A comparison between diatom inferred ph changes and diatom populations in brownwater and clearwater lakes

The objective of this study was to determine whether clearwater and brownwater lakes differed in their rate of acidification as inferred by subfossil diatoms analyzed in recent downcore sediments. Differences between associations of diatom populations in brownwater and clearwater environments were characterized. Sediment cores were taken from four lakes located north and east of Lake Superior, near Wawa, Ontario. Two of these lakes were humicrich, brownwater lakes ( lakes U1 and CB2). The two other lakes were clearwater lakes ( lakes Xl and CF). The regression of Nygaard log index-alpha for surficial diatom sediments on observed pH ( Inferred pH = 6.57 - 0.82 log index-alpha ), was utilized to infer lake pH in recent sediments of these lakes. Upon analyzing the downcore diatoms, it was discovered that no significant change, in downcore diatom inferred pH, could be detected in the two brownwater lakes. In contrast, the two clearwater lakes showed significant shifts in downcore diatom inferred pH. In one of these lakes, pH had dropped from 5.3 to 4.5, in the top 9.0 cm of the core, while in the second lake, pH had dropped from 5.4 to 5.0 in the top 1.5 cm of the core. These findings suggested that humic substances, found in brownwater lakes, imparted a buffering capacity to these lake waters. In the clearwater lakes, the decrease in pH was very probably a consequence of acid precipitation. The Ambrosia rise ( circa 1890 ) occurred at the same depth in both brownwater lakes ( 11.0 - 12.0 cm). In both clearwater lakes, the Ambrosia rise occurred at a depth of 14.0 - 15.0 cm. This suggested a lower sedimentation rate in the brownwater lakes. pH influenced the total percentage composition of diatom pH indicator groups. Greater numbers of alkaliphilous taxa were found in less acidic lakes ( e.g. Lake Ul ), While greater numbers of acidloving forms were found in highly acidic lakes ( e.g. Lake Xl ). There was a greater abundance of indifferent forms in the brownwater lakes, than in the clearwater lakes. A number of diatom genera and species were found to be associated with either clearwater or brownwater conditions. The centric diatom, ~elosira distans, significantly increased in abundance in the recent sediments of both clearwater lakes. This may be indicating a shift toward a more oligotrophic state within these acidic, clearwater lakes. This study suggested that a pH index based on subfossil diatoms may be a sensitive indicator of changing lake pH. This study also indicated that humic substances may playa more important role, than previously acknowledged, in controlling the pH dynamics of lake waters, and in determining diatom populations.

A stochastic dynamic programming approach for pricing options on stock-index futures

The aim of this thesis is to price options on equity index futures with an application to standard options on S&P 500 futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Our methodology is based on stochastic dynamic programming, which can accommodate European as well as American options. The model accommodates dividends from the underlying asset. It also captures the optimal exercise strategy and the fair value of the option. This approach is an alternative to available numerical pricing methods such as binomial trees, finite differences, and ad-hoc numerical approximation techniques. Our numerical and empirical investigations demonstrate convergence, robustness, and efficiency. We use this methodology to value exchange-listed options. The European option premiums thus obtained are compared to Black's closed-form formula. They are accurate to four digits. The American option premiums also have a similar level of accuracy compared to premiums obtained using finite differences and binomial trees with a large number of time steps. The proposed model accounts for deterministic, seasonally varying dividend yield. In pricing futures options, we discover that what matters is the sum of the dividend yields over the life of the futures contract and not their distribution.

Using the Reliable Change Index Statistic to Analyze Developmental Changes in Infants at Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Longitudinal studies of the development of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) provide an understanding of which variables may be important predictors of an ASD. The objective of the current study is to apply the reliable change index (RCI) statistic to examine whether the Parent Observation of Early Markers Scale (POEMS) is sensitive to developmental change, and whether these changes can be quantified along a child’s developmental trajectory. Ninety-six children with older siblings with autism were followed from 1-36 months of age. Group-based RCI analysis confirms that the POEMS is capable of detecting significant changes within pre-defined diagnostic groups. Within-subject analysis suggests that ongoing monitoring of a child at-risk for an ASD requires interpretation of both significant intervals identified by the RCI statistic, as well as the presence of repeated high (i.e., >70) scores. This study provides preliminary evidence for a reasonably sensitive and specific means by which individual change can be clinically monitored via parent report.