The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

Bone properties and skeletal maturity in adolescent males, as assessed by quantitative ultrasound

ABSTRACT Background: Previous studies have implied that weight-bearing, intense and prolonged physical activities optimize bone accretion during the grow^ing years. The majority of past inquiries have used dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) to examine bone strength and hand-wrist radiography to determine skeletal maturity in children. Recently, quantitative ultrasound (QUS) technologies have been developed to examine bone properties and skeletal maturity in a safe, noninvasive and cost-effective manner. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare bone properties and skeletal maturity in competitive male child and adolescent athletes with minimallyactive, age-matched controls, using QUS technology. >. Methods: In total, 224 males were included in the study. The 115 pre-pubertal boys aged 10-12 years consisted of control, minimally-active children (n=34), soccer players (n=26), gymnasts (n=25) and hockey players (n=30). In addition, the 109 late-pubertal boys aged 14-16 years consisted of control, minimally-active adolescents (n=31), soccer players (n=30), gymnasts (n=17) and hockey players (n=31). The athletic groups were elite level players that predominantly trained year-round. Physical activity, nutrition and sports participation were assessed with various questionnaires. Anthropometries, such as height, weight and relative body fat percentage (BF%) were assessed using standard measures. Skeletal strength and age were evaluated using bone QUS. Lastly, salivary testosterone (sT) concentration was measured using Radioimmunoassay (RIA). Results: Within each age group, there were no significant differences between the activity groups in age and pubertal stage. An age effect was apparent in all variables, as expected. A sport effect was noted in all physical characteristics: the child and adolescent gymnasts were shorter and lighter than other sports groups. Adiposity was greater in the controls and in the hockey players. All child subjects were pubertal stage (fanner) I or II, while adolescent subjects were pubertal stage IV or V. There were no differences in daily energy and mineral intakes between sports groups. In both age groups, gymnasts had a higher training volume than other athletic groups. Bone speed of sound (50s) was higher in adolescents compared with the children. Gymnasts had signifieantly higher radial 50S than controls, hockey and soccer players in both age cohorts. Hockey athletes also had higher radial 50S than controls and soccer players in the child and adolescent groups, respectiyely. Child gymnasts and soccer players had greater tibial 50S compared with the hockey players and control groups. Likewise, adolescent gymnasts and soccer players had higher tibial SoS compared with the control group. No interaction was apparent between age and type of activity in any of the bone measures. » Lastly, maturity as assessed by sT and secondary sex characteristics (Tanner stage) was not different between sports group within each age group. Despite the similarity in chronological age, androgen levels and sexual maturity, differences between activity groups were noted in skeletal maturity. In the younger group, hockey players had the highest bone age while the soccer players had the lowest bone age. In the adolescent group, gymnasts and hockey players were characterized by higher skeletal maturity compared with controls. An interaction between the age and sport type effects was apparent in skeletal maturity, reflecting the fact that among the children, the soccer players were significantly less mature than the rest of the groups, while in the adolescents, the controls were the least skeletally mature. Summary and Conclusions: In summary, radial and tibial SOS are enhanced by the unique loading pattern in each sport (i.e, upper and lower extremities in gymnastics, lower extremities in soccer), with no cumulative effect between childhood and adolescence. That is, the effect of sport participation on bone SOS was apparent already among the young athletes. Enhanced bone properties among athletes of specific sports suggest that participation in these sports can improve bone strength and potential bone health.

Reactivity characteristics of cytochrome c, cytochrome oxidase and the electrostatic cytochrome c - cytochrome oxidase complex /

The mechanism whereby cytochrome £ oxidase catalyses elec-. tron transfer from cytochrome £ to oxygen remains an unsolved problem. Polarographic and spectrophotometric activity measurements of purified, particulate and soluble forms of beef heart mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase presented in this thesis confirm the following characteristics of the steady-state kinetics with respect to cytochrome £: (1) oxidation of ferrocytochrome c is first order under all conditions. -(2) The relationship between sustrate concentration and velocity is of the Michaelis-Menten type over a limited range of substrate. concentrations at high ionic strength. (3) ~he reaction rate is independent from oxygen concentration until very low levels of oxygen. (4) "Biphasic" kinetic plots of enzyme activity as a function of substrate concentration are found when the range of cytochrome c concentrations is extended; the biphasicity ~ is more apparent in low ionic strength buffer. These results imply two binding sites for cytochrome £ on the oxidase; one of high affinity and one of low affinity with Km values of 1.0 pM and 3.0 pM, respectively, under low ionic strength conditions. (5) Inhibition of the enzymic rate by azide is non-c~mpetitive with respect to cytochrome £ under all conditions indicating an internal electron transfer step, and not binding or dissociation of £ from the enzyme is rate limiting. The "tight" binding of cytochrome '£ to cytochrome c oxidase is confirmed in column chromatographic experiments. The complex has a cytochrome £:oxidase ratio of 1.0 and is dissociated in media of high ionic strength. Stopped-flow spectrophotometric studies of the reduction of equimolar mixtures and complexes of cytochrome c and the oxidase were initiated in an attempt to assess the functional relevance of such a complex. Two alternative routes -for reduction of the oxidase, under conditions where the predominant species is the £ - aa3 complex, are postulated; (i) electron transfer via tightly bound cytochrome £, (ii) electron transfer via a small population of free cytochrome c interacting at the "loose" binding site implied from kinetic studies. It is impossible to conclude, based on the results obtained, which path is responsible for the reduction of cytochrome a. The rate of reduction by various reductants of free cytochrome £ in high and low ionic strength and of cytochrome £ electrostatically bound to cytochrome oxidase was investigated. Ascorbate, a negatively charged reagent, reduces free cytochrome £ with a rate constant dependent on ionic strength, whereas neutral reagents TMPD and DAD were relatively unaffected by ionic strength in their reduction of cytochrome c. The zwitterion cysteine behaved similarly to uncharged reductants DAD and TI~PD in exhibiting only a marginal response to ionic strength. Ascorbate reduces bound cytochrome £ only slowly, but DAD and TMPD reduce bound cytochrome £ rapidly. Reduction of cytochrome £ by DAD and TMPD in the £ - aa3 complex was enhanced lO-fold over DAD reduction of free £ and 4-fold over TMPD reduction of free c. Thus, the importance of ionic strength on the reactivity of cytochrome £ was observed with the general conclusion being that on the cytochrome £ molecule areas for anion (ie. phosphate) binding, ascorbate reduction and complexation to the oxidase overlap. The increased reducibility for bound cytochrome £ by reductants DAD and TMPD supports a suggested conformational change of electrostatically bound c compare.d to free .£. In addition, analysis of electron distribution between cytochromes £ and a in the complex suggest that the midpotential of cytochrome ~ changes with the redox state of the oxidase. Such evidence supports models of the oxidase which suggest interactions within the enzyme (or c - enzyme complex) result in altered midpoint potentials of the redox centers.

Sedimentology and micromorphology of drumlin sediments at Chimney Bluffs State Park, New York, United States of America

The drumlin sediments at Chimney Bluffs, New York appear to represent a block-inmatrix style glacial melange. This melange comprises sand stringers, lenses and intraclasts juxtaposed in an apparently massive diamicton. Thin section examination of these glacigenic deposits has revealed microstructures indicative of autokinetic subglacial defonnation which are consistent with a deformable bed origin for the diamicton. These features include banding and. necking of matrix grains, oriented plasma fabrics and the formation of pressure shadows at the long axis ends of elongate clasts. Preservation of primary stratification within the sand intraclasts appears to suggest that these features were pre-existing up-ice deposits that were frozen, entrained, then deposited as part of a defonning till layer beneath an advancing ice sheet. Multi-directional micro-shearing within the sand blocks is thought to reflect the frozen nature of the sand units in such a high strain environment. It is also contended that dewatering of the sediment pile leading to the eventual immobilisation of the defonning till layer was responsible for opening sub-horizontal fissures within the diamicton. These features were subsequently infilled with mass flow poorly sorted sands and silts which were subjected to ductile defonnation during the waning stages of an actively deforming till layer. Microstructures indicative of the dewatering processes in the sand units include patches of fine-grained particles within a coarser-grained matrix and the presence of concentrated zones of translocated clays. However, these units were probably confined within an impermeable diamicton casing that prevented massive pore water influxes from the deforming till layer~ Hence, these microstructures probably reflect localised dewatering of the sand intraclasts. A layered subglacial shear zone model is proposed for the various features exhibited by the drumlin sediments. The complexity of these structures is explained in terms of ii superposing deformation styles in response to changing pore water pressures. Constructional glaciotectonics, as implied by the occurrence of sub-horizontal fissuring, is suggested as the mechanism for the stacking of the sand intraclast units within the diamicton. The usefulness of micromorphology in complimenting the traditional sedimentology of glacigenic deposits is emphasised by the current study. An otherwise massive diamicton was shown to contain microstructures indicative of the very high strain rates expected in a complexly deforming till layer. . It is quite obvious from this investigation that the classification of diamictons needs to be re-examined for evidence of microstructures that could lead to the re-interpretation of diamicton forming processes. RESUME Le pacquet de sediments drumlinaire de Chimney Bluffs, New York, represent un "bloc-en-matrice" genre de melange glaciale. Des structures microscopique comprennent l'evidence pour la defonnation intrinseque attribuee a l'origine lit non resistant du drumlin. PreselVation des structures primaires au coeur des blocs arenaces suggere que ceux sont des depots preexistant qui furent geles, entraines et par la suite sedimentes au milieu d'une couche de debris sous-glaciaires en voie de deformation. Des failles microscopiques a l'interieur des blocs arenaces appuient aussi l'idee d'un bloc cohesif (c'est-a-dire gele) au centre d'un till non resistant. Des implications significatives s'emergent de cette etude pour les conditions sous-glaciaire et les processus de la formation des drumlin.

The Falkland Islands War of 1982: a legal, diplomatic and strategic evaluation

The Falkland Islands War of 1982 was fought over competing claims to sovereignty over a group of islands off the east coast of South America. The dispute was between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Argentina claims the islands under rights to Spanish succession, the fact that they lie off the Argentine coast line and that in 1833 Great Britain took the islands illegally and by force. The United Kingdom claims the islands primarily through prescription--the fact that they have governed the islands in a peaceful, continuous and public manner since 1833. The British also hold that the population living on the islands, roughly eighteen hundred British descendants, should be able to decide their own future. The United Kingdom also lays claim to the islands through rights of discovery and settlement, although this claim has always been challenged by Spain who until 1811 governed the islands. Both claims have legal support, and the final decision if there will ever be one is difficult to predict. Sadly today the ultimate test of sovereignty does not come through international law but remains in the idea that "He is sovereign who can defend his sovereignty." The years preceding the Argentine invasion of 1982 witnessed many diplomatic exchanges between The United Kingdom and Argentina over the future of the islands. During this time the British sent signals to Argentina that ii implied a decline in British resolve to hold the islands and demonstrated that military action did more to further the talks along than did actual negotiations. The Argentine military junta read these signals and decided that they could take the islands in a quick military invasion and that the United Kingdom would consider the act as a fait accompli and would not protest the invasion. The British in response to this claimed that they never signaled to Argentina that a military solution was acceptable to them and launched a Royal Navy task force to liberate the islands. Both governments responded to an international crisis with means that were designed both to resolve the international crisis and increase the domestic popularity of the government. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was facing an all-time low in popularity for post-War Prime Ministers while Argentine President General Galtieri needed to gain mass popular support so he could remain a viable President after he was scheduled to lose command of the army and a seat on the military junta that ran the country. The military war for the Falklands is indicative of the nature of modern warfare between Third World countries. It shows that the gap in military capabilities between Third and First World countries is narrowing significantly. Modern warfare between a First and Third World country is no longer a 'walk over' for the First World country.

The law of the sea: the United States, Canada and the deep seabed

The Falkland Islands War of 1982 was fought over competing claims to sovereignty over a group of islands off the east coast of South America. The dispute was between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Argentina claims the islands under rights to Spanish succession, the fact that they lie off the Argentine coast line and that in 1833 Great Britain took the islands illegally and by force. The United Kingdom claims the islands primarily through prescription--the fact that they have governed the islands in a peaceful, continuous and public manner since 1833. The British also hold that the population living on the islands, roughly eighteen hundred British descendants, should be able to decide their own future. The United Kingdom also lays claim to the islands through rights of discovery and settlement, although this claim has always been challenged by Spain who until 1811 governed the islands. Both claims have legal support, and the final decision if there will ever be one is difficult to predict. Sadly today the ultimate test of sovereignty does not come through international law but remains in the idea that "He is sovereign who can defend his sovereignty." The years preceding the Argentine invasion of 1982 witnessed many diplomatic exchanges between The United Kingdom and Argentina over the future of the islands. During this time the British sent signals to Argentina that ii implied a decline in British resolve to hold the islands and demonstrated that military action did more to further the talks along than did actual negotiations. The Argentine military junta read these signals and decided that they could take the islands in a quick military invasion and that the United Kingdom would consider the act as a fait accompli and would not protest the invasion. The British in response to this claimed that they never signaled to Argentina that a military solution was acceptable to them and launched a Royal Navy task force to liberate the islands. Both governments responded to an international crisis with means that were designed both to resolve the international crisis and increase the domestic popularity of the government. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was facing an all-time low in popularity for post-War Prime Ministers while Argentine President General Galtieri needed to gain mass popular support so he could remain a viable President after he was scheduled to lose command of the army and a seat on the military junta that ran the country. The military war for the Falklands is indicative of the nature of modern warfare between Third World countries. It shows that the gap in military capabilities between Third and First World countries is narrowing significantly. Modern warfare between a First and Third World country is no longer a 'walk over' for the First World country.

Fitness to stand trial : how discourses of rationality, reasonableness and culpability inform the law and psychiatry to create standards of normal

The objective of this thesis is to demonstrate the importance of the concepts of rationality, reasonableness, culpability and autonomy that inform and support our conception of both the person and the punishable subject. A critical discourse analysis tracing these concepts through both the law and psychological tools used to evaluate the fitness of a person reveals that these concepts and their implied values are inconsistently applied to the mentally disordered who come into conflict with the law. I argue that the result of this inconsistency compromises a person's autonomy which is a contradiction to this concept as a foundational principle of the law. Ultimately, this thesis does not provide a solution to be employed in policy making, but its analysis leaves open possibilities for further exploration into the ways legal and social justice can be reconciled.

Mechanism of tocopherol transfer by human α-tocopherol transfer protein (α-hTTP)

Vitamin E is a well known fat soluble chain breaking antioxidant. It is a general tenn used to describe a family of eight stereoisomers of tocopherols. Selective retention of a-tocopherol in the human circulation system is regulated by the a -Tocopherol Transfer Protein (a-TIP). Using a fluorescently labelled a-tocopherol (NBD-a-Toc) synthesized in our laboratory, a fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) assay was developed to monitor the kinetics of ligand transfer by a-hTTP in lipid vesicles. Preliminary results implied that NBD-a-Toe simply diffused from 6-His-a-hTTP to acceptor membranes since the kinetics of transfer were not responsive to a variety of conditions tested. After a series of trouble shooting experiments, we identified a minor contaminant, E coli. outer membrane porin F (OmpF) that co-purified with 6-His-a-hTTP from the metal affinity column as the source of the problem. In order to completely avoid OmpF contamination, a GST -a-hTTP fusion protein was purified from a glutathione agarose column followed by an on-column thrombin digestion to remove the GST tag. We then demonstrated that a-hTTP utilizes a collisional mechanism to deliver its ligand. Furthennore, a higher rate of a-tocopherol transfer to small unilamellar vesicles (SUV s) versus large unilamellar vesicles (LUV s) indicated that transfer is sensitive to membrane curvature. These findings suggest that ahTTP mediated a-Toc transfer is dominated by the hydrophobic nature of a-hTTP and the packing density of phospholipid head groups within acceptor membranes. Based on the calculated free energy change (dG) when a protein is transferred from water to the lipid bilayer, a model was generated to predict the orientation of a-hTTP when it interacts with lipid membranes. Guided by this model, several hydrophobic residues expected to penetrate deeply into the bilayer hydrophobic core, were mutated to either aspartate or alanine. Utilizing dual polarization interferometry and size exclusion vesicle binding assays, we identified the key residues for membrane binding to be F 165, F 169 and 1202. In addition, the rates of ligand transfer of the u-TTP mutants were directly correlated to their membrane binding capabilities, indicating that membrane binding was likely the rate limiting step in u-TTP mediated transfer of u-Toc. The propensity of u-TTP for highly curved membrane provides a connection to its colocalization with u-Toc in late endosomes.

The vocation of responsibility : a conceptual analysis of a modern idea

Please consult the paper edition of this thesis to read. It is available on the 5th Floor of the Library at Call Number: Z 9999 P55 N48 2004

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.