Decision-making theory applied to India's explosion of a nuclear device in May, 1974

This essay reviews the decision-making process that led to India exploding a nuclear device in May, 1974. An examination of the Analytic, Cybernetic and Cognitive Theories of decision, will enable a greater understanding of the events that led up to the 1974 test. While each theory is seen to be only partially useful, it is only by synthesising the three theories that a comprehensive account of the 1974 test can be given. To achieve this analysis, literature on decision-making in national security issues is reviewed, as well as the domestic and international environment in which involved decisionmakers operated. Finally, the rationale for the test in 1974 is examined. The conclusion revealed is that the explosion of a nuclear device by India in 1974 was primarily related to improving Indian international prestige among Third World countries and uniting a rapidly disintegrating Indian societal consensus. In themselves, individual decision-making theories were found to be of little use, but a combination of the various elements allowed a greater comprehension of the events leading up to the test than might otherwise have been the case.

Modeling Metal Protein Complexes from Experimental Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure using Computational Intelligence

Experimental Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) spectra carry information about the chemical structure of metal protein complexes. However, pre- dicting the structure of such complexes from EXAFS spectra is not a simple task. Currently methods such as Monte Carlo optimization or simulated annealing are used in structure refinement of EXAFS. These methods have proven somewhat successful in structure refinement but have not been successful in finding the global minima. Multiple population based algorithms, including a genetic algorithm, a restarting ge- netic algorithm, differential evolution, and particle swarm optimization, are studied for their effectiveness in structure refinement of EXAFS. The oxygen-evolving com- plex in S1 is used as a benchmark for comparing the algorithms. These algorithms were successful in finding new atomic structures that produced improved calculated EXAFS spectra over atomic structures previously found.

Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.