18 resultados para Stochastic programming.
em Brock University, Canada
Resumo:
The aim of this thesis is to price options on equity index futures with an application to standard options on S&P 500 futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Our methodology is based on stochastic dynamic programming, which can accommodate European as well as American options. The model accommodates dividends from the underlying asset. It also captures the optimal exercise strategy and the fair value of the option. This approach is an alternative to available numerical pricing methods such as binomial trees, finite differences, and ad-hoc numerical approximation techniques. Our numerical and empirical investigations demonstrate convergence, robustness, and efficiency. We use this methodology to value exchange-listed options. The European option premiums thus obtained are compared to Black's closed-form formula. They are accurate to four digits. The American option premiums also have a similar level of accuracy compared to premiums obtained using finite differences and binomial trees with a large number of time steps. The proposed model accounts for deterministic, seasonally varying dividend yield. In pricing futures options, we discover that what matters is the sum of the dividend yields over the life of the futures contract and not their distribution.
Resumo:
A feature-based fitness function is applied in a genetic programming system to synthesize stochastic gene regulatory network models whose behaviour is defined by a time course of protein expression levels. Typically, when targeting time series data, the fitness function is based on a sum-of-errors involving the values of the fluctuating signal. While this approach is successful in many instances, its performance can deteriorate in the presence of noise. This thesis explores a fitness measure determined from a set of statistical features characterizing the time series' sequence of values, rather than the actual values themselves. Through a series of experiments involving symbolic regression with added noise and gene regulatory network models based on the stochastic 'if-calculus, it is shown to successfully target oscillating and non-oscillating signals. This practical and versatile fitness function offers an alternate approach, worthy of consideration for use in algorithms that evaluate noisy or stochastic behaviour.
Resumo:
A complex network is an abstract representation of an intricate system of interrelated elements where the patterns of connection hold significant meaning. One particular complex network is a social network whereby the vertices represent people and edges denote their daily interactions. Understanding social network dynamics can be vital to the mitigation of disease spread as these networks model the interactions, and thus avenues of spread, between individuals. To better understand complex networks, algorithms which generate graphs exhibiting observed properties of real-world networks, known as graph models, are often constructed. While various efforts to aid with the construction of graph models have been proposed using statistical and probabilistic methods, genetic programming (GP) has only recently been considered. However, determining that a graph model of a complex network accurately describes the target network(s) is not a trivial task as the graph models are often stochastic in nature and the notion of similarity is dependent upon the expected behavior of the network. This thesis examines a number of well-known network properties to determine which measures best allowed networks generated by different graph models, and thus the models themselves, to be distinguished. A proposed meta-analysis procedure was used to demonstrate how these network measures interact when used together as classifiers to determine network, and thus model, (dis)similarity. The analytical results form the basis of the fitness evaluation for a GP system used to automatically construct graph models for complex networks. The GP-based automatic inference system was used to reproduce existing, well-known graph models as well as a real-world network. Results indicated that the automatically inferred models exemplified functional similarity when compared to their respective target networks. This approach also showed promise when used to infer a model for a mammalian brain network.
Resumo:
The curse of dimensionality is a major problem in the fields of machine learning, data mining and knowledge discovery. Exhaustive search for the most optimal subset of relevant features from a high dimensional dataset is NP hard. Sub–optimal population based stochastic algorithms such as GP and GA are good choices for searching through large search spaces, and are usually more feasible than exhaustive and deterministic search algorithms. On the other hand, population based stochastic algorithms often suffer from premature convergence on mediocre sub–optimal solutions. The Age Layered Population Structure (ALPS) is a novel metaheuristic for overcoming the problem of premature convergence in evolutionary algorithms, and for improving search in the fitness landscape. The ALPS paradigm uses an age–measure to control breeding and competition between individuals in the population. This thesis uses a modification of the ALPS GP strategy called Feature Selection ALPS (FSALPS) for feature subset selection and classification of varied supervised learning tasks. FSALPS uses a novel frequency count system to rank features in the GP population based on evolved feature frequencies. The ranked features are translated into probabilities, which are used to control evolutionary processes such as terminal–symbol selection for the construction of GP trees/sub-trees. The FSALPS metaheuristic continuously refines the feature subset selection process whiles simultaneously evolving efficient classifiers through a non–converging evolutionary process that favors selection of features with high discrimination of class labels. We investigated and compared the performance of canonical GP, ALPS and FSALPS on high–dimensional benchmark classification datasets, including a hyperspectral image. Using Tukey’s HSD ANOVA test at a 95% confidence interval, ALPS and FSALPS dominated canonical GP in evolving smaller but efficient trees with less bloat expressions. FSALPS significantly outperformed canonical GP and ALPS and some reported feature selection strategies in related literature on dimensionality reduction.
Resumo:
The curse of dimensionality is a major problem in the fields of machine learning, data mining and knowledge discovery. Exhaustive search for the most optimal subset of relevant features from a high dimensional dataset is NP hard. Sub–optimal population based stochastic algorithms such as GP and GA are good choices for searching through large search spaces, and are usually more feasible than exhaustive and determinis- tic search algorithms. On the other hand, population based stochastic algorithms often suffer from premature convergence on mediocre sub–optimal solutions. The Age Layered Population Structure (ALPS) is a novel meta–heuristic for overcoming the problem of premature convergence in evolutionary algorithms, and for improving search in the fitness landscape. The ALPS paradigm uses an age–measure to control breeding and competition between individuals in the population. This thesis uses a modification of the ALPS GP strategy called Feature Selection ALPS (FSALPS) for feature subset selection and classification of varied supervised learning tasks. FSALPS uses a novel frequency count system to rank features in the GP population based on evolved feature frequencies. The ranked features are translated into probabilities, which are used to control evolutionary processes such as terminal–symbol selection for the construction of GP trees/sub-trees. The FSALPS meta–heuristic continuously refines the feature subset selection process whiles simultaneously evolving efficient classifiers through a non–converging evolutionary process that favors selection of features with high discrimination of class labels. We investigated and compared the performance of canonical GP, ALPS and FSALPS on high–dimensional benchmark classification datasets, including a hyperspectral image. Using Tukey’s HSD ANOVA test at a 95% confidence interval, ALPS and FSALPS dominated canonical GP in evolving smaller but efficient trees with less bloat expressions. FSALPS significantly outperformed canonical GP and ALPS and some reported feature selection strategies in related literature on dimensionality reduction.
Resumo:
The topic of this research was alternative programming in secondary public education. The purpose of this research was to explore the perceived effectiveness of two public secondary programs that are aJternative to mainstream or "regular" education. Two case study sites were used to research diverse ends of the aJtemative programming continuum. The first case study demonstrated a gifted program and the second demonstrated a behavioral program. Student needs were examined in terms of academic needs, emotional needs, career needs, and social needs. Research conducted in these sites examined how the students, teachers, onsite staff, and program administrators perceived that individual needs were met and unmet in these two programs. The study was qualitative and exploratory, using deductive and inductive research techniques. Similar themes of best practice that were identified in the case study sites aided in the development of a teaching and learning model. Four themes were identified as important within the case study sites. These themes included the commitment and motivation of teachers and the support of administration in the gifted program, and the importance of location and the flow of information and communication in the behavior program. Six themes emerged that were similar across the case study sites. These themes included the individual nature of programming, recognition of student achievement, the alternative program as a place of safety and community, importance of interpersonal capacity, priority of basic needs, and, finally, matching student capacity with program expectations. The model incorporates these themes and is designed as a resource for teachers, program administrators, parents, and policy makers of alternative educational programs.
Resumo:
Our objective is to develop a diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm to estimate the exact expectation values, ($o|^|^o), of multiplicative operators, such as polarizabilities and high-order hyperpolarizabilities, for isolated atoms and molecules. The existing forward-walking pure diffusion Monte Carlo (FW-PDMC) algorithm which attempts this has a serious bias. On the other hand, the DMC algorithm with minimal stochastic reconfiguration provides unbiased estimates of the energies, but the expectation values ($o|^|^) are contaminated by ^, an user specified, approximate wave function, when A does not commute with the Hamiltonian. We modified the latter algorithm to obtain the exact expectation values for these operators, while at the same time eliminating the bias. To compare the efficiency of FW-PDMC and the modified DMC algorithms we calculated simple properties of the H atom, such as various functions of coordinates and polarizabilities. Using three non-exact wave functions, one of moderate quality and the others very crude, in each case the results are within statistical error of the exact values.
Resumo:
This research studioo the effect of integrated instruction in mathematics and~ science on student achievement in and attitude towards both mathematics and science. A group of grade 9 academic students received instruction in both science and mathematics in an integrated program specifically developed for the purposes of the research. This group was compared to a control group that had received science and mathematics instruction in a traditional, nonintegrated program. The findings showed that in all measures of attitude, there was no significant difference between the students who participated in the integrated science and mathematics program and those who participated in a traditional science and mathematics program. The findings also revealed that integration did improve achievement on some of the measures used. The performance on mathematics open-ended problem-solving tasks improved after participation in the integrated program, suggesting that the integrated students were better able to apply their understanding of mathematics in a real-life context. The performance on the final science exam was also improved for the integrated group. Improvement was not noted on the other measures, which included EQAO scores and laboratory practical tasks. These results raise the issue of the suitability of the instruments used to gauge both achievement and attitude. The accuracy and suitability of traditional measures of achievement are considered. It is argued that they should not necessarily be used as the measure of the value of integrated instruction in a science and mathematics classroom.
Resumo:
This thesis will introduce a new strongly typed programming language utilizing Self types, named Win--*Foy, along with a suitable user interface designed specifically to highlight language features. The need for such a programming language is based on deficiencies found in programming languages that support both Self types and subtyping. Subtyping is a concept that is taken for granted by most software engineers programming in object-oriented languages. Subtyping supports subsumption but it does not support the inheritance of binary methods. Binary methods contain an argument of type Self, the same type as the object itself, in a contravariant position, i.e. as a parameter. There are several arguments in favour of introducing Self types into a programming language (11. This rationale led to the development of a relation that has become known as matching [4, 5). The matching relation does not support subsumption, however, it does support the inheritance of binary methods. Two forms of matching have been proposed (lJ. Specifically, these relations are known as higher-order matching and I-bound matching. Previous research on these relations indicates that the higher-order matching relation is both reflexive and transitive whereas the f-bound matching is reflexive but not transitive (7]. The higher-order matching relation provides significant flexibility regarding inheritance of methods that utilize or return values of the same type. This flexibility, in certain situations, can restrict the programmer from defining specific classes and methods which are based on constant values [21J. For this reason, the type This is used as a second reference to the type of the object that cannot, contrary to Self, be specialized in subclasses. F-bound matching allows a programmer to define a function that will work for all types of A', a subtype of an upper bound function of type A, with the result type being dependent on A'. The use of parametric polymorphism in f-bound matching provides a connection to subtyping in object-oriented languages. This thesis will contain two main sections. Firstly, significant details concerning deficiencies of the subtype relation and the need to introduce higher-order and f-bound matching relations into programming languages will be explored. Secondly, a new programming language named Win--*Foy Functional Object-Oriented Programming Language has been created, along with a suitable user interface, in order to facilitate experimentation by programmers regarding the matching relation. The construction of the programming language and the user interface will be explained in detail.
Resumo:
The Robocup Rescue Simulation System (RCRSS) is a dynamic system of multi-agent interaction, simulating a large-scale urban disaster scenario. Teams of rescue agents are charged with the tasks of minimizing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage while competing against limitations on time, communication, and awareness. This thesis provides the first known attempt of applying Genetic Programming (GP) to the development of behaviours necessary to perform well in the RCRSS. Specifically, this thesis studies the suitability of GP to evolve the operational behaviours required of each type of rescue agent in the RCRSS. The system developed is evaluated in terms of the consistency with which expected solutions are the target of convergence as well as by comparison to previous competition results. The results indicate that GP is capable of converging to some forms of expected behaviour, but that additional evolution in strategizing behaviours must be performed in order to become competitive. An enhancement to the standard GP algorithm is proposed which is shown to simplify the initial search space allowing evolution to occur much quicker. In addition, two forms of population are employed and compared in terms of their apparent effects on the evolution of control structures for intelligent rescue agents. The first is a single population in which each individual is comprised of three distinct trees for the respective control of three types of agents, the second is a set of three co-evolving subpopulations one for each type of agent. Multiple populations of cooperating individuals appear to achieve higher proficiencies in training, but testing on unseen instances raises the issue of overfitting.
Resumo:
Three dimensional model design is a well-known and studied field, with numerous real-world applications. However, the manual construction of these models can often be time-consuming to the average user, despite the advantages o ffered through computational advances. This thesis presents an approach to the design of 3D structures using evolutionary computation and L-systems, which involves the automated production of such designs using a strict set of fitness functions. These functions focus on the geometric properties of the models produced, as well as their quantifiable aesthetic value - a topic which has not been widely investigated with respect to 3D models. New extensions to existing aesthetic measures are discussed and implemented in the presented system in order to produce designs which are visually pleasing. The system itself facilitates the construction of models requiring minimal user initialization and no user-based feedback throughout the evolutionary cycle. The genetic programming evolved models are shown to satisfy multiple criteria, conveying a relationship between their assigned aesthetic value and their perceived aesthetic value. Exploration into the applicability and e ffectiveness of a multi-objective approach to the problem is also presented, with a focus on both performance and visual results. Although subjective, these results o er insight into future applications and study in the fi eld of computational aesthetics and automated structure design.
Resumo:
This thesis focuses on developing an evolutionary art system using genetic programming. The main goal is to produce new forms of evolutionary art that filter existing images into new non-photorealistic (NPR) styles, by obtaining images that look like traditional media such as watercolor or pencil, as well as brand new effects. The approach permits GP to generate creative forms of NPR results. The GP language is extended with different techniques and methods inspired from NPR research such as colour mixing expressions, image processing filters and painting algorithm. Colour mixing is a major new contribution, as it enables many familiar and innovative NPR effects to arise. Another major innovation is that many GP functions process the canvas (rendered image), while is dynamically changing. Automatic fitness scoring uses aesthetic evaluation models and statistical analysis, and multi-objective fitness evaluation is used. Results showed a variety of NPR effects, as well as new, creative possibilities.
Resumo:
Complex networks can arise naturally and spontaneously from all things that act as a part of a larger system. From the patterns of socialization between people to the way biological systems organize themselves, complex networks are ubiquitous, but are currently poorly understood. A number of algorithms, designed by humans, have been proposed to describe the organizational behaviour of real-world networks. Consequently, breakthroughs in genetics, medicine, epidemiology, neuroscience, telecommunications and the social sciences have recently resulted. The algorithms, called graph models, represent significant human effort. Deriving accurate graph models is non-trivial, time-intensive, challenging and may only yield useful results for very specific phenomena. An automated approach can greatly reduce the human effort required and if effective, provide a valuable tool for understanding the large decentralized systems of interrelated things around us. To the best of the author's knowledge this thesis proposes the first method for the automatic inference of graph models for complex networks with varied properties, with and without community structure. Furthermore, to the best of the author's knowledge it is the first application of genetic programming for the automatic inference of graph models. The system and methodology was tested against benchmark data, and was shown to be capable of reproducing close approximations to well-known algorithms designed by humans. Furthermore, when used to infer a model for real biological data the resulting model was more representative than models currently used in the literature.
Resumo:
Passive solar building design is the process of designing a building while considering sunlight exposure for receiving heat in winter and rejecting heat in summer. The main goal of a passive solar building design is to remove or reduce the need of mechanical and electrical systems for cooling and heating, and therefore saving energy costs and reducing environmental impact. This research will use evolutionary computation to design passive solar buildings. Evolutionary design is used in many research projects to build 3D models for structures automatically. In this research, we use a mixture of split grammar and string-rewriting for generating new 3D structures. To evaluate energy costs, the EnergyPlus system is used. This is a comprehensive building energy simulation system, which will be used alongside the genetic programming system. In addition, genetic programming will also consider other design and geometry characteristics of the building as search objectives, for example, window placement, building shape, size, and complexity. In passive solar designs, reducing energy that is needed for cooling and heating are two objectives of interest. Experiments show that smaller buildings with no windows and skylights are the most energy efficient models. Window heat gain is another objective used to encourage models to have windows. In addition, window and volume based objectives are tried. To examine the impact of environment on designs, experiments are run on five different geographic locations. Also, both single floor models and multi-floor models are examined in this research. According to the experiments, solutions from the experiments were consistent with respect to materials, sizes, and appearance, and satisfied problem constraints in all instances.
Resumo:
Genetic Programming (GP) is a widely used methodology for solving various computational problems. GP's problem solving ability is usually hindered by its long execution times. In this thesis, GP is applied toward real-time computer vision. In particular, object classification and tracking using a parallel GP system is discussed. First, a study of suitable GP languages for object classification is presented. Two main GP approaches for visual pattern classification, namely the block-classifiers and the pixel-classifiers, were studied. Results showed that the pixel-classifiers generally performed better. Using these results, a suitable language was selected for the real-time implementation. Synthetic video data was used in the experiments. The goal of the experiments was to evolve a unique classifier for each texture pattern that existed in the video. The experiments revealed that the system was capable of correctly tracking the textures in the video. The performance of the system was on-par with real-time requirements.