Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Ontario Federation of Agriculture records, 1974-1984

The Ontario Federation of Agriculture was established in 1936 and is the largest voluntary farm organization in Canada, representing 37,000 farm families. The Federation came about in response to the creation of the Canadian Chamber of Agriculture (later renamed the Canadian Federation of Agriculture) in 1935. The establishment of an Ontario branch was needed to provide a forum through which similar organizations from other provinces could communicate about farm issues that were of interprovincial, national, or international importance. The organization is led by farmers and is based in Guleph, Ontario. Their missionis to enable prosperous and sustainable farms. They accomplish this through lobbying, government and media relations, and community representation.