10 resultados para Rischio finanziario, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall

em Brock University, Canada


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This study examined students considered at risk of non-completion of their Ontario Secondary School Diploma and aimed to offer insight into the questions, "What factors currently lead to school disconnect" and "How can these factors be addressed?" Eight students currently enrolled in an alternative learning environment participated in the study. Each was asked to take part in two, digitally recorded interviews that were subsequently transcribed by the researcher. The data were then coded and analysed according to specific themes: obstacles, empowerment, goals, views about success, opinions of school, and power of the teacher. From these themes, three broad focus areas emerged that were used to keep the data analysis focused: worldview, school effects, and self-image. Variances between the data collected and ideas presented in the current literature were highlighted as a reminder that when dealing with a human population, we cannot rely on textbook definitions and theory alone.

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Both educators and politicians appear to be quite concerned about a dropout rate in Ontario's public schools of some 30 percent. With the basic understanding that a high dropout rate is costly both in economic terms and in human terms, something quite obviously needs to be done to reduce the dropout rate in Ontario schools and, in doing so, ensuring Ontario and its graduates an active role in a growing global economy. This study is an exploratory pilot study in that it examined mentoring and the role that mentoring can play in assisting a student in staying in school and graduating from secondary school. Also incorporated in this is co-operative education and the role it can play, through mentoring, in making students aware of lifestyle level of employment, and of the skills necessary to obtain gainful, meaningful employment. In order to gain information on student attitudes, needs and expectations of a mentoring situation, a series of three questionnaires was used. Also, a questionnaire was distributed to the various co-operative education employers. The intent of this questionnaire was to probe the attitudes, needs and expectations of a mentoring situation from the perspective of an employer. The findings of this study indicated that co-operative education and mentoring are a very valuable and useful component in education. There exist certain factors in a co-operative education setting that serve to enhance and to augment the traditional or "theoretical" setting of the classroom. In addition, a mentoring situation tends to add a sense of relevance to education that students seem to require. Also, an opportunity is offered that allows a student to practice and further refine the skills that have been taught over the course of the student's academic life. Results from this study suggested that a mentoring situation, occurring through a co-operative education situation, adds relevance and a sense of "application" to the traditional or classroom schooling situation. The whole idea of mentoring bodes well for the future of education and of the student. Many advantages are identified in a mentoring situation. One of the advantages is that the schools are able to work quite closely with the community and business in order to stay current and informed on the needs and expected needs of the business community. Co-operative education has now gone beyond being an "experimental" mode of education. All students can benefit from being involved in the program. Certainly at-risk students are aided with staying in school. Those students who are said to be not at-risk can also benefit from being enrolled in the program by gaining hands-on work experience and some of the necessary skills to ensure a place in a growing world economy.

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All life is suffering. Life is the pursuit ofhappiness. These are two foundational Buddhist dictums that, in their simplicity, I have entirely misunderstood regarding their depth, misreading them as contradictory. Indeed, my superficial interpretations led me to Thoreau's life ofquiet desperation and deep depression. We come to know and bring understanding to our lives by storying them. My own Hero's Journey, the path from my egoic selftoward the universal Self, can be understood as the resultant translations and transformations. Inevitably each of us is involved in such a story, though most are unaware of the stages along our own Hero's journey. ' Narrative honours writing as a means of knowing. The contemplative reflection allows insight into our imprisoning paradigms, beliefs, behaviours, and blind spots. My research revisits and explores nodal experiences along my Hero's Journey through 4 categories: self, society, soil, and Self. While the value of this process of narrative inquiry lay in its ability to come to know and understand one's self, perhaps its greater value is of a more universal nature. My inquiry, while adding to the body of academic educational narrative literature, may also illuminate a path to educators, students, and all interested, encouraging a response to the call of their own Hero's journey. I am a teacher/learner in a jail setting, working with youth between the ages of 12 and 18 who have committed crimes such as armed robbery, assault, rape, and murder. As this thesis follows my continual development from egoic self/teacher/learner to universal Self/Teacher/Learner, it also enables me to both consciously and unconsciously open the ways in which I expand my care, compassion, and love to work with at-risk youth.

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BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.

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Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is a major healthcare problem, representing the third most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Chronic infections with Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or Hepatitis C virus (HCV) are the major risk factors for the development of HCC. The incidence of HBV -associated HCC is in decline as a result of an effective HBV vaccine; however, since an equally effective HCV vaccine has not yet been developed, there are 130 million HCV infected patients worldwide who are at a high-risk for developing HCC. Because reliable parameters and/or tools for the early detection of HCC among high-risk individuals are severely lacking, HCC patients are always diagnosed at a late stage where surgical solutions or effective treatment are not possible. Using urine as a non-invasive sample source, two different approaches (proteomic-based and genomic-based approaches) were pursued with the common goal of discovering potential biomarker candidates for the early detection of HCC among high-risk chronic HCV infected patients. Urine was collected from 106 HCV infected Egyptian patients, 32 of whom had already developed HCC and 74 patients who were diagnosed as HCC-free at the time of initial sample collection. In addition to these patients, urine samples were also collected from 12 healthy control individuals. Total urinary proteins, Trans-renal nucleic acid (Tr-NA) and microRNA (miRNA) were isolated from urine using novel methodologies and silicon carbide-loaded spin columns. In the first, "proteomic-based", approach, liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was used to identify potential candidates from pooled urine samples. This was followed by validating relative expression levels of proteins present in urine among all the patients using quantitative real time-PCR (qRT-PCR). This approach revealed that significant over-expression of three proteins: DJ-1, Chromatin Assembly Factor-1 (CAF-1) and 11 Moemen Abdalla HCC Biomarkers Heat Shock Protein 60 (HSP60), were characteristic events among HCC-post HCV infected patients. As a single-based HCC biomarker, CAF-1 over-expression identified HCC among HCV infected patients with a specificity of 90%, sensitivity of 66% and with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 78%. Moreover, the CAF-lIHSP60 tandem identified HCC among HCV infected patients with a specificity of 92%, sensitivity of 61 % and with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 77%. In the second genomic-based approach, two different approaches were processed. The first approach was the miRNA-based approach. The expression levels of miRNAs isolated from urine were studied using the Illumina MicroRNA Expression Profiling Assay. This was followed by qRT-PCR-based validation of deregulated expression of identified miRNA candidates among all the patients. This approach shed the light on the deregulated expression of a number of miRNAs, which may have a role in either the development of HCC among HCV infected patients (i.e. miR-640, miR-765, miR-200a, miR-521 and miR-520) or may allow for a better understanding of the viral-host interaction (miR-152, miR-486, miR-219, miR452, miR-425, miR-154 and miR-31). Moreover, the deregulated expression of both miR-618 and miR-650 appeared to be a common event among HCC-post HCV infected patients. The results of the search for putative targets of these two miRNA suggested that miR-618 may be a potent oncogene, as it targets the tumor-suppressor gene Low density lipoprotein-related protein 12 (LPR12), while miR-650 may be a potent tumor-suppressor gene, as it is supposed to downregulate the TNF receptor-associated factor-4 (TRAF4) oncogene. The specificity of miR-618 and miR-650 deregulated expression patterns for the early detection of HCC among HCV infected patients was 68% and 58%, respectively, whereas the sensitivity was 64% and 72%, respectively. When the deregulated expression of both miRNAs was combined as a tandem biomarker, the specificity and the sensitivity were 75% and 58% respectively. 111 Moemen Abdalla HCC Biomarkers In the second, "Trans-renal nucleic acid-based", approach, the urinary apoptotic nucleic acid (uaNA) levels of 70ng/mL or more were found to be a good predictor of HCC among chronic HCV infected patients. The specificity and the sensitivity of this diagnostic approach were 76% and 86%, respectively, with an overall diagnostic value of 81 %. The uaNA levels positively correlated to HCC disease progression as monitored by epigenetic changes of a panel of eight tumor-suppressor genes (TSGs) using methylation-sensitive PCR. Moreover, the pairing of high uaNA levels (:::: 70 ng/mL) and CAF-1 over-expreSSIOn produced a highly specific (l 00%) multiple-based HCC biomarker with an acceptable sensitivity of 64%, and with a diagnostic accuracy of 82%. In comparison to the previous pairing, the uaNA levels (:::: 70 ng/mL) in tandem with HSP60 over-expression was less specific (89%) but highly sensitive (72%), resulting in a diagnostic accuracy of 64%. The specificities of miR-650 deregulated expression in combination with either high uaNA content or HSP 60 over-expression were 82% and 79%, respectively, whereas, the sensitivities of these combinations were 64% and 58%, respectively. The potential biomarkers identified in this study compare favorably with the diagnostic accuracy of the a-fetoprotein levels test, which has a specificity of 75%, sensitivity of 68% and an overall diagnostic accuracy of 70%. Here we present an intriguing study which shows the significance of using urine as a noninvasive sample source for the identification of promising HCC biomarkers. We have also introduced new techniques for the isolation of different urinary macromolecules, especially miRNA, from urine. Furthermore, we strongly recommend the potential biomarkers indentified in this study as focal points of any future research on HCC diagnosis. A larger testing pool will determine if their use is practical for mass population screening. This explorative study identified potential targets that merit further investigation for the development of diagnostically accurate biomarkers isolated from 1-2 mL urine samples that were acquired in a non-invasive manner.

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Introduction: The prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is ever increasing in western industrialized societies. An individuals overall risk for CAD may be quantified by integrating a number of factors including, but not limited to, cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipid profile and blood pressure. It might be expected that interventions aimed at improving any or all of these independent factors might improve an individual 's overall risk. To this end, the influence of standard endurance type exercise on cardiorespiratory fitness, body composition, blood lipids and blood pressure, and by extension the reduction of coronary risk factors, is well documented. On the other hand, interval training (IT) has been shown to provide an extremely powerful stimulus for improving indices of cardiorespiratory function but the influence of this training type on coronary risk factors is unknown. Moreover, the vast majority of studies investigating the effects of IT on fitness have used laboratory type training protocols. As a result of this, the influence of participation in interval-type recreational sports on cardiorespiratory fitness and coronary risk factors is unknown. Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of recreational ball hockey, a sport associated with interval-type activity patterns, on indices of aerobic function and coronary risk factors in sedentary men in the approximate age range of 30 - 60 years. Individual risk factors were compiled into an overall coronary risk factor score using the Framingham Point Scale (FPS). Methods: Twenty-four sedentary males (age range 30 - 60) participated in the study. Subject activity level was assessed apriori using questionnaire responses. All subjects (experimental and control) were assessed to have been inactive and sedentary prior to participation in the study. The experimental group (43 ± 3 years; 90 ± 3 kg) (n = 11) participated in one season of recreational ball hockey (our surrogate for IT). Member of this group played a total of 16 games during an 11 week span. During this time, the control group (43 ± 2 years; 89 ± 2 kg) (n = 11) performed no training and continued with their sedentary lifestyle. Prior to and following the ball hockey season, experimental and control subjects were tested for the following variables: 1) cardiorespiratory fitness (as V02 Max) 2) blood lipid profile 3) body composition 5) waist to hip ratio 6) blood glucose levels and 7) blood pressure. Subject V02 Max was assessed using the Rockport submaximal walking test on an indoor track. To assess body composition we determined body mass ratio (BMI), % body fat, % lean body mass and waist to hip ratio. The blood lipid profile included high density lipoprotein, low density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels; in addition, the ratio of total cholesterol to high density was calculated. Blood triglycerides were also assessed. All data were analyzed using independent t - tests and all data are expressed as mean ± standard error. Statistical significance was accepted at p :S 0.05. Results: Pre-test values for all variables were similar between the experimental and control group. Moreover, although the intervention used in this study was associated with changes in some variables for subjects in the experimental group, subjects in the control group did not exhibit any changes over the same time period. BODY COMPOSITION: The % body fat of experimental subjects decreased by 4.6 ± 0.5%, from 28.1 ± 2.6 to 26.9 ± 2.5 % while that of the control group was unchanged at 22.7 ± 1.4 and 22.2 ± 1.3 %. However, lean body mass of experimental and control subjects did not change at 64.3 ± 1.3 versus 66.1 ± 1.3 kg and 65.5 ± 0.8 versus 64.7 ± 0.8 kg, respectively. In terms of body mass index and waist to hip ratio, neither the experimental nor the control group showed any significant change. Respective values for the waist to hip ratio and body mass index (pre and post) were as follows: 1 ± 0.1 vs 0.9 ± 0.1 (experimental) and 0.9 ± 0.1 versus 0.9 ± 0.1 (controls) while for BMI they were 29 ± 1.4 versus 29 ± 1.2 (experimental) and 26 ± 0.7 vs. 26 ± 0.7 (controls). CARDIORESPIRATORY FITNESS: In the experimental group, predicted values for absolute V02 Max increased by 10 ± 3% (i.e. 3.3 ± 0.1 to 3.6 ± 0.1 liters min -1 while that of control subjects did not change (3.4 ± 0.2 and 3.4 ± 0.2 liters min-I). In terms of relative values for V02 Max, the experimental group increased by 11 ± 2% (37 ± 1.4 to 41 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I) while that of control subjects did not change (41 ± 1.4 and 40 ± 1.4 ml kg-l min-I). BLOOD LIPIDS: Compared to pre-test values, post-test values for HDL were decreased by 14 ± 5 % in the experiment group (from 52.4 ± 4.4 to 45.2 ± 4.3 mg dl-l) while HDL data for the control group was unchanged (49.7 ± 3.6 and 48.3 ± 4.1 mg dl-l, respectively. On the other hand, LDL levels did not change for either the experimental or control group (110.2 ± 10.4 versus 112.3 ± 7.1 mg dl-1 and 106.1 ± 11.3 versus 127 ± 15.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Further, total cholesterol did not change in either the experimental or control group (181.3 ± 8.7 mg dl-1 versus 178.7± 4.9 mg dl-l) and 190.7 ± 12.2 versus 197.1 ± 16.1 mg dl-1, respectively). Similarly, the ratio of TC/HDL did not change for either the experimental or control group (3.8 ± 0.4 versus 4.5 ± 0.5 and 4 ± 0.4 versus 4.2 ± 0.4, respectively). Blood triglyceride levels were also not altered in either the experimental or control group (100.3 ± 19.6 versus 114.8 ± 15.3 mg dl-1 and 140 ± 23.5 versus 137.3 ± 17.9 mg dl-l, respectively). BLOOD GLUCOSE: Fasted blood glucose levels did not change in either the experimental or control group. Pre- and post-values for experimental and control groups were 92.5 ± 4.8 versus 93.3 ± 4.3 mg dl-l and 92.3 ± 11.3 versus 93.2 ± 2.6 mg dl-1 , respectively. BLOOD PRESSURE: No aspect of blood pressure was altered in either the experimental or control group. For example, pre- and post-test systolic blood pressures were 131 ± 2 versus 129 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 123 ± 2 and 125 ± 2 mmHg (controls), respectively. Pre- and post-test diastolic blood pressures were 84 ± 2 and 83 ± 2 mmHg (experimental) and 81 ± 1 versus 82 ± 1 mmHg, respectively. Similarly, calculated pulse pressure was not altered in the experimental or control as pre- and post-test values were 47 ± 1 versus 47 ± 2 mmlHg and 42 ± 2 versus 43 ± 2 mmHg, respectively. FRAMINGHAM POINT SCORE: The concerted changes reported above produced an increased risk in the Framingham Point Score for the subjects in the experimental group. For example, the pre- and post-test FPS increased from 1.4 ± 0.9 to 2.7 ± 0.7. On the other hand, pre- and post-test scores for the control group were 1.8 ± 1 versus 1.8 ± 0.9. Conclusions: Our data confirms previous studies showing that interval-type exercise is a useful intervention for increasing aerobic fitness. Moreover, the increase in V02 Max we found in response to limited participation in ball hockey (i.e. 16 games) suggests that recreational sport may help reduce this aspect of coronary risk in previously sedentary individual. On the other hand, our results showing little or no positive change in body composition, blood lipids or blood pressures suggest that one season of recreational sport in not in of itself a powerful enough stimulus to reduce the overall risk of coronary artery disease. In light of this, it is recommended that, in addition to participation in recreational sport, the performance of regular physical activity is used as an adjunct to provide a more powerful overall stimulus for decreasing coronary risk factors. LIMITATIONS: The increase in the FPS we found for the experimental group, indicative of an increased risk for coronary disease, was largely due to the large decrease in HDL we observed after compared to above one season of ball hockey. In light of the fact that cardiorespiratory fitness was increased and % body fat was decreased, as well as the fact that other parameters such as blood pressure showed positive (but non statistically significant) trends, the possibility that the decrease in HDL showed by our data was anomalous should be considered. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: The results of this study suggesting that recreational sport may be a potentially useful intervention in the reduction of CAD require to be corroborated by future studies specifically employing 1) more rigorous assessment of fitness and fitness change and 2) more prolonged or frequent participants.

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This thesis examines the quality of credit ratings issued by the three major credit rating agencies - Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch. If credit ratings are informative, then prices of underlying credit instruments such as fixed-income securities and credit default insurance should change to reflect the new credit risk information. Using data on 246 different major fixed income securities issuers and spanning January 2000 to December 2011, we find that credit default swaps (CDS) spreads do not react to changes in credit ratings. Hence credit ratings for all three agencies are not price informative. CDS prices are mostly determined by historical CDS prices while ratings are mostly determined by historical ratings. We find that credit ratings are marginally more sensitive to CDS than CDS are sensitive to ratings.

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The learning gap created by summer vacation creates a significant breach in the learning cycle, where student achievement levels decrease over the course ofthe summer (Cooper et aI., 2000). In a review of 39 studies, Cooper and colleagues (1996) specified that the summer learning shortfall equals at least one month loss of instruction as measured by grade level equivalents on standardized test scores. Specifically, the achievement gap has a more profound effect on children as they grow older, where there is a steady deterioration in knowledge and skills sustained during the summer months (Cooper et aI., 1996; Kerry & Davies, 1998). While some stakeholders believe that the benefits of a summer vacation overshadow the reversing effect on achievement, it is the impact of the summer learning gap on vulnerable children, including children who are disadvantaged as a result of requiring special educational needs, children from low socioeconomic backgrounds, and children learning English as a second language, that is most problematic. More specifically, research has demonstrated that it is children's literacy-based skills that are most affected during the summer months. Children from high socioeconomic backgrounds recurrently showed gains in reading achievement over the summer whereas disadvantaged children repeatedly illustrate having significant losses. Consequently, the summer learning gap was deemed to exaggerate the inequality experienced by children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Ultimately, the summer learning gap was found to have the most profound on vulnerable children, placing these children at an increased chance for academic failure. A primary feature of this research project was to include primary caregivers as authentic partners in a summer family literacy program fabricated to scaffold their children's literacy-based needs. This feature led to the research team adapting and implementing a published study entitled, Learning Begins at Home (LBH): A Research-Based Family Literacy Program Curriculum. Researchers at the Ontario Institute designed this program for the Study of Education, University of Toronto. The LBH program capitalized on incorporating the flexibility required to make the program adaptable to meet the needs of each participating child and his or her primary caregiver. As it has been well documented in research, the role primary caregivers have in an intervention program are the most influential on a child's future literacy success or failure (Timmons, 2008). Subsequently, a requirement for participating in the summer family literacy program required the commitment of one child and one of his or her primary caregivers. The primary caregiver played a fundamental role in the intervention program through their participation in workshop activities prior to and following hands on work with their child. The purpose of including the primary caregiver as an authentic partner in the program was to encourage a definitive shift in the family, whereby caregivers would begin to implement literacy activities in their home on a daily basis. The intervention program was socially constructed through the collaboration of knowledge. The role ofthe author in the study was as the researcher, in charge of analyzing and interpreting the results of the study. There were a total of thirty-six (36) participants in the study; there were nineteen (19) participants in the intervention group and seventeen (17) participants in the control group. All of the children who participated in the study were enrolled in junior kindergarten classrooms within the Niagara Catholic District School Board. Once children were referred to the program, a Speech and Language Pathologist assessed each individual child to identify if they met the eligibility requirements for participation in the summer family literacy intervention program. To be eligible to participate, children were required to demonstrate having significant literacy needs (i.e., below 25%ile on the Test of Preschool Early Literacy described below). Children with low incident disabilities (such as Autism or Intellectual Disabilities) and children with significant English as a Second Language difficulties were excluded from the study. The research team utilized a standard pre-test-post-test comparison group design whereby all participating children were assessed with the Test of Preschool Early Literacy (Lonigan et aI., 2007), and a standard measure of letter identification and letter sound understanding. Pre-intervention assessments were conducted two weeks prior to the intervention program commencing, and the first set of the post-intervention assessments were administered immediately following the completion of the intervention program. The follow-up post-intervention assessments took place in December 2010 to measure the sustainability of the gains obtained from the intervention program. As a result of the program, all of the children in the intervention program scored statistically significantly higher on their literacy scores for Print Knowledge, Letter Identification, and Letter Sound Understanding scores than the control group at the postintervention assessment point (immediately following the completion of the program) and at the December post-intervention assessment point. For Phonological Awareness, there was no statistically significant difference between the intervention group and the control at the postintervention assessment point, however, there was a statistically significant difference found between the intervention group and the control group at the December post-intervention assessment point. In general, these results indicate that the summer family literacy intervention program made an immediate impact on the emergent literacy skills of the participating children. Moreover, these results indicate that the summer family literacy intervention program has the ability to foster the emergent literacy skills of vulnerable children, potentially reversing the negative effect the summer learning gap has on these children.

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This dissertation investigates the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and managerial risk-taking, as well as the differences in governance structure that affect this association. Using a sample of US public firms from 1995 to 2009, we find that firms with strong CSR records engage in higher risk-taking. Furthermore, we find that this relationship is robust when accounting for differences in governance structure and correcting for endogeneity via simultaneous equations modeling. Additional testing indicates that performance in the employee relations dimension of CSR in particular increases with risk-taking, while high firm visibility dampens the association between CSR and the accounting-based measures of risk-taking. Prior literature establishes that high managerial risk-tolerance is necessary for the undertaking of risky yet value-enhancing investment decisions. Thus, the main findings suggest that CSR, rather than being a waste of scarce corporate resources, is instead an important aspect of shareholder value creation. They contribute to the debate on CSR by documenting that corporate risk-taking is one mechanism among others through which CSR maps into higher firm value.

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Later-born siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are considered at biological risk for ASD and the broader autism phenotype. Early screening may detect early signs of ASD and facilitate intervention as soon as possible. This follow-up study revisits and re-examines a second-degree autism screener for children at biological risk of autism, the Parent Observation Early Markers Scale (POEMS, Feldman et al., 2012). Using available follow-up information, 110 children (the original 108 infants plus 2 infants recruited after the completion of the original study) were divided into three groups: diagnosed group (n = 13), lost diagnosis group (n = 5), and undiagnosed group (n = 92). The POEMS continued to show acceptable predictive validity. The POEMS total scores and mean number of elevated items were significantly higher in the diagnosed group than the undiagnosed group. The lost diagnosis group did not differ from the undiagnosed group on POEMS total scores and elevated items at any age, but the lost diagnosis group had significantly lower total scores and number of elevated items than the diagnosed group starting at 18 months. Both ASD core and subsidiary behaviours differentiated the diagnosed and undiagnosed groups from 9−36 months of age. Using 70 as a cut-off score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) were .69, .84, and .38, respectively. The study provides further evidence that the POEMS may serve as a low-cost early screener for ASD in at risk children and pinpoint specific developmental and behavioural problems that may be amenable to very early intervention.