Baltimore Patriot and Evening Advertiser Vol. 3 No. 89- April 15, 1814

This daily paper, except Sundays, began publication on August 17, 1813 and ceased April 30, 1817. It was also published tri-weekly for a "COUNTRY" edition. The paper later became the Baltimore Patriot. Topics of interest include: Page 1: announcement Capt. M. Simmones Burnbury is seeking men to form a company of Sea Fencibles; Page 2: U.S. Legislature authorizes bill to increase the Marine Corps; U.S. Legislature authorizes bill to purchase vessels captured on Lake Erie; U.S. Senate bill authorizes the appointment of officers for the flotilla service; President of United States authorized to accept service of volunteer corps for defence of United States; Letter from Capt. A. H. Holmes to Lieut. Col. Butler detailing an American victory over the British near Detroit; announcement of British forces building barges for the purpose of attacking Detroit; War sloop Erie returns to Baltimore unable to reach sea due to British forces in the Chesapeake; Page 3: Death notice of Mr. Ward Fairchild of the U.S. Army; Page 4: Commander of the U.S. Flotilla seeks men for the Chesapeake Flotilla.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Portsmouth Oracle, 15 January 1814 (vol. 25, no. 17) - Newspaper

Volumes of interest were published between 1812 and 1815 with articles about the War of 1812. Issue for July 16, 1814 includes a long report on the capture of Fort Erie on the Canadian-U.S. frontier, also a prominent front page headline and a very long and detailed report of the capture of the U.S. frigate USS Essex.

Niagara from the distant Tower, U.S.A.

The image is described as "(7) Niagara and its great cloud of rising Spray - from the distant tower, U.S.A.".