Vulnerability to adverse consequences of drinking and problem drinker status as predicted by risky drinking behaviours, drug use, sex differences and affect : a test of multiple models /

Although alcohol problems and alcohol consumption are related, consumption does not fully account for differences in vulnerability to alcohol problems. Therefore, other factors should account for these differences. Based on previous research, it was hypothesized that risky drinking behaviours, illicit and prescription drug use, affect and sex differences would account for differences in vulnerability to alcohol problems while statistically controlling for overall alcohol consumption. Four models were developed that were intended to test the predictive ability of these factors, three of which tested the predictor sets separately and a fourth which tested them in a combined model. In addition, two distinct criterion variables were regressed on the predictors. One was a measure of the frequency that participants experienced negative consequences that they attributed to their drinking and the other was a measure of the extent to which participants perceived themselves to be problem drinkers. Each of the models was tested on four samples from different populations, including fIrst year university students, university students in their graduating year, a clinical sample of people in treatment for addiction, and a community sample of young adults randomly selected from the general population. Overall, support was found for each of the models and each of the predictors in accounting for differences in vulnerability to alcohol problems. In particular, the frequency with which people become intoxicated, frequency of illicit drug use and high levels of negative affect were strong and consistent predictors of vulnerability to alcohol problems across samples and criterion variables. With the exception of the clinical sample, the combined models predicted vulnerability to negative consequences better than vulnerability to problem drinker status. Among the clinical and community samples the combined model predicted problem drinker status better than in the student samples.

The relationship between early age of first sexual intercourse and vulnerability to depression among adolescents

Past empirical literature has provided conflicted results regarding the association between adolescent coitus and depression. While some studies conclude that those youth who are sexually active may be at risk for depression, others provide contrary results, or findings that are only representative of high-risk sexual behaviors such as intercourse without a condom. Thus, the results are unclear as to whether depression results directly from coitus, or if this relationship is spurious; that is, there may be biological, psychological, or sociological variables that may predict both depression and early sexual intercourse. Using the Add Health restricted dataset, I analyzed the depressive symptomatology of adolescents over a seven-year time period. The final sample (n=6,51O) was comprised of 49.35% male (n=3,213) and 50.65% female (n=3,297) participants. Results indicated that the relationship between earlier adolescent sexual intercourse and later depressive symptomatology is spurious. Although an earlier age of first coitus is predictive of later depressive symptomatology, both variables appear to be concomitant outcomes of the biopsychosocial process. Thus, while one may be able to use early coitus as a marker for subsequent depressive symptomatology, it does not occur because of early coitus. Furthermore, the reverse relationship was not found to be significant in this study. That is, higher levels of depressive symptomatology do not predict an earlier age of first sexual intercourse in adolescents.

The convergence of psychopathy, self-rated vulnerability, and other-rated vulnerability

Previous research has found that victims of crime tend to exhibit asynchronous movement (e.g. Grayson & Stein, 1981), and the fact that victims display different body language suggests that they may be sending inadvertent signals to their own vulnerability (e.g. Murzynski & Degelman, 1996). Body language has also be en linked with s e l f identification as a victim (Wheeler et aI., 2009), and self-identification has be en found to act as a proxy for more severe victimization (Baumer, 2002) and greater fear of crime (Greenberg & Beach, 2004). The first prediction in the present study, then, was that self-perceived vulnerability would be correlated with body language, while number of previous victimizations mayor may not show the same relationship. Findings from the present study indicate that self-perceived vulnerability exhibits a positive correlation with the body language cues that approaches significance r (10) = .45,p =.07, one-tailed. Different types of victimization, however, were not significantly correlated with these cues. A second goal of the study was to examine the relationship between psychopathic traits and accuracy in judgments of vulnerability. Seventy male participants rated the vulnerability of 12 female targets filmed walking down a hallway who had provided selfratings of vulnerability. Individuals scoring higher on Factor 2 and total psychopathy were significantly less discrepant from target self-rat~ngs of vulnerability, r (64) = - .39,p < .001; r (64) = - .29,p >.01, respectively. The final purpose of this study was to determine which body language cues were mos t salient to raters when making judgments of vulnerability. Participants rated the apparent vulnerability of a target in 7 video clips portraying each body language cue in isolation and a natural walk. Results of repeated measures analyses indicate that the videos rated as most vulnerable to victimization were those displaying low energy and l a ck of synchrony, followed by wide stride, short stride, and stiffknees, while the video displaying ne ck stiffness did not receive significantly different ratings from the mode l ' s natural walk. Replication with a larger sample size is necessary to increase confidence in findings and implications.

Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields