A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Form letter: a printed, 2 1/2 page copy of Jarvis Conklin and Co. Mortgage, Loans and Municipal Bonds letter to S.D. Woodruff, signed by James Conklin

Form letter: a printed, 2 1/2 page copy of Jarvis Conklin and Co. Mortgage, Loans and Municipal Bonds letter to S.D. Woodruff, signed by James Conklin, n.d.

The effect of a weighted-vest strength and balance training program on obstructed walking in postmenopausal women

SUMMARY Background: Age related declines in lower extremity strength have been associated with impaired mobility and changes in gait patterns, which increase the likelihood of falls. Since community dwelling adults encounter a wide range of locomotor challenges including uneven and obstmcted walking surfaces, we examined the effect of a strength 11 and balance exercise program on obstructed walking in postmenopausal women. Objectives: This study examined the effect of a weighted-vest strength and balance exercise program on adaptations of the stance leg during obstacle walking in postmenopausal women. Methods: Eighteen women aged 44-62 years who had not engaged in regular resistance training for the past year were recruited from the St. Catharines community to participate in this study. Eleven women volunteered for an aerobic (walking), strength, and balance training program 3 times per week for 12 weeks while 7 women volunteered as controls. Measurements included: force platform dynamic balance measure of the center of pressure (COP) and ground reaction forces (GRFs) in the stance leg while going over obstacles of different heights (0,5, 10,25 and 30 cm); and isokinetic strength measures of knee and ankle extension and flexion. Results: Of the 18 women, who began the trial, 16 completed it. The EX group showed a significant increase of 40% in ankle plantar flexion strength (P < 0.05). However, no improvements in measures of COP or GRFs were observed for either group. Failure to detect any changes in measures of dynamic balance may be due to small sample size. Conclusions: Postmenopausal women experience significant improvements in ankle strength with 12 weeks of a weighted-vest balance and strength training program, however, these changes do not seem to be associated with any improvement in measures of dynamic balance.

Physiological reactivity and the perception of emotional stimuli as they relate to social adaptive functioning after traumatic brain injury / y Melonie Jane Hopkins.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) often affects social adaptive functioning and these changes in social adaptability are usually associated with general damage to the frontal cortex. Recent evidence suggests that certain neurons within the orbitofrontal cortex appear to be specialized for the processing of faces and facial expressions. The orbitofrontal cortex also appears to be involved in self-initiated somatic activation to emotionally-charged stimuli. According to Somatic Marker Theory (Damasio, 1994), the reduced physiological activation fails to provide an individual with appropriate somatic cues to personally-relevant stimuli and this, in turn, may result in maladaptive behaviour. Given the susceptibility of the orbitofrontal cortex in TBI, it was hypothesized that impaired perception and reactivity to socially-relevant information might be responsible for some of the social difficulties encountered after TBL Fifteen persons who sustained a moderate to severe brain injury were compared to age and education matched Control participants. In the first study, both groups were presented with photographs of models displaying the major emotions and either asked to identify the emotions or simply view the faces passively. In a second study, participants were asked to select cards from decks that varied in terms of how much money could be won or lost. Those decks with higher losses were considered to be high-risk decks. Electrodermal activity was measured concurrently in both situations. Relative to Controls, TBI participants were found to have difficulty identifying expressions of surprise, sadness, anger, and fear. TBI persons were also found to be under-reactive, as measured by electrodermal activity, while passively viewing slides of negative expressions. No group difference,in reactivity to high-risk card decks was observed. The ability to identify emotions in the face and electrodermal reactivity to faces and to high-risk decks in the card game were examined in relationship to social monitoring and empathy as described by family members or friends on the Brock Adaptive Functioning Questionnaire (BAFQ). Difficulties identifying negative expressions (i.e., sadness, anger, fear, and disgust) predicted problems in monitoring social situations. As well, a modest relationship was observed between hypo-arousal to negative faces and problems with social monitoring. Finally, hypo-arousal in the anticipation of risk during the card game related to problems in empathy. In summary, these data are consistent with the view that alterations in the ability to perceive emotional expressions in the face and the disruption in arousal to personally-relevant information may be accounting for some of the difficulties in social adaptation often observed in persons who have sustained a TBI. Furthermore, these data provide modest support for Damasio's Somatic Marker Theory in that physiological reactivity to socially-relevant information has some value in predicting social function. Therefore, the assessment of TBI persons, particularly those with adaptive behavioural problems, should be expanded to determine whether alterations in perception and reactivity to socially-relevant stimuli have occurred. When this is the case, rehabilitative strategies aimed more specifically at these difficulties should be considered.

The Elucidation of the involvement of endonuclease DNase y in reducing DNA transfection efficiency in mammalian cells

Gene therapy is predicated upon efficient gene transfer. While viral vectors are the method of choice for transformation efficiency, the immunogenicity and safety concerns remain problematic. Non-viral vectors, on the other hand, have shown high degrees of safety and are mostly non-immunogenic in nature. However, non-viral vectors usually suffer from low levels oftransformation efficiency and transgene expression. Thus, increasing transformation efficiency ofnon-viral vectors, in particular by calcium phosphate co-precipitation technique, is a way of generating a suitable vector for gene therapy and is the aim of this study. It is a long known fact that different cell lines have different transfection efficiencies regardless oftransfection methodology (Lin et a!., 1994). Using commonly available cell lines Madine-Darby Bovine Kidney (MDBK), HeLa and Human Embryonic Kidney (HEK-293), we have shown a decreasing trend ofDNase activity based on a plasmid digestion assay. From densitometry studies, as much as a 40% reduction in DNase activity was observed when comparing HEK-293 (least active) to MDBK (most active). Using various biochemical assays, it was determined that DNase y, in particular, was expressed more highly in MDBK cells than both HeLa and HEK-293. Upon cloning of the bovine DNase y gene, we utilized the sequence information to construct antisense expressing plasmids via both traditional antisense RNA (pASDGneoM) and siRNA (psiRNA-S4, psiRNA-S11 and psiRNA-S16). For the construction ofpASDGneoM, the 3' end of the DNase y was inserted in opposite orientation under a cytomegalovirus (CMV) promoter such that the expression ofRNA complementary to the DNase 2 ymRNA occurred. For siRNA plasmids, the sequence was screened to yield optimal short sequences for siRNA inhibition. The silencing ofbovine DNase y led to an increase in transfection efficiency based on traditional calcium phosphate co-precipitation technique; stable clones of siRNA-producing MDBK cell lines (psiRNA-S4 Bland psiRNA-S4 B4) both demol).strated 4-fold increases in transfection efficiency. Furthermore, serial transfection of antisense DNase y plasmid pASDGneoM and reporter pCMV-~ showed a maximum of 8-fold increase in transfection efficiency when the two separate transfections were carried out 4 hours apart (i.e. transfection ofpASDGneoM, separated by four hours, then transfection ofpCMV-~). Together, these results demonstrate the involvement ofDNase y in reducing transfection efficiency, at least by traditional calcium phosphate technique.

For whom the cruiser rolls: a retrospective analysis of factors relating to recidivism in a sample of graduates from a court-ordered alcohol education and awareness program

This study investigated, retrospectively, whether recidivism in a sample of court-ordered'graduates of an alcohol education and awareness program could be predicted. This alcohol education program was based on adult education principles and was philosophically akin to the thoughts of Drs. Jack Mezirow, Stephen Brookfield, and Patricia Cranton. Data on the sample of 214 Halton IDEA (Impaired Driver Education and Awareness) graduates were entered into a spread sheet. Descriptive statistics were generated. Each of the 214 program graduates had taken several tests during the course of the IDEA program. These tests measured knowledge, attitude about impaired driving, and degree of alcohol involvement. Test scores were analyzed to determine whether those IDEA graduates who recidivated differed in any measurable way from those who had no further criminal convictions after a period of at least three years. Their criminal records were obtained from the Canadian Police Information Centre (CPIC). Those program graduates who reoffended were compared to the vast majority who did not reoffend. Results of the study indicated that there was no way to determine who would recidivate from the data that were collected. Further studies could use a qualitative model. Follow-up interviews could be used to determine what impact, if any, attendance at the IDEA program had on the life of the graduates.

Subjective, behavioural and electrophysiological measurements of the time-course and intensity of sleep inertia after a full night of sleep /

Several recent studies have described the period of impaired alertness and performance known as sleep inertia that occurs upon awakening from a full night of sleep. They report that sleep inertia dissipates in a saturating exponential manner, the exact time course being task dependent, but generally persisting for one to two hours. A number of factors, including sleep architecture, sleep depth and circadian variables are also thought to affect the duration and intensity. The present study sought to replicate their findings for subjective alertness and reaction time and also to examine electrophysiological changes through the use of event-related potentials (ERPs). Secondly, several sleep parameters were examined for potential effects on the initial intensity of sleep inertia. Ten participants spent two consecutive nights and subsequent mornings in the sleep lab. Sleep architecture was recorded for a fiiU nocturnal episode of sleep based on participants' habitual sleep patterns. Subjective alertness and performance was measured for a 90-minute period after awakening. Alertness was measured every five minutes using the Stanford Sleepiness Scale (SSS) and a visual analogue scale (VAS) of sleepiness. An auditory tone also served as the target stimulus for an oddball task designed to examine the NlOO and P300 components ofthe ERP waveform. The five-minute oddball task was presented at 15-minute intervals over the initial 90-minutes after awakening to obtain six measures of average RT and amplitude and latency for NlOO and P300. Standard polysomnographic recording were used to obtain digital EEG and describe the night of sleep. Power spectral analyses (FFT) were used to calculate slow wave activity (SWA) as a measure of sleep depth for the whole night, 90-minutes before awakening and five minutes before awakening.

The Informational Value of Corporate Credit Ratings

This thesis examines the quality of credit ratings issued by the three major credit rating agencies - Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch. If credit ratings are informative, then prices of underlying credit instruments such as fixed-income securities and credit default insurance should change to reflect the new credit risk information. Using data on 246 different major fixed income securities issuers and spanning January 2000 to December 2011, we find that credit default swaps (CDS) spreads do not react to changes in credit ratings. Hence credit ratings for all three agencies are not price informative. CDS prices are mostly determined by historical CDS prices while ratings are mostly determined by historical ratings. We find that credit ratings are marginally more sensitive to CDS than CDS are sensitive to ratings.