Additional Return for Ordnance Stores for the Use of Capt. Thos. Biddle’s Compy Corps of Artillery, June 24, 1814

Jacob Hindman (1789-1827) was an American military officer who was a captain of the Second U.S. Artillery during the War of 1812. He commanded troops at the battles at Fort George and Stony Creek in 1813, and in June of that year became the major of the Second Artillery. He remained in this position until May of 1814 when the regiment was merged with the Corps of Artillery. During the Niagara campaign in 1814, Hindman’s company commanders included Nathan Towson, Thomas Biddle, John Ritchie, and Alexander Williams. During the British attack on Fort Erie in August 1814, Hindman led an assault for which he later received a brevet promotion to lieutenant colonel for “gallant conduct in the defense of Fort Erie”. In 1815, he received an additional brevet for “meritorious services”. He is generally regarded as one of the most successful artillerists of the War of 1812. James Hall (1793-1868) served with the U.S. military as a second lieutenant in the Second Artillery during the War of 1812. He fought in the Battle of Lundy’s Lane and was General Brown’s messenger during the attack on Fort Erie. He left the military in 1818 and became a newspaper editor and author. His experiences during the War of 1812 provided material for two stories, The Bearer of Despatches and Empty Pockets. Much of his work sought to popularize the West and promote western authors.

Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.