Profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements in the U.S. Treasury market

This thesis studies the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the U.S. Treasury market and investigates profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements using data from the eSpeed electronic trading platform. We investigate how macroeconomic announcements affect the return predictability of trade imbalance for the 2-year, 5-year, IO-year U.S. Treasury notes and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology to identify informed trades and estimate the trade imbalance based on informed trades. We use the daily order book slope as a proxy for dispersion of beliefs among investors. Regression results in this thesis indicate that, on announcement days with a high dispersion of beliefs, daily trade imbalance estimated by informed trades significantly predicts returns on the following day. In addition, we develop a trade-imbalance based trading strategy conditional on dispersion of beliefs, informed trades, and announcement days. The trading strategy yields significantly positive net returns for the 2-year T-notes.

Cues to action : do they result in belief and behavioural change in women?

With incidence rates of osteoporosis increasing (Osteoporosis Canada, 2007), preventative efforts to minimize costs associated with condition diagnosis are a public health priority. Cues to action are specific internal (e.g., physical symptoms, family member with a condition) or external stimuli (e.g., public service announcements, health education campaigns) that are necessary to trigger appropriate health behaviours and serve to create an awareness of the health threat (Mattson, 1999). To date, limited understanding of the scope of influence cues to action have on health beliefs and behaviour associated with osteoporosis is known. The present investigation was designed to address this gap in the literature. More specifically, the influence of cues to action, a public service announcement (PSA) developed by Osteoporosis Canada and a bone screening by way of Quantitative Ultrasound, on health beliefs and health-enhancing physical activity (HEPA) across a four week period was investigated. Peri-and postmenopausal women (N= 174) were randomly assigned to one of three conditions 1) an osteoporosis public service announcement (PSA) condition; 2) a bone screening condition via quantitative ultrasound techniques, and 3) a PSA attention control condition. Health beliefs associated with osteoporosis were taken at three time points: prior to the cue to action intervention, immediately following the intervention, and four weeks post intervention. Knowledge of osteorporosis risk factors and HEP A were assessed pre and post-intervention only. Results of a regression analysis suggested that baseline health beliefs predicted baseline HEPA (R2 adj = .24; F (9, 161) = 6.49,p = .000; 95% CI = .12 - .35) with exercise barriers (p = -.33) being a negative predictor and health motivation (p = .21) being a positive predictor of HEP A. Baseline health beliefs predicted With incidence rates of osteoporosis increasing (Osteoporosis Canada, 2007), preventative efforts to minimize costs associated with condition diagnosis are a public health priority. Cues to action are specific internal (e.g., physical symptoms, family member with a condition) or external stimuli (e.g., public service announcements, health education campaigns) that are necessary to trigger appropriate health behaviours and serve to create an awareness of the health threat (Mattson, 1999). To date, limited understanding of the scope of influence cues to action have on health beliefs and behaviour associated with osteoporosis is known. The present investigation was designed to address this gap in the literature. More specifically, the influence of cues to action, a public service announcement (PSA) developed by Osteoporosis Canada and a bone screening by way of Quantitative Ultrasound, on health beliefs and health-enhancing physical activity (HEPA) across a four week period was investigated. Peri-and postmenopausal women (N= 174) were randomly assigned to one of three conditions 1) an osteoporosis public service announcement (PSA) condition; 2) a bone screening condition via quantitative ultrasound techniques, and 3) a PSA attention control condition. Health beliefs associated with osteoporosis were taken at three time points: prior to the cue to action intervention, immediately following the intervention, and four weeks post intervention. Knowledge of osteorporosis risk factors and HEP A were assessed pre and post-intervention only. Results of a regression analysis suggested that baseline health beliefs predicted baseline HEPA (R2 adj = .24; F (9, 161) = 6.49,p = .000; 95% CI = .12 - .35) with exercise barriers (p = -.33) being a negative predictor and health motivation (p = .21) being a positive predictor of HEP A. Baseline health beliefs predicted

Conceptual Analysis of Web 2.0 Technology Use to Enhance Parent–School Relationships

Parent–school relationships contribute significantly to the quality of students’ education. The Internet, in turn, has started to influence individuals’ way social communication and most school boards in Ontario now use the Internet to communicate with parents, which helps build parent–school relationships. This project comprised a conceptual analysis of how the Internet enhances parent–school relationships to support Ontario school board administrators seeking to implement such technology. The study’s literature review identified the links between Web 2.0 technology, parent–school relationships, and effective parent engagement. A conceptual framework of the features of Web 2.0 tools that promote social interaction was developed and used to analyze websites of three Ontario school boards. The analysis revealed that school board websites used static features such as email, newsletters, and announcements for communication and did not provide access to parents for providing feedback through Web 2.0 features such as instant messaging. General recommendations were made so that school board administrators have the opportunity to implement changes in their school community with feasible modifications. Overall, Web 2.0-based technologies such as interactive communication tools and social media hold the most promise for enhancing parent–school relationships because they can help not only overcome barriers of time and distance, but also improve the parents’ desire to be engaged in children’s education experiences.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.