Impact of considering the effects of latent heat on caldera-hosted hydrothermal systems

To investigate the thennal effects of latent heat in hydrothennal settings, an extension was made to the existing finite-element numerical modelling software, Aquarius. The latent heat algorithm was validated using a series of column models, which analysed the effects of penneability (flow rate), thennal gradient, and position along the two-phase curve (pressure). Increasing the flow rate and pressure increases displacement of the liquid-steam boundary from an initial position detennined without accounting for latent heat while increasing the thennal gradient decreases that displacement. Application to a regional scale model of a caldera-hosted hydrothennal system based on a representative suite of calderas (e.g., Yellowstone, Creede, Valles Grande) led to oscillations in the model solution. Oscillations can be reduced or eliminated by mesh refinement, which requires greater computation effort. Results indicate that latent heat should be accounted for to accurately model phase change conditions in hydrothennal settings.

Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields