Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.

Comparison of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference vs. triglyceride levels and waist circumference in predicting coronary heart disease risk

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.

The role of molecular, clinical and socioeconomic factors in the long-term survival of axillary node negative breast cancer patients

The overall objective of this study was to investigate factors associated with long-term survival in axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients. Clinical and biological factors included stage, histopathologic grade, p53 mutation, Her-2/neu amplification, estrogen receptor status (ER), progesterone receptor status (PR) and vascular invasion. Census derived socioeconomic (SES) indicators included median individual and household income, proportions of university educated individuals, housing type, "incidence" of low income and an indicator of living in an affluent neighbourhood. The effects of these measures on breast cancer-specific survival and competing cause survival were investigated. A cohort study examining survival among axillary node negative (ANN) breast cancer patients in the greater Toronto area commenced in 1 989. Patients were followed up until death, lost-to-follow up or study termination in 2004. Data were collected from several sources measuring patient demographics, clinical factors, treatment, recurrence of disease and survival. Census level SES data were collected using census geo-coding of patient addresses' at the time of diagnosis. Additional survival data were acquired from the Ontario Cancer Registry to enhance and extend the observation period of the study. Survival patterns were examined using KaplanMeier and life table procedures. Associations were examined using log-rank and Wilcoxon tests of univariate significance. Multivariate survival analyses were perfonned using Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were stratified into less than and greater than 5 year survival periods to observe whether known markers of short-tenn survival were also associated with reductions in long-tenn survival among breast cancer patients. The 15 year survival probabilities in this cohort were: for breast cancerspecific survival 0.88, competing causes survival 0.89 and for overall survival 0.78. Estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status (Hazard Ratio (HR) ERIPR- versus ER+/PR+, 8.15,95% CI, 4.74, 14.00), p53 mutation (HR, 3.88, 95% CI, 2.00, 7.53) and Her-2 amplification (HR, 2.66, 95% CI, 1.36, 5.19) were associated with significant reductions in short-tenn breast cancer-specific survival «5 years following diagnosis), however, not with long-term survival in univariate analyses. Stage, histopathologic grade and ERiPR status were the clinicallbiologieal factors that were associated with short-term breast cancer specific survival in multivariate results. Living in an affluent neighbourhood (top quintile of median household income compared to the rest of the population) was associated with the largest significant increase in long-tenn breast cancer-specific survival after adjustment for stage, histopathologic grade and treatment (HR, 0.36, 95% CI, 0.12, 0.89).

The finite bandwidth model for spin fluctuations in Pd

The frequency dependence of the electron-spin fluctuation spectrum, P(Q), is calculated in the finite bandwidth model. We find that for Pd, which has a nearly full d-band, the magnitude, the range, and the peak frequency of P(Q) are greatly reduced from those in the standard spin fluctuation theory. The electron self-energy due to spin fluctuations is calculated within the finite bandwidth model. Vertex corrections are examined, and we find that Migdal's theorem is valid for spin fluctuations in the nearly full band. The conductance of a normal metal-insulator-normal metal tunnel junction is examined when spin fluctuations are present in one electrode. We find that for the nearly full band, the momentum independent self-energy due to spin fluctuations enters the expression for the tunneling conductance with approximately the same weight as the self-energy due to phonons. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance is slight within the finite bandwidth model for Pd. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance of a metal with a less full d-band than Pd may be more pronounced. However, in this case the tunneling conductance is not simply proportional to the self-energy.

Analyzing the learning of the taking personal and social responsibility model within a new physical education undergraduate degree program in El Salvador

EI Salvador presents an unfortunate history that includes a military regime and a civil war that together created a legacy of violence in which the country still struggle nowadays. Salud Escolar Integral (SEI) was created in 2005 as a program to combat youth violence throughout the re-formulation of physical education (PE) classes in public schools, promoting life skills learning that supports the resolution of conflicts with nonviolent ways. In 2007, SEI supported the creation of a physical e~ucation teacher education (PETE) degree at the Universidad Pedag6gica de EI Salvador (UPES), having the goal to assist pre-service teachers with a better understanding of humanistic principles. The present research analyzed if after attending all three years ofUPES PETE program, students presented high self-perception levels of competence and confidence related to attitude, skills and knowledge to teach PE within humanistic principles. Taking Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) was the theoretical framework used to analyze the development of humanistic principles. The study had a mixed-method longitudinal design that included questionnaires, reflection templates and interviews. In conclusion, although it is suggested that UPES should provide better support for the development of the teaching principles of empowering students and transfer learning, most of the humanistic principles were highly promoted by the program. At last, it is suggested that future research should track teachers' progress while teaching in schools, in order to analyze if the theory of promoting humanistic principles have also become a daily practice.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

An Ontario-Developed Online Special Education Teacher Course Model for China

This study investigated the effectiveness of an Ontario-developed online Special Education teacher training course as a model for in-service teacher professional development in China. The study employed a mixed method approach encompassing both a quantitative survey and a qualitative research component to gather perceptions of Chinese and Canadian teachers, educational administrators, and teacher-educators who have intensive experience with online education, Special Education, and teacher preparation programs both in China and Canada. The study revealed insufficient understanding of Special Education among the general Chinese population, underdevelopment of Special Education teacher preparation in China, and potential benefits of using a Canadian online teacher training course as a model for Special Education in China. Based on the literature review and the results of this study, it is concluded that online Canadian Special Education teacher in-service courses can set an example for Chinese Special Education teacher training. A caveat is that such courses would require localized modifications, support of educational authorities, and pilot testing.

The time-course of lexical activation in Japanese morphographic word recognition: Evidence for a character-driven processing model

This lexical decision study with eye tracking of Japanese two-kanji-character words investigated the order in which a whole two-character word and its morphographic constituents are activated in the course of lexical access, the relative contributions of the left and the right characters in lexical decision, the depth to which semantic radicals are processed, and how nonlinguistic factors affect lexical processes. Mixed-effects regression analyses of response times and subgaze durations (i.e., first-pass fixation time spent on each of the two characters) revealed joint contributions of morphographic units at all levels of the linguistic structure with the magnitude and the direction of the lexical effects modulated by readers’ locus of attention in a left-to-right preferred processing path. During the early time frame, character effects were larger in magnitude and more robust than radical and whole-word effects, regardless of the font size and the type of nonwords. Extending previous radical-based and character-based models, we propose a task/decision-sensitive character-driven processing model with a level-skipping assumption: Connections from the feature level bypass the lower radical level and link up directly to the higher character level.

The Conceptualization and Exploration of Place Allegiance: Towards a Unified Model of Person-Place Relationships within Outdoor Recreation

The academic study of place has been generally defined by two distinct and highly refined discourses within outdoor recreation research: place attachment and sense of place. Place attachment generally describes the intensity of the place relationship, whereas sense of place approaches place from a more holistic and intimate orientation. This study bridges these two methodological and theoretical separate areas of place research together by re-conceptualizing the way in which place relationships are viewed within outdoor recreation research. The Psychological Continuum Model is used to extend the language of place attachment to incorporate more of the philosophy of sense of place while attending to the empirical strength and utility of place attachment. This extension results in the term place allegiance being coined to depict the strong and profound relationships outdoor recreationists build with their places of outdoor recreation. Using a concurrent mixed methods research design, this study explored place allegiance via an online survey (n = 437) and thirteen in-depth qualitative interviews with outdoor recreationists. Results indicate that place allegiance can be measured through a multi-dimensional model of place allegiance that incorporates behaviours, importance, resistance, knowledge and symbolic value. In addition, place allegiance was found to be related to an individual's influence on life course and his/her willingness to exhibit preservation and protection tendencies. Place allegiance plays an important role in acknowledging the importance of authentic place relationships in an effort to confront placelessness. Wilderness recreation is an important avenue for outdoor recreationists to build strong place relationships.