Quaternary geology of the Campbellford, Trenton, Consecon, Tweed, Belleville, Wellington, Sydenham, Bath, and Yorkshire Island map-areas, Ontario /

Sediment relationships observed during geological mapping in southeastern Ontario indicate a relatively simple deglaciation history for the area during late Wisconsin time. The ice from the north (part of the Lake Simcoe lobe) and the Lake Ontario ice lobe, which were coalesced during most of late Wisconsin time, initially separated along the crest of the Oak Ridges Moraine. Available data indicate that the Oak Ridges Moraine is composed primarily of sediments pre-late Wisconsin in age capped by late Wisconsin till and interlobate deposits. Retreat of the northern ice was relatively steady and resulted in the deposition of the Dummer Moraines, a facies of the drumlinized till to the south. Retreat of the Lake Ontario ice lobe into the Lake Ontario basin was interrupted by a re-advance which covered the southeastern half of the map area. The northern ice had already retreated from the area by this time. The Lake Ontario lobe was fed through the St. Lawrence Valley, indicating that the Ottawa Valley was ice filled at this time. High level glacial lakes fronted the ice during deglaciation. These waters quickly fell to low levels as the ice retreated from the St. Lawrence Valley, opening lower outlets.

Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields