Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Orientation of Non-Native 2-Monosubstituted and 2,3-Disubstituted 1,4-Naphthoquinones in the A1 binding site of PSI and the effect on the rate of electron transfer : an electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy study

The proce-ss ofoxygenic photosynthesis is vital to life on Earth. the central event in photosynthesis is light induced electron transfer that converts light into energy for growth. Ofparticular significance is the membrane bound multisubunit protein known as Photosystem I (PSI). PSI is a reaction centre that is responsible for the transfer of electrons across the membrane to reduce NADP+ to NADPH. The recent publication ofa high resolution X-ray structure of PSI has shown new information about the structure, in particular the electron transfer cofactors, which allows us to study it in more detail. In PSI, the secondary acceptor is crucial for forward electron transfer. In this thesis, the effect of removing the native acceptor phylloquinone and replacing it with a series of structurally related quinones was investigated via transient electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) experiments. The orientation of non native quinones in the binding site and their ability to function in the electron transfer process was determined. It was found that PSI will readily accept alkyl naphthoquinones and anthraquinone. Q band EPR experiments revealed that the non-native quinones are incorporated into the binding site with the same orientation of the headgroup as in the native system. X band EPR spectra and deuteration experiments indicate that monosubstituted naphthoquinones are bound to the Al site with their side group in the position occupied by the methyl group in native PSI (meta to the hydrogen bonded carbonyl oxygen). X band EPR experiments show that 2, 3- disubstituted methyl naphthoquinones are also incorporated into the Al site in the same orientation as phylloquinone, even with the presence of a halogen- or sulfur-containing side chain in the position normally occupied by the phytyl tail ofphylloquinone. The exception to this is 2-bromo-3-methyl --.- _. -. - -- - - 4 _._ _ _ - _ _ naphthoquinone which has a poorly resolved spectrum, making determination of the orientation difficuh. All of the non-native quinones studied act as efficient electron acceptors. However, forward electron transfer past the quinone could only be demonstrated for anthraquinone, which has a more negative midpoint potential than phylloquinone. In the case of anthraquinone, an increased rate of forward electron transfer compared to native PSI was found. From these results we can conclude that the rate ofelectron transfer from Al to Fx in native PSI lies in the normal region ofthe Marcus Curve.

The information content of Canadian implied volatility indexes

For predicting future volatility, empirical studies find mixed results regarding two issues: (1) whether model free implied volatility has more information content than Black-Scholes model-based implied volatility; (2) whether implied volatility outperforms historical volatilities. In this thesis, we address these two issues using the Canadian financial data. First, we examine the information content and forecasting power between VIXC - a model free implied volatility, and MVX - a model-based implied volatility. The GARCH in-sample test indicates that VIXC subsumes all information that is reflected in MVX. The out-of-sample examination indicates that VIXC is superior to MVX for predicting the next 1-, 5-, 10-, and 22-trading days' realized volatility. Second, we investigate the predictive power between VIXC and alternative volatility forecasts derived from historical index prices. We find that for time horizons lesser than 10-trading days, VIXC provides more accurate forecasts. However, for longer time horizons, the historical volatilities, particularly the random walk, provide better forecasts. We conclude that VIXC cannot incorporate all information contained in historical index prices for predicting future volatility.

Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.

Macroeconomic News and LOB in Foreign Exchange ECN Market

We investigate the macroeconomic news effect on the dynamics of the limit order books (LOB) for euro-dollar ECN market in different economic states between Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2009. Using a VAR-STR model on the news surprise, pure news, aggregated good and bad news, we show that news effects on the LOB dynamics vary in different states of economy. The LOB dynamics are measured by depth, spread, slope and volatility. In contract to slope and volatility, depth and spread strongly respond to news surprise and pure news during recession and expansion. These characteristics are more affected by aggregated good and bad news during expansion. News effects are robust to alternative characteristic measures, the different sides of the LOB and the different levels in the LOB.