Decision analysis of the effectiveness of lung cancer screening using autofluorescence bronchoscopy and computed tomography

Background: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in the developed world. Most cancers are associated with tobacco smoking. A primary hope for reducing lung cancer has been prevention of smoking and successful smoking cessation programs. To date, these programs have not been as successful as anticipated. Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether lung cancer screening combining low dose computed tomography with autofluorescence bronchoscopy (combined CT & AFB) is superior to CT or AFB screening alone in improving lung cancer specific survival. In addition, the extent of improvement and ideal conditions for combined CT & AFB screening were evaluated. Methods: We applied decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation modeling using TreeAge Software to evaluate our study aims. Histology- and stage specific probabilities of lung cancer 5-year survival proportions were taken from Surveillance and Epidemiologic End Results (SEER) Registry data. Screeningassociated data was taken from the US NCI Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO), National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), and US NCI Lung Screening Study (LSS), other relevant published data and expert opinion. Results: Decision Analysis - Combined CT and AFB was the best approach at Improving 5-year survival (Overall Expected Survival (OES) in the entire screened population was 0.9863) and in lung cancer patients only (Lung Cancer Specific Expected Survival (LOSES) was 0.3256). Combined screening was slightly better than CT screening alone (OES = 0.9859; LCSES = 0.2966), and substantially better than AFB screening alone (OES = 0.9842; LCSES = 0.2124), which was considerably better than no screening (OES = 0.9829; LCSES = 0.1445). Monte Carlo simulation modeling revealed that expected survival in the screened population and lung cancer patients is highest when screened using CT and combined CT and AFB. CT alone and combined screening was substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening. For LCSES, combined CT and AFB screening is significantly better than CT alone (0.3126 vs. 0.2938, p< 0.0001). Conclusions: Overall, these analyses suggest that combined CT and AFB is slightly better than CT alone at improving lung cancer survival, and both approaches are substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening.

Exploring the Influence of Female Friendships on Decisions to Discuss the Breast Self-Exam in Young Adult Women

The breast self-exam (BSE) has been an important method for detection of breast cancer, especially in women under the age of 40. This study used grounded theory to explore the possible influence of female friendships on young women’s decisions regarding BSE. Conversations with six women in their 20s and 30s revealed that discussion of BSE is an exceptional conversation facilitated by the female friendship “safe zone” and a germinal event. Without being prompted by a germinal event, such as a health scare, it is generally considered to be an unnecessary conversation about private matters and viewed as out of the ordinary, especially for low-risk women. This conversation most easily occurs within the female friendship “safe zone” that develops through the body in common, a sense of trust, and private information sharing. Implications include peer mentoring for sharing and educating women and healthcare professionals on conditions that facilitate the exceptional conversation.

Associations Between Personal Cancer History and Lung Cancer Risk

The study aim was to investigate the relationship between factors related to personal cancer history and lung cancer risk as well as assess their predictive utility. Characteristics of interest included the number, anatomical site(s), and age of onset of previous cancer(s). Data from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Screening (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial (N = 154,901) and National Lung Screening Trial (N = 53,452) were analysed. Logistic regression models were used to assess the relationships between each variable of interest and 6-year lung cancer risk. Predictive utility was assessed through changes in area-under-the-curve (AUC) after substitution into the PLCOall2014 lung cancer risk prediction model. Previous lung, uterine and oral cancers were strongly and significantly associated with elevated 6-year lung cancer risk after controlling for confounders. None of these refined measures of personal cancer history offered more predictive utility than the simple (yes/no) measure already included in the PLCOall2014 model.

Predicting the Risk of Lung Cancer in Never-smokers

Despite being considered a disease of smokers, approximately 10-15% of lung cancer cases occur in never-smokers. Lung cancer risk prediction models have demonstrated excellent ability to discriminate cases from non-cases, and have been shown to be more efficient at selecting individuals for future screening than current criteria. Existing models have primarily been developed in populations of smokers, thus there was a need to develop an accurate model in never-smokers. This study focused on developing and validating a model using never-smokers from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Cox regression analysis, with six-year follow-up, was used for model building. Predictors included: age, body mass index, education level, personal history of cancer, family history of lung cancer, previous chest X-ray, and secondhand smoke exposure. This model achieved fair discrimination (optimism corrected c-statistic = 0.6645) and good calibration. This represents an improvement on existing neversmoker models, but is not suitable for individual-level risk prediction.

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.

The lived experience of women with recurrent ovarian cancer /

The purpose of this study was to understand the Hved experience of 6 women with recurrent ovarian cancer. Six women were interviewed 2-20 weeks after the recurrence of their ovarian cancer. Interview questions focused on the meaning of the recurrence and their communication with others. Women were asked about the information and support that they felt they needed at that time, van Manen's method of reflection and writing guided the inquiry. Analysis of the data revealed the themes of: my cancer is back; it means that I will die; talking about it; we are people, we are not a disease; information; and life has changed/life hasn't changed. This study revealed the perspectives of these 6 women with recurrent ovarian cancer. It provided an understanding and knowledge about the lives of these women. Future research should explore the experiences of a larger group of women with recurrent ovarian cancer in order to address their unique needs.

Evaluation of a stage II screening protocol for prostate cancer

In 2003, prostate cancer (PCa) is estimated to be the most commonly diagnosed cancer and third leading cause of cancer death in Canada. During PCa population screening, approximately 25% of patients with a normal digital rectal examination (DRE) and intermediate serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) level have PCa. Since all patients typically undergo biopsy, it is expected that approximately 75% of these procedures are unnecessary. The purpose of this study was to compare the degree of efficacy of clinical tests and algorithms in stage II screening for PCa while preventing unnecessary biopsies from occurring. The sample consisted of 201 consecutive men who were suspected of PCa based on the results of a DRE and serum PSA. These men were referred for venipuncture and transrectal ultrasound (TRUS). Clinical tests included TRUS, agespecific reference range PSA (Age-PSA), prostate specific antigen density (PSAD), and free-to-total prostate specific antigen ratio (%fPSA). Clinical results were evaluated individually and within algorithms. Cutoffs of 0.12 and 0.15 ng/ml/cc were employed for PSAD. Cutoffs that would provide a minimum sensitivity of 0.90 and 0.95, respectively were utilized for %fPSA. Statistical analysis included ROC curve analysis, calculated sensitivity (Sens), specificity (Spec), and positive likelihood ratio (LR), with corresponding confidence intervals (Cl). The %fPSA, at a 23% cutoff ({ Sens=0.92; CI, 0.06}, {Spec=0.4l; CI, 0.09}, {LR=1.56; CI, O.ll}), proved to be the most efficacious independent clinical test. The combination of PSAD (cutoff 0.15 ng/ml/cc) and %fPSA (cutoff 23%) ({Sens=0.93; CI, 0.06}, {Spec=0.38; CI, 0.08}, {LR=1.50; CI, 0.10}) was the most efficacious clinical algorithm. This study advocates the use of %fPSA at a cutoff of 23% when screening patients with an intermediate serum PSA and benign DRE.

Factors affecting treatment decision making for women with breast cancer

This study examined the factors affecting treatment decision making for young women with early stage breast cancer. Thirty women, aged 35 to 52 years, were presented information about two equally effective chemotherapy treatments following surgery for breast cancer using an educational instrument called a "decision board." Although equally effective, the treatments differ with regards to side effects and treatment schedule. The purpose of this research was to investigate what factors affect the decision-making process. Following administration of the decision board, women were given a take-home version to review and asked to return one to two weeks later with a decision, at which time they completed a questionnaire. theoretical framework for this study was constructed from the literature on self-directed learning and critical thinking. The Overall, the factors rated most important to the treatment decision were related to quality of life, side effects, and length of treatment. Five factors were found to be rated significantly different by the women who chose one treatment versus the other in terms of importance to their decision. These were side effects in general, vomiting, hair loss, family role, and the number of trips to the cancer centre required for treatment.Implications and recommendations for patient education, research, and practice evolved from the findings of this study.