Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.

The role of molecular, clinical and socioeconomic factors in the long-term survival of axillary node negative breast cancer patients

The overall objective of this study was to investigate factors associated with long-term survival in axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients. Clinical and biological factors included stage, histopathologic grade, p53 mutation, Her-2/neu amplification, estrogen receptor status (ER), progesterone receptor status (PR) and vascular invasion. Census derived socioeconomic (SES) indicators included median individual and household income, proportions of university educated individuals, housing type, "incidence" of low income and an indicator of living in an affluent neighbourhood. The effects of these measures on breast cancer-specific survival and competing cause survival were investigated. A cohort study examining survival among axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients in the greater Toronto area commenced in 1 989. Patients were followed up until death, lost-to-follow up or study termination in 2004. Data were collected from several sources measuring patient demographics, clinical factors, treatment, recurrence of disease and survival. Census level SES data were collected using census geo-coding of patient addresses' at the time of diagnosis. Additional survival data were acquired from the Ontario Cancer Registry to enhance and extend the observation period of the study. Survival patterns were examined using KaplanMeier and life table procedures. Associations were examined using log-rank and Wilcoxon tests of univariate significance. Multivariate survival analyses were perfonned using Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were stratified into less than and greater than 5 year survival periods to observe whether known markers of short-tenn survival were also associated with reductions in long-tenn survival among breast cancer patients. The 15 year survival probabilities in this cohort were: for breast cancerspecific survival 0.88, competing causes survival 0.89 and for overall survival 0.78. Estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status (Hazard Ratio (HR) ERIPR- versus ER+/PR+, 8.15,95% CI, 4.74, 14.00), p53 mutation (HR, 3.88, 95% CI, 2.00, 7.53) and Her-2 amplification (HR, 2.66, 95% CI, 1.36, 5.19) were associated with significant reductions in short-tenn breast cancer-specific survival «5 years following diagnosis), however, not with long-term survival in univariate analyses. Stage, histopathologic grade and ERiPR status were the clinicallbiologieal factors that were associated with short-term breast cancer specific survival in multivariate results. Living in an affluent neighbourhood (top quintile of median household income compared to the rest of the population) was associated with the largest significant increase in long-tenn breast cancer-specific survival after adjustment for stage, histopathologic grade and treatment (HR, 0.36, 95% CI, 0.12, 0.89).

Ecological interactions between zooplankton and photosynthetic bacteria in Crawford Lake, Ontario

The present study was carried out to test the hypothesis that photosynthetic bacteria contribute a large portion of the food of filter feeding zooplankton populations in Crawford Lake, Ontario. The temporal and spatial variations of both groups of organisms are strongly dependent on one another. 14 By using C-Iabelled photosynthetic bacteria. the ingestion and clearance rates of Daphnia pulex, ~. rosea, and Keratella spp were estimated during summer and fall of 1982. These quantitative estimations of zooplankton ingestion and clearence rates on photosynthetic bacteria comprised an original addition to the literature. Photosynthetic bacteria comprised a substantial portion of the diet of all four dominant zooplankton species. The evidence for this is based on the ingestion and clearance rates of the dominant zooplankton species. Ingestion rates of D. pulex and D. rosea ranged 5 5 -1 -1 - -- 5 - -- 5 from 8.3X10 -1 to 14.6XlO -1 cells.ind. hr and 8.1X10 to 13.9X10 cells.ind. hr • Their clearance rates ranged from 0.400 to 1.000 -1 -1 -1 -1 ml.ind. hr. and 0.380 to 0.930 ml.ind. hr • The ingestion and clearance -1 -1 -1 -1 rates of Keratella spp were 600 cell.ind. hr and 0.40 ul.ind. hr respectively. Clearance rates were inversely proportional to the concentration of food cells and directly proportional to the body size of the animals. It is believed that despite the very short reg~neration times of photosynthetic bacteria (3-8 hours) their population densities were controlled in part by the feeding rates of the dominant zooplankton in Crawford Lake. By considering the regeneration times of photosynthetic bacteria and the population clearance rates of zooplankton, it was estimated that between 16 to 52% and 11 to 35% of the PHotosynthetic bacteria were' consumed· by Daphnia· pulex. and Q.. rosea per day. The temporal and spatial distribution of Daphnia pulex, !.. rosea, Keratella quadrata, K. coChlearis and photosynthetic bacteria in Crawford Lake were also investigated during the period of October, 1981 to December, 1982. The photosynthetic bacteria in the lake, constituted a major food source for only those zooplankton Which tolerate anaerobic conditions. Changes in temperature and food appeared to correlate with the seasonal changes in zooplankton density. All four dominant species of zooplankton were abundant at the lake's surface (O-4m) during winter and spring and moved downwards with the thermocline as summer stratification proceeded. Photosynthetic bacteria formed a 2 m thick layer at the chemocline. The position of this photosynthetic bacterial J-ayer changed seasonally. In the summer, the bacterial plate moved upwards and following fall mixing it moved downwards. A vertical shift of O.8m (14.5 to 15.3m) was recorded during the period of June to December. The upper limit of the photosynthetic bacteria in the water column was controlled by dissolved oxygen, and sulfide concentrations While their lower limit was controlled by light intensity. A maximum bacterio- 1 chlorophyll concentration of 81 mg Bchl.l was recorded on August 9, 1981. The seasonal distribution of photosynthetic bacteria was controlledinpart' by ·theg.-"z1ai'_.Q;~.zoopl. ank:tCm;-.Qther -ciactors associated with zooplankton grazing were oxygen and sulfide concentrations.

Magnetic properties of the Biâ Srâ CaCuâ Oâ single crystal

The Bi2Sr2CaCu20g single crystal with a superconducting transition temperature equal to 90 ± 2 K was prepared. The irreversibility line of the single crystal for a mgnetic field direction along the c-axis and T* in the ab-plane was determined. The reduced temperature (l - T ) is proportional to H 1.1 for fields below 004 T and proportional to HO.09 for fields above 0.4 T. The zero temperature upper critical field Hc2(0) and coherence length ~ (0) were determined from the magnetization meaurements to be H-lC2=35.9T , H//C2=31.2T, ~c(0)=35.0 A, and ~ab(0)=32.5A,and from the magnetoresistance measurements to be H-lc2 = 134.6T , H//C2=55.5T '~c(0)=38.1 A, and ~ab(0)=2404 A for both directions of the applied magnetic field. The results obtained for Hc2(0) and ~(O) are not reliable due to the rounding that the single crystal exhibits in the magnetization and magnetoresistance curves. The magnetization relaxation of the single crystal was investigated, and was found to be logarithmic in time, and the relaxation rate increases with temperature up to 50 -60 K, then decreases at higher temperatures.

NMR studies of the exchange reactions of CH3CN.BX3 with excess CH3CN /|nJoseph Fogelman. -- 260 St. Catharines, Ont. : [s. n.],

Exchange reactions between molecular complexes and excess acid or base are well known and have been extensively surveyed in the literature(l). Since the exchange mechanism will, in some way involve the breaking of the labile donor-acceptor bond, it follows that a discussion of the factors relating to bonding in molecular complexes will be relevant. In general, a strong Lewis base and a strong Lewis acid form a stable adduct provided that certain stereochemical requirements are met. A strong Lewis base has the following characteristics (1),(2) (i) high electron density at the donor site. (ii) a non-bonded electron pair which has a low ionization potential (iii) electron donating substituents at the donor atom site. (iv) facile approach of the site of the Lewis base to the acceptor site as dictated by the steric hindrance of the substituents. Examples of typical Lewis bases are ethers, nitriles, ketones, alcohols, amines and phosphines. For a strong Lewis acid, the following properties are important:( i) low electron density at the acceptor site. (ii) electron withdrawing substituents. (iii) substituents which do not interfere with the close approach of the Lewis base. (iv) availability of a vacant orbital capable of accepting the lone electron pair of the donor atom. Examples of Lewis acids are the group III and IV halides such (M=B, AI, Ga, In) and MX4 - (M=Si, Ge, Sn, Pb). The relative bond strengths of molecular complexes have been investigated by:- (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v] (vi) dipole moment measurements (3). shifts of the carbonyl peaks in the IIIR. (4) ,(5), (6) .. NMR chemical shift data (4),(7),(8),(9). D.V. and visible spectrophotometric shifts (10),(11). equilibrium constant data (12), (13). heats of dissociation and heats of reactions (l~), (16), (17), (18), (19). Many experiments have bben carried out on boron trihalides in order to determine their relative acid strengths. Using pyridine, nitrobenzene, acetonitrile and trimethylamine as reference Lewis bases, it was found that the acid strength varied in order:RBx3 > BC1 3 >BF 3 • For the acetonitrile-boron trihalide and trimethylamine boron trihalide complexes in nitrobenzene, an-NMR study (7) showed that the shift to lower field was. greatest for the BB~3 adduct ~n~ smallest for the BF 3 which is in agreement with the acid strengths. If electronegativities of the substituents were the only important effect, and since c~ Br ,one would expect the electron density at the boron nucleus to vary as BF3proportional to the amount of charge transferred, i.e. to the nature of the base, and they have rejected the earlier concept of reorganization energy in explaining the formation of the adduct bond (19).

Proton translocation by cytochrome c oxidase reconstituted into proteoliposomes

Cytochrome c oxidase .inserted into proteoliposomes translocates protons with a stoichiometry of approx-, imately 0.4-0.6 H+/e- in the presence of valinomycin plus pottasium. The existance .ofsuchproton translocation is .supportedby experiments with lauryl maltoside which abolished the pulses but~~d not inhibit cyt. c binding .or oxidase turnover. Pulses with K3FeCN6 did not induce acidification further supporting vectorial proton transport by cyt ..aa3 . Upon lowering the ionic strength and pulsing with ferrocytochrome c, H+/eratios increased. This increase is attributed to scaler proton release consequent upon cyt.c-phospholipid binding. Oxygen pulses at low ionic strength however did not exhibit this large scaler increase in H+/e- ratios.A-small increase was observed upon .02 pul'sing at·low ionic strengt.h. This increase was KeN and, ,pcep sensitive and thus possibly due to a redox linked scaler deprotonation. Increases in the H+/e- ratio also occurred ifp~lses ,were performed in the presence of nonactin rather.than valinomycin. The fluorescent pH indicator pyranine was internally trapped inaa3 conta~ning "proteoliposomes. Internal alkalinization, as mon,itored by pyranine fluorescence leads to a of approx.imately 0.35 units, which is proportional to electron flux. This internal alkalinization was also DCCD sensitive, being inhibited by approximately 50%. This 50% inhibition of internal alkalinization supports the existance of vectorial proton transport.

The effects of static and diurnally-cycling temperature acclimations on thermal tolerances of rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri

:ofiedian lethal temperatures ( LT50' s ) were determined for rainbow trout, Salmo gairdnerii, acclimated for a minimum of 21 days at 5 c onstant temperatures between 4 and 20 0 C. and 2 diel temperature fluctuations ( sinewave curves of amplitudes ± 4 and ± 7 0 C. about a mean temperature of 12 0 C. ) . Twenty-four-, 48-, and 96-hour LT50 estimates were c alculated f ollowing standard flow-through aquatic bioassay techniques and probi t transformation of mortality data. The phenomenon of delayed thermal mortality was also investigated. Shifts in upper incipient lethal temperature occurred as a result of previous thermal conditioning. It was shown that increases in constant acclimation temperature result in proportional l inear increases in thermal tolerances. The increase i n estimated 96-hour LT50's was approximately 0.13 0 c. X 1 0 C:1 between 8 and 20 0 C. The effect of acclimation to both cyclic temperature regimes was an increase in LT50 to values between the mean and maximum constant equivalent daily temperatures of the cycles. Twenty-four-, 48-, and 96-hour LT50 estimates of both cycles corresponded approximately to the LT50 values of the 16 0 C. c onstant temperature equivalent . This increase i n thermal tolerance was further demonstrated by the delayed thermal mortality experiments . Cycle amplitudes appeared to i nfluence thermal resistance through alterations in initi al mortality since mortality patterns characteristic of base temperature acclimations re-appeared after approximately 68 hours exposure to test temperatures for the 12 + 4 0 C. group, whereas mortality patterns stabilized and remained constant for a period greater than 192 hours with the larger therma l cycle ( 12 + 7 0 C. ). NO s ignificant corre lations between s pecimen weight and time-to-death was apparent. Data are discussed in relation to the establishment of thermal criteria for important commercial and sport fishes , such as the salmonids , as is the question whether previously reported values on lethal temperature s may have been under estimated.

The finite bandwidth model for spin fluctuations in Pd

The frequency dependence of the electron-spin fluctuation spectrum, P(Q), is calculated in the finite bandwidth model. We find that for Pd, which has a nearly full d-band, the magnitude, the range, and the peak frequency of P(Q) are greatly reduced from those in the standard spin fluctuation theory. The electron self-energy due to spin fluctuations is calculated within the finite bandwidth model. Vertex corrections are examined, and we find that Migdal's theorem is valid for spin fluctuations in the nearly full band. The conductance of a normal metal-insulator-normal metal tunnel junction is examined when spin fluctuations are present in one electrode. We find that for the nearly full band, the momentum independent self-energy due to spin fluctuations enters the expression for the tunneling conductance with approximately the same weight as the self-energy due to phonons. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance is slight within the finite bandwidth model for Pd. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance of a metal with a less full d-band than Pd may be more pronounced. However, in this case the tunneling conductance is not simply proportional to the self-energy.

Frequency-dependent selection at the amylase locus in Drosophila melanogaster

A. strain of Drosophila melanog-aster deficient in null amylase activity (Amylase ) was isolated from a wild null population of flies. The survivorship of Amylase homozygous flies is very low when the principal dietary carbohydrate source is starch. However, the survivorship of the null Amylase genotype is comparable to the wild type when the dietary starch is replaced by glucose. In addition, the null viability of the amylase-producing and Amylase strains is comparable v and very lm<] f on a medium with no carbohydrates . Furthermore, amylase-producing genotypes were shovm to excrete enzymatically active amylase protein into the food medium. The excreted amylase causes the external breakdown of dietary starch to sugar. These results led to the following null prediction: the viability of the A.mvlase genotype (fed on a starch rich diet) might increase in the presence of individuals which were amylase-producing. It was shown experimentally that such an increase in viability did in fact occur and that this increase v\Tas proportional to the number of mnylase..::producing fli.es present. These results provide a unique example of a non-"competi ti ve inter-genotype interaction, and one where the underlying physio~ logical and biochemical mechanism has been fully understood.

Comparison of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference vs. triglyceride levels and waist circumference in predicting coronary heart disease risk

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.

THE INFLUENCE OF LENGTH CHANGE SPEED AND DIRECTION ON DYNAMIC FUNCTION POTENTIATION IN FAST MOUSE MUSCLE

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the potentiation of dynamic function was dependent upon both length change speed and direction. Mouse EDL was cycled in vitro (25º C) about optimal length (Lo) with constant peak strain (± 2.5% Lo) at 1.5, 3.3 and 6.9 Hz before and after a conditioning stimulus. A single pulse was applied during shortening or lengthening and peak dynamic (concentric or eccentric) forces were assessed at Lo. Stimulation increased peak concentric force at all frequencies (range: 19 ± 1 to 30 ± 2%) but this increase was proportional to shortening speed, as were the related changes to concentric work/power (range: -15 ± 1 to 39 ± 1 %). In contrast, stimulation did not increase eccentric force, work or power at any frequency. Thus, results reveal a unique hysteresis like effect for the potentiation of dynamic output wherein concentric and eccentric forces increase and decrease, respectively, with work cycle frequency.

Academic advising, eh : a profile of undergraduate academic advising at Ontario universities

Despite its importance to postsecondary students' success, there is little known about academic advisement in Canada. Academic advising can be a very intensive and demanding job, yet it is not well understood what duties or student populations of advising make it so. On a practical level, this study sought to learn more about academic advisement in Ontario universities and provide a general overview of who advisors are and what they do. This study also investigated academic advising duties and time allocation for these responsibilities in an attempt to relate theory to practice incorporating Vilfredo Pareto's theoretical underpinnings to confirm or negate the applicability of the Pareto Principle in relationship to time utilization by advisors. Essentially this study sought to discover which students require the greatest advisement time and effort, and how advisors could apply these findings to their work. Academic advising professionals in Ontario universities were asked to complete a researcher-designed electronic survey. Quantitative data from the responses were analyzed to describe generalized features of academic advising at Ontario universities. Discussion and implications for practice will prompt advisors and institutions using the results of this study to measure themselves against a provincial assessment. Advisors' awareness of time allocation to different student groups can help focus attention where new strategies are needed to maximize time and efforts. This study found that caseload and time spent with student populations were proportional. Regular undergraduate students accounted for the greatest amount of caseload and time followed by working with students struggling academically. This study highlights the need for further evaluation, education, and research in academic advising in Canadian higher education.

THE INFLUENCE OF LENGTH CHANGE SPEED AND DIRECTION ON DYNAMIC FUNCTION POTENTIATION IN FAST MOUSE MUSCLE

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the potentiation of dynamic function was dependent upon both length change speed and direction. Mouse EDL was cycled in vitro (250 C) about optimal length (Lo) with constant peak strain (± 2.5% Lo) at 1.5,3.3 and 6.9 Hz before and after a conditioning stimulus. A single pulse was applied during shortening or lengthening and peak dynamic (concentric or eccentric) forces were assessed at Lo. Stimulation increased peak concentric force at all frequencies (range: 19±1 to 30 ± 2%) but this increase was proportional to shortening speed, as were the related changes to concentric work/power (range: -15 ± 1 to 39 ± 1 %). In contrast, stimulation did not increase eccentric force, work or power at any frequency. Thus, results reveal a unique hysteresis like effect for the potentiation of dynamic output wherein concentric and eccentric forces increase and decrease, respectively, with work cycle frequency.

Phonon spectra and temperature variation of thermodynamic properties of fcc metals via Finnis-Sinclair type many body potentials: Sutton-Chen and improved Sutton-Chen models

Volume(density)-independent pair-potentials cannot describe metallic cohesion adequately as the presence of the free electron gas renders the total energy strongly dependent on the electron density. The embedded atom method (EAM) addresses this issue by replacing part of the total energy with an explicitly density-dependent term called the embedding function. Finnis and Sinclair proposed a model where the embedding function is taken to be proportional to the square root of the electron density. Models of this type are known as Finnis-Sinclair many body potentials. In this work we study a particular parametrization of the Finnis-Sinclair type potential, called the "Sutton-Chen" model, and a later version, called the "Quantum Sutton-Chen" model, to study the phonon spectra and the temperature variation thermodynamic properties of fcc metals. Both models give poor results for thermal expansion, which can be traced to rapid softening of transverse phonon frequencies with increasing lattice parameter. We identify the power law decay of the electron density with distance assumed by the model as the main cause of this behaviour and show that an exponentially decaying form of charge density improves the results significantly. Results for Sutton-Chen and our improved version of Sutton-Chen models are compared for four fcc metals: Cu, Ag, Au and Pt. The calculated properties are the phonon spectra, thermal expansion coefficient, isobaric heat capacity, adiabatic and isothermal bulk moduli, atomic root-mean-square displacement and Gr\"{u}neisen parameter. For the sake of comparison we have also considered two other models where the distance-dependence of the charge density is an exponential multiplied by polynomials. None of these models exhibits the instability against thermal expansion (premature melting) as shown by the Sutton-Chen model. We also present results obtained via pure pair potential models, in order to identify advantages and disadvantages of methods used to obtain the parameters of these potentials.