Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Gala Performance on the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting Programme

The programme from the Gala Performance on the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, 7 August 1973. The event took place in the Opera of the National Arts Centre in Ottawa.

Everything that rises must converge: a neo-Marxist analysis of Canadian business-government relations

The following thesis presents an analysis of business-government relations within a neo-Marxist framework. Specifically, the discussion encompasses how the business interest group. the Business Council on National Issues, maintains consensus and unity amongst its monopoly capital members. Furthermore. the study elaborates on the process through which the group's interests are acknowledged and legitimized by the state under the "public interest" f8fue. Most of the literature pertaining to business-government relations within the context of interactions between business interest groups and the state, and such specific branches of the state as the government and/or the civil service. emphasize a liberal-pluralist perspective. Essentially, these writings serve to reflect and legitimate the current slatus quo. Marxist discourses on the subject, while attempting to transcend the liberal-pluralist framework. nevertheless suffer from either economic determinism .. ie., stressing the state's accumulation function but not its legitimation function or historical specificity. A cogent and comprehensive neo-Marxist analysis of business-government relations must discuss both the accumulation and legitimation functions of the state. The process by which the concerns of a particular business interest group become part of the state's policy agenda and subsequently are formulated and implemented into policies which legitimate its dominance is also studied. This inquiry is significant given the liberal-pluralist assumptions of a neutral state and that all interest groups compete "on a level playing field". The author's neo-Marxist paradigm rejects both of these assumptions. Building on concepts from nea-Marxist instrumentalism. structuralism. state monopoly capitalism, and forms and functions of the state perspectives. the author proposes that policies which legitimize the interests of the monopoly capital fraction cannot. be discerned only from the state's activities. per StJ. Clearly, if the liberal-pluralist 3 contention of multiple and conflicting interest groups, including those within the capitalist class, is taken at face value, M interest group such as the Business Council on National Issues (BCND, must somehow maintain. internal consensus Md unity amongst its members. Internal consensus amongst its members ensures that the state can better acknowledge and articulate its concerns into policies that maintain hegemonic dominance of the monopoly capital fraction under the "public interest" fllf.JJdq. The author contends that the BCNI focuses most of its interactions on the upper echelons of the civil service since it is this branch of the state which is most responsible for policy formulation and implementation. The author's paradigm is applied within the context of extensively analyzing newspaper coverage. BCN! publications, and other published sources, as well as a personal interview with an executive administrative member of the BeNI. The discussion focuses on how agreement and unity amongst the various interests of the monopoly capital fraction are maintained through the business organization, its policy scope, and finally its interactions with the state. The analysis suggests that while the civil service is an important player in expressing the interests of the BCNI's membership through policies which ostensibly also reflect the "public interest", it is not the only strategic target for the BCNI's interactions with the state. The author's research also highlights the importance of government officials at the Cabinet level and Cabinet Committees. Senior elected officials from the Federal government are also significant in avoiding intergovernmental or interprovincial conflict in implementing policies that legitimize hegemonic dominance of the monopoly capital fraction over other fractions and classes.

From Fordism to neoconservatism : free trade and Canadian industrial policy in an era of globalism /

Nothing today affects the lives of people in countries throughout the industrialized and developing world as much as international trade. Nowhere is this more true than in Canada. Canada's involvement in international trade has a long history dating back to 1854 when it was a British colony. As a major trading country, Canada has always adopted a proactive industrial policy which has been largely responsible for its relative economic prosperi ty. But, wi th businesses now free to invest and divest under the terms of the CUFTA and the NAFTA, the most fundamental concerns for Canadians, in a borderless world, are what powers will the Canadian government have to shape industrial policy, and to what extent can Canada continue as a viable nationstate if it can no longer control its national economy? These are important concerns because, in world without borders, the adjustment process becomes more volatile and more difficult to manage. The CUFTA and the NAFTA not only create the rules for conducting trade, but they also establish a set of new rules for the Canadian government that will diminish its power. As a member of a new North American trading bloc, Canada will find itself subject to a set of forces requiring analysis beyond participation in a conventional free trade area. Because many of the traditional levers of government will now be subject to external control imposed by these agreements, Canada will not be able to mount certain policies in the future that it has relied on in the past. This reality limits the pro-active role of the Canadian state to use policies and programmes for the country's immediate national development. What this thesis attempts is an examination of the evolution of Canadian industrial policy, in effect, the transi tion from Fordism to Neoconservatism, and an assessment of Canada's future as a nation-state as it tries to find security and improved access in a free trade arrangement. Unless Canada takes steps to neutralize the asymmetry of power between itself and the United States through adjustment programmes, it is the contention of this thesis that its economic future is anything but stable.

Legitimacy in question : elite-mass relations, constitutional reform and Canadian democracy /

During the 1980s and 1990s, Canadian political authority orientations underwent a significant transformation. Canadians are no longer deferential towards their political elites. Instead, they are autonomous, challenging, and increasingly participatory, and this continuing trend has brought the procedural legitimacy of the Canadian political process into question. The following study of elite-mass relations within Canadian democracy attempts to provide insight into the meaning of this change and how it should be addressed. An attitudinalbehavioural analysis ofthe electorate presents evidence that popular cynicism and alienation is rooted more deeply in a dissatisfaction with political institutions and traditions than with politicians. A structural analysis of the elected political elite reveals the failure of consociational traditions to provide effective representation as well as the minimal impact which the aforementioned orientation shift has had upon this elite. An event-decisional analysis, or case study, ofelite-mass relations in the arena of constitutional politics augments these complementary profiles and illustrates how the transformed electorate has significantly restricted the elected political elite's role in constitutional reform. The study concludes that the lack ofresponsiveness, representativeness, and inclusiveness ofCanada's elected political elite, political institutions, and political traditions has substantially eroded the procedural legitimacy of Canadian democracy during the 1980s and 1990s. Remedying these three deficiencies in the political system, which are the objects of increasing public demand, may restore legitimacy, but the likelihood that such reforms will be adopted is presently uncertain in the face of formidable difficulties and obstacles.

Public service reform and the role of the Auditor General /

The objective of this thesis is to study the involvement of the Auditor General in the proposal, implementation and review of major public service reform initiatives during a period spanning nearly forty years, from the early 1960s to 2001 . This period began with the Glassco Commission and concludes at the end of the term in office of Auditor General Denis Desautels in 2001. It has been demonstrated throughout this work that the role of the OAG has varied, from proponent to critic, from instigator to reviewer. In the past forty years the OAG's mandate has changed to meet the requirements of critical analysis of government operations and this has been aptly demonstrated in the office's relationship to the issue of public service reform. It has been argued that many of the problems facing the public service are cultural in nature. Reform initiatives have taken on a number of various forms with each addressing a different set of priorities. However, there has been a great deal of consistency in the cultural values that these initiatives articulate. Throughout this thesis attention has been paid to values. Values define a culture and cultural change is required within the Canadian federal public service. How and when this cultural change will occur is but one question to be answered. During the period under consideration in this thesis the government undertook several significant public service reform initiatives. Those examined in this thesis include: The Royal Commission on Government Organization, The Special Committee on the Review of Personnel Management and the Merit Principle, The Royal Commission on Financial Management and Accountability, Increased Ministerial Authority and Accountability, Public Service 2000, Program Review and finally La Releve. The involvement, or interest, of the Auditor General's Office on the subject of public service reform is generally articulated through the means of its annual reports to Parliament although there have been supplementary undertakings on this issue. Such material relevant to this study include: Towards Better Governance: Public Service Reform in New Zealand (1984-94) and its Relevance to Canada and Reform in the Australian Public Service. Annual reports to Parliament include: "Values, Service and Performance," (1990), "Canada's Public Service Reform and Lessons Learned from Selected Jurisdictions," (1993), "Maintaining a Competent and Efficient Public Service," (1997), and "Expenditure and Work Force Reduction in Selected Departments,"

Openness and privacy in Ontario: an evaluation of the implementation of FIPPA : (The Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, 1987, Chapter 25 and Ontario Regulation 532/87) /

Since the early 1970's, Canadians have expressed many concerns about the growth of government and its impact on their daily lives. The public has requested increased access to government documents and improved protection of the personal information which is held in government files and data banks. At the same time, both academics and practitioners in the field of public administration have become more interested in the values that public servants bring to their decisions and recommendations. Certain administrative values, such as accountability and integrity, have taken on greater relative importance. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the implementation of Ontario's access and privacy law. It centres on the question of whether or not the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, 1987, (FIPPA) has answered the demand for open access to government while at the same time protecting the personal privacy of individual citizens. It also assesses the extent to which this relatively new piece of legislation has made a difference to the people of Ontario. The thesis presents an overview of the issues of freedom of information and protection of privacy in Ontario. It begins with the evolution of the legislation and a description of the law itself. It focuses on the structures and processes which have been established to meet the procedural and administrative demands of the Act. These structures and processes are evaluated in two ways. First, the thesis evaluates how open the Ontario government has become and, second, it determines how Ill carefully the privacy rights of individuals are safeguarded. An analytical framework of administrative values is used to evaluate the overall performance of the government in these two areas. The conclusion is drawn that, overall, the Ontario government has effectively implemented the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, particularly by providing access to most government-held documents. The protection of individual privacy has proved to be not only more difficult to achieve, but more difficult to evaluate. However, the administrative culture of the Ontario bureaucracy is shown to be committed to ensuring that the access and privacy rights of citizens are respected.

Aging policy: a case study of co-ordination in Canadian governments

ABSTRACT Canada is an aging society. The number of people aged sixty-five and over is rising, while the number of people under twenty is declining. These two concurrent changes in the age structure have produced a sh~ft in the demographic composition of Canada which is commonly referred to as the aging phenomenon. Regardless of whether or not the number of people under twenty continues to decline, the number of elderly in Canada will almost double over the next twenty years. This rapidly growing elderly clientele will doubtless have an impact on Canadian governments. Federal, provincial and municipal governments are presently providing a variety of programs that have a special bearing on the aged and most senior citizens are beneficiaries of one or more of these programs. The ramifications of a rapidly growing elderly clientele are obvious. In order to cope with the impact of a significant increase in the number of elderly persons, the development and implementation of aging policy must be co-ordinated at each level of government and between and among levels of government. If aging policy is not co-ordinated, the results are likely to be: inappropriate policy decisions; duplication and overlap; and, ineffective and irresponsive services. No one benefits from these results. The need for co-ordination is apparent. The purpose of this thesis is to examine existing governmental efforts to co-ordinate policy in the field of aging. These efforts are examined by focusing on interactions directed at co-ordination between and among major actors in aging policy. A framework is used to structure the description and analysis of these interactions. The variables of formalisation and intensity and the concept of power are instrumental in analysing interactions for co-ordination. The underlying intent of this thesis is to discover some of the main gaps in existing governmental efforts to co~ordinate aging policy. Gaps are, in fact, discovered. Several explanations for the existence of gaps in interactions for co-ordination are discussed. A major hypothesis involving a relationship between a bureaucratic form of organisation and interactions for coordination is suggested. Finally, three recommendations for improving co-ordination in aging policy are offered.

Improving the use of the nursing process: the impact of charting methodology developed from King's conceptual framework on the use of the nursing process

The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of changing a nursing documentation system, developed from King's Conceptual Framework, on the use of the nursing process. The null hypothesis was that there would be no significant increase in the reflection of the use of the nursing process on the nursing care plan or nurses' notes, as a result of using a nursing documentation system developed using King's Conceptual Framework (1981). The design involved the development of a questionnaire that was used to review health records pre and post implementation of a documentation system developed based on King's Conceptual Framework and Theory of Goal Attainment (1981). A Record Completeness Score was obtained from some of the questions. The null hypothesis was rejected. The results of the study have implications for nursing administration and the evaluation of nursing practice. If the use of a documentation system developed from a conceptual framework increases the reflection of the nursing process on the patient's health record, nursing will have the means to measure patient outcomes/goal attainment. All health care organizations and levels of government are focusing on methods to monitor and control the health-care dollar. In order for nursing to clearly determine the costs associated with nursing care, measurement of patient outcomes/goal attainment will need to be possible. In order to measure patient outcomes/goals attainment nurses will need to be able to collect data on their practice. It will be critical that nursing have a documentation system in place which facilitates the reflection of the nursing process within a theoretical framework.

Partnership, politics and public administration: a case study of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources

Efforts to reform the public sector reflect the social, political and economic environment within which government must function. The recent demands by the public for more consensual decision-making, as well as more efficient, effective and responsive public service, have resulted in a number of reform initiatives, including an emphasis on partnership development. The purpose of this thesis is to examine partnership arrangements within the public sector. Specifically, the thesis will assess the value of partnerships and their impact on government by examining six partnership arrangements involving the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). The OMNR, having recently been awarded the 1992 Institute of Public Administration of Canada Award for Innovative Management, on the theme of partnership development, is being lauded as an example for other government agencies considering similar alliances. The thesis begins by introducing the concept and practice of partnership within the public sector in general and the OMNR specifically. Descriptive analysis of six OMNR partnerships is provided and a number of criteria are used to determine the success of each of these arrangements. Special attention is paid to the political implications of partnerships and to those attributes which appear to contribute to the successful establishment and iii maintenance of partnership arrangements. The conclusion is drawn that partnerships provide the government with an opportunity to address public demands for greater involvement in decision-making while accommodating government's limited financial resources. However, few truly collaborative partnerships exist within the public sector. There are also significant political implications associated with partnerships which must be dealt with both at the political and bureaucratic levels of government. Lastly, it is argued that while partnerships within the OMNR are experiencing some difficulties, they constitute a genuine attempt to broaden the base of decision-making and to incorporate the concerns of stakeholders into resource management.

The Ontario Municipal Freedom of Information and Protection of Individual Privacy Act: an analysis of its application to school boards

In Canada freedom of information must be viewed in the context of governing -- how do you deal with an abundance of information while balancing a diversity of competing interests? How can you ensure people are informed enough to participate in crucial decision-making, yet willing enough to let some administrative matters be dealt with in camera without their involvement in every detail. In an age when taxpayers' coalition groups are on the rise, and the government is encouraging the establishment of Parent Council groups for schools, the issues and challenges presented by access to information and protection of privacy legislation are real ones. The province of Ontario's decision to extend freedom of information legislation to local governments does not ensure, or equate to, full public disclosure of all facts or necessarily guarantee complete public comprehension of an issue. The mere fact that local governments, like school boards, decide to collect, assemble or record some information and not to collect other information implies that a prior decision was made by "someone" on what was important to record or keep. That in itself means that not all the facts are going to be disclosed, regardless of the presence of legislation. The resulting lack of information can lead to public mistrust and lack of confidence in those who govern. This is completely contrary to the spirit of the legislation which was to provide interested members of the community with facts so that values like political accountability and trust could be ensured and meaningful criticism and input obtained on matters affecting the whole community. This thesis first reviews the historical reasons for adopting freedom of information legislation, reasons which are rooted in our parliamentary system of government. However, the same reasoning for enacting such legislation cannot be applied carte blanche to the municipal level of government in Ontario, or - ii - more specifially to the programs, policies or operations of a school board. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the Municipal Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, 1989 (MFIPPA) was a neccessary step to ensure greater openness from school boards. Based on a review of the Orders made by the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner/Ontario, it also assesses how successfully freedom of information legislation has been implemented at the municipal level of government. The Orders provide an opportunity to review what problems school boards have encountered, and what guidance the Commissioner has offered. Reference is made to a value framework as an administrative tool in critically analyzing the suitability of MFIPPA to school boards. The conclusion is drawn that MFIPPA appears to have inhibited rather than facilitated openness in local government. This may be attributed to several factors inclusive of the general uncertainty, confusion and discretion in interpreting various provisions and exemptions in the Act. Some of the uncertainty is due to the fact that an insufficient number of school board staff are familiar with the Act. The complexity of the Act and its legalistic procedures have over-formalized the processes of exchanging information. In addition there appears to be a concern among municipal officials that granting any access to information may be violating personal privacy rights of others. These concerns translate into indecision and extreme caution in responding to inquiries. The result is delay in responding to information requests and lack of uniformity in the responses given. However, the mandatory review of the legislation does afford an opportunity to address some of these problems and to make this complex Act more suitable for application to school boards. In order for the Act to function more efficiently and effectively legislative changes must be made to MFIPPA. It is important that the recommendations for improving the Act be adopted before the government extends this legislation to any other public entities.

Teachers' processes of negotiating meaning of new curriculum

This qualitative study addresses the question of how teachers negotiate meaning of new curriculum to better understand how curriculum is transformed from a theoretical construct to a practical one. Through interviews with 5 teachers, their experiences were examined as they negotiated the process of implementing new curriculum. Three theoretical constructs provided the entry point into the study: epistemology, teacher knowledge, and teacher learning. Using inductive analysis, 4 points or attributes of negotiation emerged: reference, growth, autonomy, and reconciliation. These attributes provided a theoretical framework from which a constructivist conceptualization of teacher learning and teacher knowledge could serve to understand the process of how teachers negotiate meaning of curriculum. Studied and theorized in this way, teacher knowledge and teacher learning are seen to be inextricably linked in a relationship that is dynamically changed by forces of stability and instability. Theorizing the negotiation of meaning from a constructivist epistemology also strengthened the assertion that negotiating meaning is a unique structural process, and that knowledge construction is therefore unique to each knower and subject to experience in a particular time and place. The implications for such a theory are, first, that it questions the legitimacy of privatized teacher practice and, second, that it calls for a renewed conceptualization of collegial network and relationship to strengthen the capacity for negotiating meaning of curricular initiatives. Understanding the relationship of curricular theory and negotiating meaning also has implications for curriculum development. In particular, the study highlights the necessity of professional discretion and the generative process of negotiating meaning.