue for parents to acquire the necessary skills and lmowledge needed to do so. As schools, school boards, and the Ministry ofEducation implement parent involvement guidelines and policies, developmental needs ofeach school need to be considered to ensure the employment ofdemocratic practices not authoritarian mandates. Parent interest and involvement, at whatever level, should be an important element in the overall move to make schools part ofthe democratic society they were meant to be.

Towards automated derivation in the theory of allegories

We provide an algorithm that automatically derives many provable theorems in the equational theory of allegories. This was accomplished by noticing properties of an existing decision algorithm that could be extended to provide a derivation in addition to a decision certificate. We also suggest improvements and corrections to previous research in order to motivate further work on a complete derivation mechanism. The results presented here are significant for those interested in relational theories, since we essentially have a subtheory where automatic proof-generation is possible. This is also relevant to program verification since relations are well-suited to describe the behaviour of computer programs. It is likely that extensions of the theory of allegories are also decidable and possibly suitable for further expansions of the algorithm presented here.

Youth Involvement in Organizational Decision Making: The Connection to Youth Initiative and Organizational Functioning

Studying positive adolescent development requires an examination of the mutually beneficial associations between youth and their environment. These youthcontext relations include both the contributions that youth make to others and society and the youth-context interactions that might predict positive youth outcomes. Community and youth-serving organizations, where youth may be involved in decision-making roles such as service delivery, advocacy, or on boards of directors, can provide one important context for youth contributions and for positive adolescent development. Research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision-making, however, is limited, and largely consists of exploratory qualitative studies. This dissertation is formatted as an integrated article dissertation. It begins with a review of the literature on contexts of structured youth activities and positive youth development. This review is intended to describe theory on development-context relations, in which development is considered an interactive process that occurs between individuals and their contexts, as it pertains the positive development of youth who are involved in various structured activities (e.g., volunteering). This description follows with a review of current research, and conclusions and rationale for the current studies. Following this theoretical and research background, the dissertation includes reports of two studies that were designed to address gaps in the research on youth involvement in organizational decision-making. The first was a qualitative research synthesis to elucidate and summarize the extant qualitative research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision making on adults and organizations. Results of this study suggested a number of outcomes for service provision, staff, and broader organizational functioning, including both benefits to organizations as well as some costs. The second study was a quantitative analysis of the associations among youth involvement, organizations' learning culture, and youth initiative, and relied on survey data gathered from adults and youth in community-based organizations with youth involvement. As expected, greater youth involvement in organizational decision making was associated with higher learning culture within the organization. Two dimensions of youth involvement, greater program engagement and relationships with adults, were related to greater youth initiative. A third dimension, sense of ownership, was not- .-.- associated with youth's level of initiative. Moreover, the association between relationships with adults and youth initiative was only significant in organizations with relatively low learning culture. Despite some limitations, these studies contribute to the research literature by providing some indication of the potential benefits and costs of youth involvement and by making an important contribution toward the early stages of context-level analyses of youth development. Findings have important implications for practitioners, funders, future research, and lifespan development theory.

GA approach for finding Rough Set decision rules based on bireducts

Feature selection plays an important role in knowledge discovery and data mining nowadays. In traditional rough set theory, feature selection using reduct - the minimal discerning set of attributes - is an important area. Nevertheless, the original definition of a reduct is restrictive, so in one of the previous research it was proposed to take into account not only the horizontal reduction of information by feature selection, but also a vertical reduction considering suitable subsets of the original set of objects. Following the work mentioned above, a new approach to generate bireducts using a multi--objective genetic algorithm was proposed. Although the genetic algorithms were used to calculate reduct in some previous works, we did not find any work where genetic algorithms were adopted to calculate bireducts. Compared to the works done before in this area, the proposed method has less randomness in generating bireducts. The genetic algorithm system estimated a quality of each bireduct by values of two objective functions as evolution progresses, so consequently a set of bireducts with optimized values of these objectives was obtained. Different fitness evaluation methods and genetic operators, such as crossover and mutation, were applied and the prediction accuracies were compared. Five datasets were used to test the proposed method and two datasets were used to perform a comparison study. Statistical analysis using the one-way ANOVA test was performed to determine the significant difference between the results. The experiment showed that the proposed method was able to reduce the number of bireducts necessary in order to receive a good prediction accuracy. Also, the influence of different genetic operators and fitness evaluation strategies on the prediction accuracy was analyzed. It was shown that the prediction accuracies of the proposed method are comparable with the best results in machine learning literature, and some of them outperformed it.