A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Wilson - Jones Promissory Note, 1806

A promise by Mr. Jones to pay Thomas Wilson 10 pounds 1/10, New York Currency, with interest. Witness was Mr. T. McCormick

Promissory Note, February 2, 1812 - William and Abraham Nelles and Nathanial Pettit Estate

A promise by Abraham and William Nelles to pay 50 pounds with interest, New York Currency, to John Pettit and Jonathan Woolverton, executors of the late Nathanial Pettit estate, three years after the date. Witness Will Crooks.

Promissory Note, February 2, 1813 - William and Abraham Nelles and Nathanial Pettit Estate

A promise by Abraham and William Nelles to pay 50 pounds with interest, New York Currency, to John Pettit and Jonathan Woolverton, executors of the late Nathanial Pettit estate, four years after the date. Witness Will Crooks.

Promissory Note, February 2, 1811 - William and Abraham Nelles and Nathanial Pettit Estate

A promise by Abraham and William Nelles to pay 50 pounds with interest, New York Currency, to John Pettit and Jonathan Woolverton, executors of the late Nathanial Pettit estate. Paid in full. Witness Will Crooks.

Promissory Note, February 2, 1814 - William and Abraham Nelles and Nathanial Pettit Estate

A promise by Abraham and William Nelles to pay 50 pounds with interest, New York Currency, to John Pettit and Jonathan Woolverton, executors of the late Nathanial Pettit estate, five years after the date. Witness Will Crooks.

Promissory Note, February 2, 1815 - William and Abraham Nelles and Nathanial Pettit Estate

A promise by Abraham and William Nelles to pay 50 pounds with interest, New York Currency, to John Pettit and Jonathan Woolverton, executors of the late Nathanial Pettit estate, six years after the date. Witness Will Crooks.

Promissory Note, February 2, 1816 - William and Abraham Nelles and Nathanial Pettit Estate

A promise by Abraham and William Nelles to pay 36 pounds with interest, New York Currency, to John Pettit and Jonathan Woolverton, executors of the late Nathanial Pettit estate, seven years after the date. Witness Will Crooks.

Erie & Niagara Railway Collection, 1864-1884

William Alexander Thomson (1816-1878) was a promoter and developer of railway systems in western Ontario. He incorporated the Fort Erie Railroad Company in 1857, purchased the Erie and Ontario Railroad in 1863, and incorporated the Erie and Niagara Extension Railway Company in 1868 (later renamed the Canada Southern Railway). Thomson was also elected to the House of Commons for Welland in 1872, and re-elected in 1874. He was known for his support of public management of the currency and is seen as a pioneer advocate of government monetary policy. He was also an advocate of radical agrarian economic doctrine, believing that Canadian laws favoured mercantile interests over those of the producers of goods, and that this hindered national development.

Arthur A. Schmon fonds

Arthur Albert Schmon was born in 1895 in Newark, New Jersey. During his studies at Barringer High School in Newark, he met Eleanore Celeste Reynolds who was to become his wife in August of 1919. Mr. Schmon studied English literature at Princeton and graduated with honours in 1917. That same year, Mr. Schmon joined the United States Army where he served under Colonel McCormick as an adjutant in field artillery in World War I. In 1919, he was discharged as a captain. Colonel McCormick (editor and publisher of the Chicago Tribune) offered Schmon a job in his Shelter Bay pulpwood operations. Mr. Schmon accepted the challenge of working at this lonely outpost on the lower St. Lawrence River. Schmon was promoted to Woodlands Manager in 1923. In 1930, he became the General Manager. This was expected to be a seasonal operation but the construction of the mill led to the building of a town (Baie Comeau) and its power development. All of this was accomplished under Schmon’s leadership. In 1933, he was elected the President and General Manager of the Ontario Paper Company. He later became the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Arthur Schmon made his home in St. Catharines where he played an active role in the community. Schmon was a member of the Founders’ Committee at Brock University and he was a primary force behind the establishment of a University in the Niagara Region. The Brock University Tower is named after him. He also served as Chairman of the St. Catharines Hospital Board of Governors for over 15 years, and was responsible for guiding the hospital through a 3 million dollar expansion program. He was a Governor of Ridley College and an Honorary Governor of McMaster University in Hamilton. Mr. Schmon died of lung cancer on March 18, 1964. He had been named as the St. Catharines’ citizen of the year just one week earlier. Mr. Schmon had 2 sons Robert McCormick Schmon, who was chairman of the Ontario Paper Co. Ltd., St. Catharines, Canada, and the Q.N.S. Paper Co., Baie-Comeau, Canada. He was also director of a Chicago Tribune Co. He died at the age of 61. Another son, Richard R. Schmon, was a second lieutenant in the 313th Field Artillery Battalion, 80th Infantry Division in World War II. He was listed as missing in action on November 5, 1944.