Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Monte Carlo study of the XY-model on quasi-periodic lattices

Monte Carlo Simulations were carried out using a nearest neighbour ferromagnetic XYmodel, on both 2-D and 3-D quasi-periodic lattices. In the case of 2-D, both the unfrustrated and frustrated XV-model were studied. For the unfrustrated 2-D XV-model, we have examined the magnetization, specific heat, linear susceptibility, helicity modulus and the derivative of the helicity modulus with respect to inverse temperature. The behaviour of all these quatities point to a Kosterlitz-Thouless transition occuring in temperature range Te == (1.0 -1.05) JlkB and with critical exponents that are consistent with previous results (obtained for crystalline lattices) . However, in the frustrated case, analysis of the spin glass susceptibility and EdwardsAnderson order parameter, in addition to the magnetization, specific heat and linear susceptibility, support a spin glass transition. In the case where the 'thin' rhombus is fully frustrated, a freezing transition occurs at Tf == 0.137 JlkB , which contradicts previous work suggesting the critical dimension of spin glasses to be de > 2 . In the 3-D systems, examination of the magnetization, specific heat and linear susceptibility reveal a conventional second order phase transition. Through a cumulant analysis and finite size scaling, a critical temperature of Te == (2.292 ± 0.003) JI kB and critical exponents of 0:' == 0.03 ± 0.03, f3 == 0.30 ± 0.01 and I == 1.31 ± 0.02 have been obtained.

Simultaneous extraction of order parameters and orientational distribution fuctions from 31[superscript]P NMR spectra of magnetically partially oriented phospholipid bilayers

Order parameter profiles extracted from the NMR spectra of model membranes are a valuable source of information about their structure and molecular motions. To al1alyze powder spectra the de-Pake-ing (numerical deconvolution) ~echnique can be used, but it assumes a random (spherical) dist.ribution of orientations in the sample. Multilamellar vesicles are known to deform and orient in the strong magnetic fields of NMR magnets, producing non-spherical orientation distributions. A recently developed technique for simultaneously extracting the anisotropies of the system as well as the orientation distributions is applied to the analysis of partially magnetically oriented 31p NMR spectra of phospholipids. A mixture of synthetic lipids, POPE and POPG, is analyzed to measure distortion of multilamellar vesicles in a magnetic field. In the analysis three models describing the shape of the distorted vesicles are examined. Ellipsoids of rotation with a semiaxis ratio of about 1.14 are found to provide a good approximation of the shape of the distorted vesicles. This is in reasonable agreement with published experimental work. All three models yield clearly non-spherical orientational distributions, as well as a precise measure of the anisotropy of the chemical shift. Noise in the experimental data prevented the analysis from concluding which of the three models is the best approximation. A discretization scheme for finding stability in the algorithm is outlined