Predicting performance on fluid intelligence from speed of processing, working memory, and controlled attention

Fluid inteliigence has been defined as an innate ability to reason which is measured commonly by the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM). Individual differences in fluid intelligence are currently explained by the Cascade model (Fry & Hale, 1996) and the Controlled Attention hypothesis (Engle, Kane, & Tuholski, 1999; Kane & Engle, 2002). The first theory is based on a complex relation among age, speed, and working memory which is described as a Cascade. The alternative to this theory, the Controlled Attention hypothesis, is based on the proposition that it is the executive attention component of working memory that explains performance on fluid intelligence tests. The first goal of this study was to examine whether the Cascade model is consistent within the visuo-spatial and verbal-numerical modalities. The second goal was to examine whether the executive attention component ofworking memory accounts for the relation between working memory and fluid intelligence. Two hundred and six undergraduate students between the ages of 18 and 28 completed a battery of cognitive tests selected to measure processing speed, working memory, and controlled attention which were selected from two cognitive modalities, verbalnumerical and visuo-spatial. These were used to predict performance on two standard measures of fluid intelligence: the Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) and the Shipley Institute of Living Scales (SILS) subtests. Multiple regression and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were used to test the Cascade model and to determine the independent and joint effects of controlled attention and working memory on general fluid intelligence. Among the processing speed measures only spatial scan was related to the RPM. No other significant relations were observed between processing speed and fluid intelligence. As 1 a construct, working memory was related to the fluid intelligence tests. Consistent with the predictions for the RPM there was support for the Cascade model within the visuo-spatial modality but not within the verbal-numerical modality. There was no support for the Cascade model with respect to the SILS tests. SEM revealed that there was a direct path between controlled attention and RPM and between working memory and RPM. However, a significant path between set switching and RPM explained the relation between controlled attention and RPM. The prediction that controlled attention mediated the relation between working memory and RPM was therefore not supported. The findings support the view that the Cascade model may not adequately explain individual differences in fluid intelligence and this may be due to the differential relations observed between working memory and fluid intelligence across different modalities. The findings also show that working memory is not a domain-general construct and as a result its relation with fluid intelligence may be dependent on the nature of the working memory modality.

Information processing in sleep-onset insomnia : a test of the neurocognitive model /

The present thesis study is a systematic investigation of information processing at sleep onset, using auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) as a test of the neurocognitive model of insomnia. Insomnia is an extremely prevalent disorder in society resulting in problems with daytime functioning (e.g., memory, concentration, job performance, mood, job and driving safety). Various models have been put forth in an effort to better understand the etiology and pathophysiology of this disorder. One of the newer models, the neurocognitive model of insomnia, suggests that chronic insomnia occurs through conditioned central nervous system arousal. This arousal is reflected through increased information processing which may interfere with sleep initiation or maintenance. The present thesis employed event-related potentials as a direct method to test information processing during the sleep-onset period. Thirteen poor sleepers with sleep-onset insomnia and 1 2 good sleepers participated in the present study. All poor sleepers met the diagnostic criteria for psychophysiological insomnia and had a complaint of problems with sleep initiation. All good sleepers reported no trouble sleeping and no excessive daytime sleepiness. Good and poor sleepers spent two nights at the Brock University Sleep Research Laboratory. The first night was used to screen for sleep disorders; the second night was used to investigate information processing during the sleep-onset period. Both groups underwent a repeated sleep-onsets task during which an auditory oddball paradigm was delivered. Participants signalled detection of a higher pitch target tone with a button press as they fell asleep. In addition, waking alert ERPs were recorded 1 hour before and after sleep on both Nights 1 and 2.As predicted by the neurocognitive model of insomnia, increased CNS activity was found in the poor sleepers; this was reflected by their smaller amplitude P2 component seen during wake of the sleep-onset period. Unlike the P2 component, the Nl, N350, and P300 did not vary between the groups. The smaller P2 seen in our poor sleepers indicates that they have a deficit in the sleep initiation processes. Specifically, poor sleepers do not disengage their attention from the outside environment to the same extent as good sleepers during the sleep-onset period. The lack of findings for the N350 suggest that this sleep component may be intact in those with insomnia and that it is the waking components (i.e., Nl, P2) that may be leading to the deficit in sleep initiation. Further, it may be that the mechanism responsible for the disruption of sleep initiation in the poor sleepers is most reflected by the P2 component. Future research investigating ERPs in insomnia should focus on the identification of the components most sensitive to sleep disruption. As well, methods should be developed in order to more clearly identify the various types of insomnia populations in research contexts (e.g., psychophysiological vs. sleep-state misperception) and the various individual (personality characteristics, motivation) and environmental factors (arousal-related variables) that influence particular ERP components. Insomnia has serious consequences for health, safety, and daytime functioning, thus research efforts should continue in order to help alleviate this highly prevalent condition.

A social-cognitive model of monitoring and its relationship to behaviour in a naturalistic observation : development and individual differences

years 8 months) and 24 older (M == 7 years 4 months) children. A Monitoring Process Model (MPM) was developed and tested in order to ascertain at which component process ofthe MPM age differences would emerge. The MPM had four components: (1) assessment; (2) evaluation; (3) planning; and (4) behavioural control. The MPM was assessed directly using a referential communication task in which the children were asked to make a series of five Lego buildings (a baseline condition and one building for each MPM component). Children listened to instructions from one experimenter while a second experimenter in the room (a confederate) intetjected varying levels ofverbal feedback in order to assist the children and control the component ofthe MPM. This design allowed us to determine at which "stage" ofprocessing children would most likely have difficulty monitoring themselves in this social-cognitive task. Developmental differences were obselVed for the evaluation, planning and behavioural control components suggesting that older children were able to be more successful with the more explicit metacomponents. Interestingly, however, there was no age difference in terms ofLego task success in the baseline condition suggesting that without the intelVention ofthe confederate younger children monitored the task about as well as older children. This pattern ofresults indicates that the younger children were disrupted by the feedback rather than helped. On the other hand, the older children were able to incorporate the feedback offered by the confederate into a plan ofaction. Another aim ofthis study was to assess similar processing components to those investigated by the MPM Lego task in a more naturalistic observation. Together the use ofthe Lego Task ( a social cognitive task) and the naturalistic social interaction allowed for the appraisal of cross-domain continuities and discontinuities in monitoring behaviours. In this vein, analyses were undertaken in order to ascertain whether or not successful performance in the MPM Lego Task would predict cross-domain competence in the more naturalistic social interchange. Indeed, success in the two latter components ofthe MPM (planning and behavioural control) was related to overall competence in the naturalistic task. However, this cross-domain prediction was not evident for all levels ofthe naturalistic interchange suggesting that the nature ofthe feedback a child receives is an important determinant ofresponse competency. Individual difference measures reflecting the children's general cognitive capacity (Working Memory and Digit Span) and verbal ability (vocabulary) were also taken in an effort to account for more variance in the prediction oftask success. However, these individual difference measures did not serve to enhance the prediction oftask performance in either the Lego Task or the naturalistic task. Similarly, parental responses to questionnaires pertaining to their child's temperament and social experience also failed to increase prediction oftask performance. On-line measures ofthe children's engagement, positive affect and anxiety also failed to predict competence ratings.

Mediating Influence of Physical Fitness on the Relationship between Academic Performance and Motor Proficiency

We explored the potential mediating influence of physical fitness on the relationship between academic performance and motor proficiency in children. 1864 students (F:926, M:938, age 11.91 (SD:0.34). Academic achievement was derived from an average of standardized tests of reading, writing, and math. The Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Performance (short-form) determined motor proficiency. Fitness (peak oxygen uptake) was established with the Léger 20-m Shuttle Run Test. OLS regression identified several significant predictors of academic performance. After controlling for age (p=0.0135), gender (p<0.0001), and parental education (p<0.0001), motor proficiency (p<0.0001), was significant. After adding physical fitness (p=0.0030) to the model the effect of motor proficiency remained significant however the point estimate was reduced from 0.0034 (p<0.0001) to 0.0026 (p<0.0001). These results suggest that physical fitness plays a mediating role on the relationship between academic performance and motor proficiency although both aerobic fitness and motor proficiency have independent roles.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Can Ontario Be the Next Finland? Assessing Whether the Finnish Model Can Meet the Educational Needs of Ontario, Canada

This study examines the adaptability of the Finland model to meet the educational disparities currently observed in the education system in Ontario, Canada. A literature review and a database highlight key characteristics of the Finland model. From this information, Finland and Ontario’s systems are found to be similar in the areas of systemic structure and educational philosophies, and international testing and performance standards. The systems are found to be different in the areas of geography and demographics, social perceptions and attitudes towards education, school system structure, teaching philosophies, teacher education and professional status, and standardized and high-stakes testing. Discussion regarding use of Finnish philosophies to meet Ontario’s needs in the following areas takes place: social perceptions and attitudes towards education, our teaching philosophies, our teacher education and professional status, and our use of high-stakes and standardized testing. Opportunities for future research are also discussed and the major research paper includes a workshop and survey.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

Improving Performance of Open Access Clinics

Open Access Scheduling has shown great promise in allowing health care practices to provide same-day access, and to match patients with their regular physicians. However, similarly to traditional clinics where appointments are pre-booked, open access clinics are also frustrated with long waits, long idle time and long overtime due to uncertainties such as patient no-shows, variable service time and variable daily demand. These aspects have not been studied previously in an open access setting. This study investigates different management options to improve clinical performance in terms of patient waiting time, doctor idle time and clinic overtime. Other factors studied with a simulation model include client load and placement of pre-booked slots. Results show that a proper panel size is critical to obtain good performance for open access clinics, and that good choices for management options depend on the client load.

Effect of executive compensation on firm performance

The paper finds evidence that the equity-based CEO pay is positively related to firm performance and risk-taking. Both stock price and operating performance as well as firm's riskiness increase in the pay-performance sensitivities (PPS) provided by CEO stock options and stock holdings. PPS can explain stock returns better as an additional factor to the Fama-French 3-factor model. When CEOs are compensated with higher PPS, firms experience higher return on asset (ROA). The higher PPS also leads to the higher risk-taking. While CEO incentive compensation has been perceived mixed on its effectiveness, this study provides support to the equity-based CEO compensation in reducing agency conflicts between CEOs and shareholders.

Drivers of Local Firms’ Focus on Internal R&D in Emerging Economies and Their International Performance

Grounded on the resource-based view of the firm, the study of this thesis investigates the effect of four internal and external factors – engineer intensity, location, affiliation with the government, government funding – on Chinese firms’ decision to either invest in internal R&D activities or external R&D and the effect of this decision on the firms’ international market success. In addition, the moderating role of the presence of foreign firms in China is examined. To understand these relationships, the thesis’ theorization focuses on the issue of how firms can combine optimally the two options – “internal R&D” and “external R&D”. In this regard I juxtapose internal R&D and external R&D and compare their advantages and disadvantages. To test my model, I apply panel data from the Annual Industrial Survey Database provided by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. My results show that three of the four investigated factors affect Chinese firms’ resource allocation decisions; and effective resource allocation decisions lead effectively to international market success, strengthened by the presence of foreign firms in China. Moreover the findings bear several theoretical and managerial contributions. First I propose the last dimension of the “VRIO framework” – “organization” – as an endogenous component of the VRIO framework, as my study investigated how firms can effectively combine resources to generate a competitive advantage in terms of international market success. Previous academic literature so far focused on examining whether internal and external R&D are complements or substitutes. My study fills a gap in the literature by investigating the determinants of the efficient combination of the two strategies and the outcome of the combination. One of the managerial implications is that Chinese firms can learn from foreign companies that are present in China.