Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Effect of iron on reactivity of vanillin in wine models /

Phenolic compounds are important components of grapes and wines. They have been found to have important roles in grape and wine systems and properties that are beneficial for human health. Vanillin (3-methoxy-4-hydroxybenzaldehyde) is a phenolic compound coming from the oxidative degradation of lignin in oak-barrels during the aging of wine. Vanillin is an important flavour component of wine and its concentration in wine influences significantly the aroma and flavour of wine. The concentration of vanillin in wine is affected by various factors including the presence of metal ions. In this work, by using HPLC, HPLC-MS, and MS technologies, iron (III) cations were found to affect the oxidation of vanillin in a model system of wine, and the product of the oxidation was identified as divanillin. The mechanism of the redox reaction between vanillin and Fe^"^ is thought to follow that of other phenol oxidations. Increasing the concentration of Fe ^ in the model system accelerates divanillin production. The best pH condition for the divanillin production in the system is the range of 3.0 ~ 3.5. Increasing temperature from 20°C to 40°C accelerates the divanillin production. Divanillin was found to exist in three commercial red wines in this work. Keeping the storage temperature cool and decreasing the contact of grapes and wines with iron are two major measures suggested by this work in order to decrease the oxidation of vanillin during the making and aging of wine.

Systematic studies of the effect of pressure on magnetic and electronic properties of La2/3Ca1/3MnO3 thin films with various thicknesses /

Interest in mixed-valent perovskite manganese oxides of La\-xAxMnO^ (v4-divalent alkaline earth Ca, Sr or Ba), whose unusual properties were discovered nearly a half century ago, has recently been revived. The discovery of the colossal magnetoresistance and pressure effects introduced new questions concerning the complex interplay between lattice structure, magnetism and transport in doped perovskite manganites. In this study, we report our experimental investigations of pressure and magnetic field dependencies of La-i/sCai/sMnOs (LCMO) epitaxial films with various thickness on SrTiO$ substrate. An analysis of film thickness dependency of the resistivity of LCMO epitaxial films under pressure and magnetic field has been performed by taking into account substrate contributions. This verifies the correlation of lattice distortion with magnetic and transport properties. Strong dependencies of Mn — O — Mn bond bending and Mn — O bond stretching with pressure as well as Mn spin alignment with magnetic field, and the lattice distortion induced by the substrate are discussed.

Studies of some cocondensations of nickel atoms with unsaturated organic ligands and with mixed ligand systems

The cocondensation of nickel with a number of unsaturated ligands was studied, as was the cocondensation with a number of mixed ligand systems. Enamines were found not to react with nickel while acrylonitrile was polymerized. In the mixed ligand syst.ems different products were obtained than when the ligands were cocondensed individually. Cocondensations of benzyl halide/allyl halide mixtures gave unstable products that were not observed when the halides were cocondensed individually. The effect of Kao-Wool insulation on nickel/benzyl halide cocondensations was found to be significant. Kao-Wool caused the bulk of the benzyl halide to be polymeri zed to a number of poly-benzylic species. An alkali metal reactor was designed for the evaporation of sodium and potassium atoms into cold solutions of metal halide and an or ganic substrate. This apparatus was used to synthesize Ni(P¢3 )3' but proved unsuccessful for synthesizing a nickel-enamine compound.

The effect of diet and parasite load on female phonotaxis in the Texas field cricket, Gryllus integer

Female crickets respond selectively to variations in species-specific male calling songs. This selectivity has been shown to be age-dependent; older females are less choosy. However, female quality should also affect female selectivity. The effect of female quality on mate choice was examined in Gryllus integer by comparing the phonotactic responses of females on different diets and with different parasite loads to various synthetic models of conspecific calling song. Test females were virgin, 11-14 days old, and had been maintained on one of five diets varying in protein and fat content. Phonotaxis was quantified using a non-compensating Kugel treadmill which generates vector scores incorporating the speed and direction of movement of each female. Test females were presented with four calling song models which differed in pulse rate, but were still within the natural range of the species for the experimental temperature. After testing, females were dissected and the number of gregarine parasites within the digestive tract counted. There were no significant effects of either diet or parasitism on female motivation to mate although the combined effects of these variables seem to have an effect with no apparent trend. Control females did not discriminate among song types, but there was a trend of female preferences for lower pulse rates which are closest to the mean pulse rate for the species. Heavily parasitized females did not discriminate among pulse rates altho~gh there was a similar trend of high vector scores for low pulse rates. Diet, however, affected selectivity with poorly-fed females showing significantly high vector scores for pulse rates near the species mean. Such findings raise interesting questions about energy allocation and costs and risks of phonotaxis and mate choice in acoustic Orthoptera. These results are discussed in terms of sexual selection and female mate choice.

Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms might be destroying your intimacy : a test of mediational models in a community sample of couples

The present research focused on the pathways through which the symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may negatively impact intimacy. Previous research has confirmed a link between self-reported PTSD symptoms and intimacy; however, a thorough examination of mediating paths, partner effects, and secondary traumatization has not yet been realized. With a sample of 297 heterosexual couples, intraindividual and dyadic models were developed to explain the relationships between PTSD symptoms and intimacy in the context of interdependence theory, attachment theory, and models of selfpreservation (e.g., fight-or-flight). The current study replicated the findings of others and has supported a process in which affective (alexithymia, negative affect, positive affect) and communication (demand-withdraw behaviour, self-concealment, and constructive communication) pathways mediate the intraindividual and dyadic relationships between PTSD symptoms and intimacy. Moreover, it also found that the PTSD symptoms of each partner were significantly related; however, this was only the case for those dyads in which the partners had disclosed most everything about their traumatic experiences. As such, secondary traumatization was supported. Finally, although the overall pattern of results suggest a total negative effect of PTSD symptoms on intimacy, a sex difference was evident such that the direct effect of the woman's PTSD symptoms were positively associated with both her and her partner's intimacy. I t is possible that the Tend-andBefriend model of threat response, wherein women are said to foster social bonds in the face of distress, may account for this sex difference. Overall, however, it is clear that PTSD symptoms were negatively associated with relationship quality and attention to this impact in the development of diagnostic criteria and treatment protocols is necessary.

Extending the irrelevant sound effect beyond serial recall

The finding that serial recall perfonnance for visually presented items is impaired by concurrently presented speech or sounds is referred to as the irrelevant sound effect (lSE). The foremost explanation for the effect is based on interference with rehearsal and seriation processes. The present series of experiments demonstrates tha t neither rehearsal nor seriation processes is necessary to observe the ISE. Evidence comes from three experiments that a) allow participants to report to-be-remembered items in any order, b) eliminate rehearsal by engaging participants in a cover task and surprising them with a memory test, and c) show that surprise non-serial recognition is immune to rehearsal-based experimental manipulations that modulate the ISE in more typical serial recall tasks. Together,the results show that models that rely on rehearsal or seriation processes to account for the ISE need to be reconsidered. Results are discussed in tenns of interference with encoding of to-be-remembered material.

A Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm with Side Effect Machines for Motif Discovery

Understanding the machinery of gene regulation to control gene expression has been one of the main focuses of bioinformaticians for years. We use a multi-objective genetic algorithm to evolve a specialized version of side effect machines for degenerate motif discovery. We compare some suggested objectives for the motifs they find, test different multi-objective scoring schemes and probabilistic models for the background sequence models and report our results on a synthetic dataset and some biological benchmarking suites. We conclude with a comparison of our algorithm with some widely used motif discovery algorithms in the literature and suggest future directions for research in this area.

Mobile Books: Effect of Engagement on Students’ Motivation and Cognitive Strategy Use

This mixed methods research explores the role of reading engagement in 30 grade 1 students’ motivation to read mobile electronic storybooks (eBooks) and cognitive strategies used during eBook reading. Data collection comprised motivation and parent questionnaires, behavioural observation checklists, cognitive strategies rubric, and teacher interviews. Students’ emotional engagement with and enjoyment of mobile eBooks corresponded to 4 motivational aspects of intrinsic motivation: curiosity, control, choice, and challenge. Post-intervention results indicated that most student participants enjoyed answering eBook comprehension questions and preferred eBooks to print books; by the end of the study, all had access to a mobile device at home. A majority of participants were actively engaged during mobile eBook reading sessions and persisted in answering embedded eBook comprehension questions, which together reflected students’ behavioural engagement and time-on-task during mobile reading. Students’ off-task behaviours related to iPads’ accessibility features and inherent reader-friendliness. All participants successfully answered evaluative questions requiring them to activate prior knowledge, and experienced higher levels of difficulty with making personal connections. The study highlights the importance of making school-based literacy practices relevant to students’ outside worlds, and discusses implications for teacher educators, administrators, curriculum developers, and eBook and other digital developers concerning the need for greater collaboration in order to more closely align technology resources with national curriculum expectations.

Effect of executive compensation on firm performance

The paper finds evidence that the equity-based CEO pay is positively related to firm performance and risk-taking. Both stock price and operating performance as well as firm's riskiness increase in the pay-performance sensitivities (PPS) provided by CEO stock options and stock holdings. PPS can explain stock returns better as an additional factor to the Fama-French 3-factor model. When CEOs are compensated with higher PPS, firms experience higher return on asset (ROA). The higher PPS also leads to the higher risk-taking. While CEO incentive compensation has been perceived mixed on its effectiveness, this study provides support to the equity-based CEO compensation in reducing agency conflicts between CEOs and shareholders.