Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.

The elderly : reminiscing, coping with loss, accepting death

This study investigated loss, death and dying, reminiscing, coping and the process of adaptation from the sUbjective perspective. A number of theories and models of death and dying were reviewed in the background literature search with the focus on reminiscing as a coping phenomenon. The format of the study was audio-taped interviews with ten sUbjects and the recording of their memories and reminiscing of life stories. The sUbjects were required to complete an initial questionnaire in a demographic data collection process. Two separate interviews consisted of a primary data collecting interview and a verification interview four to eight weeks later. An independent chart review completed the data collecting process. Data analysis was by the examination of the emerging themes in the subjects' personal narratives which revealed the sUb-categories of reminiscing, loss (including death and dying), acceptance, hope, love, despair and belief. Belief was shown to be the foundation and the base for living and reminiscing. Reminiscing was found to be a coping phenomenon, within the foundation of a belief system. Both living and reminiscing revealed the existence of a central belief or value with a great deal of importance attached to it. Whether the belief was of a spiritual nature, a value of marriage, tradition, a work ethic or belief in an abstract value such as fate,it gave support and control to the individuals' living and reminiscing process. That which caused despair or allowed acceptance indicated the sUbjects' basic belief and was identified in the story narrations. The findings were significant to health care in terms of education, increased dignity for the elderly and better understanding by society. The profiles represented an average age of 86.3 years with age showing no bearing on the life experiences associated with the emerging themes. Overwhelmingly, belief was shown to be the foundation in reminiscing. A Judeo-Christian cultural value base supported the belief in 90% of the sUbjects; however, different beliefs were clearly shown indicating that belief is central to all thinking beings, in everyday life and in reminiscing. Belief was not necessarily spiritual or a practised or verbalized religion. It was shown to be a way of understanding, a fundamental and single thread tying the individual's life and stories together. The benefits were the outcomes, in that knowledge of an individual's belief can optimize care planning for any age group, and/or setting. The strength of the study was the open question format and the feedback process of data verification. The unrestricted outcomes and non-specificity were significant in a world where dying is everybody's business.

Hot cognition and activation of the medial prefrontal cortex: Self-regulating in contexts involving motivational pressures

The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) is involved in performance-monitoring and has been implicated in the generation of several electrocortical responses associated with self-regulation. The error-related negativity (ERN), the inhibitory Nogo N2 (N2), and the feedback-related negativity (FRN) are event-related potential (ERP) components which reflect mPFC activity associated with feedback to behavioural (ERN, N2) and environmental (FRN) consequences. Our main goal was to determine whether or not rnPFC activation varies as a function of motivational context (e.g., those involving performance-related incentives) or the use of internally versus externally generated feedback signals (i.e., errors). Additionally, we assessed medial prefrontal activity in relation to individual differences in personality and temperament. Participants completed a combination of tasks in which performance-related incentives were associated with task performance and feedback generated from internal versus external responses. MPFC activity was indexed using both ERP scalp voltage peaks and intracerebral current source density (CSD) of dorsal and ventral regions. Additionally, participants completed several questionnaires assessing personality and temperament styles. Given previous studies have shown that enhanced mPFC activity to loss (or negative) feedback, we expected that activity in the mPFC would generally be greater during the Loss condition relative to the Win condition for both the ERN and N2. Also, due to the evidence that the (vmPFC) is engaged in arousing contexts, we hypothesized that activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) would be greater than activity in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), especially in the Loss condition of the GoNogo task (ERN). Similarly, loss feedback in the BART (FRN) was expected to engage the vmPFC more than the dmPFC. Finally, we predicted that persons rating themselves as more willing to engage in approach-related behaviours or to exhibit rigid cognitive styles would show reduced activity of the mPFC. Overall, our results emphasize the role of affective evaluations of behavioural and environmental consequences when self-regulating. Although there were no effects of context on brain activity, our data indicate that, during the time of the ERN and N2 on the MW Go-Nogo task and the FRN on the BART, the vrnPFC was more active compared to the dmPFC. Moreover, regional recruitment in the mPFC was similar across internally (ERN) and externally (FRN) generated errors signals associated with loss feedback, as reflected by relatively greater activity in the vmPFC than the dmPFC. Our data also suggest that greater activity in the mPFC is associated with better inhibitory control, as reflected by both scalp and CSD measures. Additionally, deactivation of the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (sgACC) and lower levels of self-reported positive affect were both related to increased voluntary risk-taking on the BART. Finally, persons reporting higher levels of approach-related behaviour or cognitive rigidity showed reduced activity of the mPFC. These results are in line with previous research emphasizing that affect/motivation is central to the processes reflected by mediofrontal negativities (MFNs), that the vmPFC is involved in regulating demands on motivational/affective systems, and that the underlying mechanisms driving these functions vary across both individuals and contexts.

CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC PALEOCEANOGRAPHY DURING THE MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE (ca. 726–603 ka): INSIGHTS FROM THE DINOFLAGELLATE CYST RECORD

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1313, located at the northern boundary of the subtropical gyre in the central North Atlantic, lies within the southern part of the ice-rafted debris belt. Seventy-three palynological samples were studied from an uninterrupted interval ca. 726–603 ka (upper Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 18 through lower MIS 15) to resolve conflicting paleoceanographic interpretations. Glacial stages were characterized by high productivity surface waters reflecting a southward shift of the Arctic Front. Sea surface salinities (SSSs) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were obtained by transfer functions using the Modern Analogue Technique. The lowest SSTs of 9ºC (±1.3) and 10ºC (±1.3) were recorded in glacial MIS 16 and MIS 18 respectively. However, these reconstructions are influenced by abundant heterotrophic taxa and may reflect elevated nutrient levels rather than lowered temperatures. Reworked palynomorphs uniquely indicate a Cretaceous as well as Paleozoic provenance for the first Heinrich-like events.