Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Understanding the financial status of a group of high performance athletes

With the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic Games quickly approaching, there has been a heightened interest in the performance of Canadian athletes at international competitions (Duffy, 2007; Fidlin, 2005; Longley, 2006). Two significant documents outline Canada's goal to become the number one sporting nation at the 2010 Olympic Games, and improve Canada's performance at the 2008 Olympic Games: Own the Podium and Road to Excellence (Priestner Allinger & Allinger, 2004; Road to Excellence, 2006). These two documents represent heightened interest in the performance of our elite athletes, in conjunction with Canada's hosting status of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The requirements to train and compete at the international level have become more demanding both in terms of financial resources and time commitment. The need to financially assist athletes with their training and competition costs has been an important topic of debate over the past decades (Beamish & Borowy, 1987; Gatehouse, 2004; Macintosh, 1996; Munro, 1970; Owens, 2004). Two sources of fiinding for high performance athletes in Canada are the Athlete Assistance Program (AAP) provided by the Federal Government and the Canadian Olympic Excellence Fund provided by the Canadian Olympic Committee. The importance of these fiinds for athletes has been discussed in various forums (Ekos, 1992, 1997, 2005; Priestner Allinger & Allinger, 2004; Thibault «& Babiak, 2005). However, alternative sources of funds for high performance athletes have never been the object of research. As such the purpose of this study was to describe a group of athlete applicants from the time period of November 2004 to April 2006, and to contextualize these applications within the development of the Charitable Fund for Athletes.

The effect of governance mechanism and structure on fees and performance of Mutual Funds in Canada

Taking advantage of the unique Canadian setting, this study empirically analyzes the impact of presence of the board of directors, as an internal governance mechanism, on fees and performance of mutual funds. Further, the impact of the board structure on fees and performance of corporate class funds is analyzed. We find that corporate class funds, which have a separate board of directors for the fund, charge higher fees; however, they also provide superior performance than trust funds. Furthermore, we find that for corporate class funds, smaller board, with higher percentage of independent directors, and with the fund CEO acting as the chairman of the board is likely to charge lower fees. Also, more independent boards are strongly associated with superior fee-adjusted performance.