An examination of NHL fans' reactions to the cancelled 2004-2005 season

AN EXAMINATION OF NHL FANS' REACTIONS TO THE CANCELLED 2004- 2005 SEASON Chad Asselstine Faculty of Applied Health Sciences, Brock University Gary Bettman, the Commissioner of the National Hockey League (NHL) stepped in front of the worldwide media on February 16, 2005 to announce that there would be no NHL games played during the 2004-2005 season. Two sides were prominent during the labour dispute; the NHL owners and the NHLP A, however a third side that became the forgotten party was the fans (NHLF A, 2005). The fans are the consumers of the NHL and all the brands associated with its franchises, they are the people who provide the revenues that allow owners to pay the players' salaries. The present study is situated within the sport marketing framework, particularly within the fan loyalty literature to provide an understanding of the impact of the 2004- 2005 lockout on the forgotten party, NHL fans. This study examines 16 fans' experiences in four stages: becoming a fan of the NHL, being a fan prior to the lockout, being a fan during the lockout including their anticipated reaction to the return of the NHL, and their actual reaction to the return of the NHL. Data was collected using face-to-face interviews with each ofthe participants, resulting in 16 fans' stories of how the lockout impacted them specifically. Through analysis of the data themes began to emerge including the fans' understanding that there was a need to restructure game play, the business operations of the NHL, a desire for service recovery strategies which would exceed fans' expectations, 4 and the desire for alternative forms of consumption including alternative hockey leagues as well as the growing popularity of poker playing. The study summarizes the effects that the NHL lockout had on the relationship between 16 individual fan~ and their favourite teams, and concludes with Suggestions for Future Research and Implications for Sport Marketers that emerged from this unique case in the history of North American professional sport.

Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.