Account book from the Wilcox Estate, 1882-1886

This may be the account book of someone in the wholesale dry goods or grocery business. The account book includes balance sheets for a Waterford store and a Dunnville store. The accounts include clients from several southwestern Ontario communities. Names include Leitch, Turner, Auger, McKim, Beatty, Hewetson, Murton, Bell, Greig, Duggan, Kirk, and Logie. Local Niagara names include: W.B. Chambers of Welland and B.F. Morely of Thorold. Also includes deposit accounts held with Traders Bank of Canada and investments in the Temperance Colonization Society.

Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.