Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Assessing the Reproducibility of Clustering of Molecular Dynamics Conformations on Self-Organizing Maps

The goal of most clustering algorithms is to find the optimal number of clusters (i.e. fewest number of clusters). However, analysis of molecular conformations of biological macromolecules obtained from computer simulations may benefit from a larger array of clusters. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) clustering method has the advantage of generating large numbers of clusters, but often gives ambiguous results. In this work, SOMs have been shown to be reproducible when the same conformational dataset is independently clustered multiple times (~100), with the help of the Cramérs V-index (C_v). The ability of C_v to determine which SOMs are reproduced is generalizable across different SOM source codes. The conformational ensembles produced from MD (molecular dynamics) and REMD (replica exchange molecular dynamics) simulations of the penta peptide Met-enkephalin (MET) and the 34 amino acid protein human Parathyroid Hormone (hPTH) were used to evaluate SOM reproducibility. The training length for the SOM has a huge impact on the reproducibility. Analysis of MET conformational data definitively determined that toroidal SOMs cluster data better than bordered maps due to the fact that toroidal maps do not have an edge effect. For the source code from MATLAB, it was determined that the learning rate function should be LINEAR with an initial learning rate factor of 0.05 and the SOM should be trained by a sequential algorithm. The trained SOMs can be used as a supervised classification for another dataset. The toroidal 10×10 hexagonal SOMs produced from the MATLAB program for hPTH conformational data produced three sets of reproducible clusters (27%, 15%, and 13% of 100 independent runs) which find similar partitionings to those of smaller 6×6 SOMs. The χ^2 values produced as part of the C_v calculation were used to locate clusters with identical conformational memberships on independently trained SOMs, even those with different dimensions. The χ^2 values could relate the different SOM partitionings to each other.