The waning of the two giants: the electoral decline of the Italian Christian Democratic Party and the Italian Communist Party

Italy is currently experiencing profound political change. One aspect of this change involves the decline in electoral support for the Italian Christian Democratic Party (DC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI), now the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS). Signs of the electoral decline of both parties began to appear in the late 1970s and early 1980s and accelerated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The pr imar y purpos e of th is thes is is to expla i n the electoral decline of the DC and PCI/PDS in the last decade. The central question being addressed in this thesis is the following: What factors contributed to the decline in electoral support for the DC and PCI? In addition, the thesis attempts to better comprehend the change in magni tude and direction of the Italian party system. The thesis examines the central question within an analytical framework that consists of models explaining electoral change in advanced industrial democracies and in Italy. A review of the literature on electoral change in Italy reveals three basic models: structural (socioeconomic and demographic factors), subcultural (the decline of the Catholic and Communist subcultures), and pol i tical (factors such as party strategy, and the crisis and collapse of communism in iv Eastern Europe and the former soviet Union and the end to the Cold War). Significant structural changes have occurred in Italy, but they do not invariably hurt or benefit either party. The Catholic and Communist subcultures have declined in size and strength, but only gradually. More importantly, the study discovers that the decline of communism and party strategy adversely affected the electoral performances of the DC and PC!. The basic conclusion is that political factors primarily and directly contributed to the decline in electoral support for both parties, while societal factors (structural and subcultural changes) played a secondary and indirect role. While societal factors do not contribute directly to the decline in electoral support for both parties, they do provide the context within which both parties operated. In addition, the Italian party system is becoming more fragmented and traditional political parties are losing electoral support to new political movements, such as the Lega Nord (LN-Northern League) and the Rete (Network). The growing importance of the North-South and centre-periphery cleavages suggests that the Italian party system, which is traditionally based on religious and ideological cleavages, may be changing.

National energy policies of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada in the 1970s and 1980s: are economic and/or environmental concerns responsible for change?

The thesis presents a comparison of the national energy policies of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada from 1973 until the late 1980s. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether economic and/or environmental concerns were responsible for changes in the· West-German and Canadian national energy policies. Furthermore, the feasibility of implementing a soft energy path in West-Germany and Canada is examined. For better comprehension of the policy-making process and implemented changes in the national energy policies of the two states, the West-German and Canadian parliamentary systems and the political cultures were compared. For the analysis, several events with international impact were taken as guidelines. Furthermore, based on statistical data, the West-German and Canadian energy production and consumption were analyzed. With reference to these results the degree of the de facto changes in the national energy policies were analyzed. In addition, the thesis discusses the possibilities which a soft energy path offers to both national governments to renounce themselves from the dependencies on a few energy resources. The thesis reveals that changes in the West-German and Canadian national energy policies, in their energy production and consumption are correlated to various world events. In particular, governmental reponses security of energy supply by the two international oil crises of 1973 and 1979/1980 demonstrate that changes in the West-German and Canadian national energy policies were implemented in reaction to economic concerns than environmental ones. With the policies "away from oil" and "off oil", the West-German and Canadian government implemented the i i substitution of oil through various diverse energy supply resources. However, energy savings concepts and policies were initiated through the first oil crisis in 1973. The world recessions in 1975 and 1982 had no 'profound impacts on the agenda of West-German and Canadian energy policies. As a consequence of the stagnation or the negative growth of the world economic market, changes in their energy production and consumption can be perceived. However, the West-German and Canadian energy production and consumption intensified with the augmentation of the world economy. During the period of study, environmental concerns were taken into account in the energy policy agendas of the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada but they were not of primary concern. wi thin the decade of. the 1980s notably more environmental considerations were taken into account in the energy policies of the two states. The two nuclear reactor accidents in 1979 and 1986 sharpened to various degrees West-German and Canadian public discourse of present energy supply mix and attitude towards energy production and consumption. The statistical data reflects yet no changes in the energy policies in regard to the position of nuclear power. However, in the next several years possible changes can be observed through statistical data, because the planning, the construction and possible phase out of nuclear power requires several years. Finally, the thesis reveals that the implementation of a soft energy path requires profound changes in the consumer behaviour. As several studies indicate, a soft energy path is technological and economically feasible for the Federal Republic of Germany and Canada, its implementation remains to be a political decision.

The People's Republic of China and her relations with the countries of the association of Southeast Asian nations : 1969-1975

Phe Ihesis examines the evolution of the -policies of the People fs Jtenublie of China towards J?hail°nd, PTal ysia, Singapore, Iidonesia pad the Philip-pines, organised in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations from 1969 to 1975• 2ze first central point of this study is an *ir sumption that the foreign relations of The People's Tepublic of Chi la Towards Southeast ^sia have been motivated by a dynamic interplay of t^o main factors: (1) Farxist-Leninist ideology and ICao J^e-tung Ph^ught, which dictate to China to behave as a revolutionary Dover vhich must assist the insurgent movements in the area in their strug fle to overthrow the local governments; (2) national interest, vhich demands of China to safeguard the southern flank of her territory bordering on Southerst 'sia through Friendly relations, trade and ot*»er conventional inrtniments of diplomacy. hile the tvo main motive factors are nuTually antagonistic and exclusivet the Chinere leaders are nevertheless at te mi ting to oring them iirco a coherent policy under Mao's theory of tve {hniity of op-nosites," vhich believes that it is -possible to reconcile these co-posing tendencies into a dynamic enuibrium through vhich both opnosites could be promoted at the same time although not to the same extent* la other words, the Chinese leaders conceive the dynamic equilibrium as a continuum between them in a mix in which one or the other orientation predominates in different •periods* Bins we might see China1 s conduct motivated in one period by mostly ideological considerations at the expense of the staire-to-state relations, then ve might see her policy in the middle of the continuum and suf ering from immo bill sine and just muddling through, or finally ?fe might see her emphasising friendly ties at the expense of support of revolutionary movements at the other extreme -point of the spectrum* !fhe mechanism vhich enables Peking to move from one pole to the other of the spectrum is activated by the following elementsJ (1) the result of an internal power struggle within the leadership in Peking between ideologically radical and moderate elements, which enables the victorious faction to initiate nev policies; (2) Peking's assessment of the changing intentions and capabilities of the major powers in the area; (3) internal changes within the countries of the area and the changing attitudes of their governments towards China; (4) changing fortunes of revolutionary movements operating in the area* 'Phe second major point of this study is an assertion that while China's conduct toward Southeast *lsia after her foundation in 1949 was primarily based upon ideological considerations, the beginning of the seventies saw the national interest reasserting itself as the leading motive factor* Thus China talks with her neighbours in Southeast asia in terms of relevance of fllong historical ties," casting herself into the role of a benevolent "older brother11 who is entitled to reopect and deference in exchange for patronage and protection* Hence the traditional echoes of the past are emerging ever stronger and influencing her postures towards the region, while the open support to revolutionary moevments is underplayed at the moment.