Decision analysis of the effectiveness of lung cancer screening using autofluorescence bronchoscopy and computed tomography

Background: Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in the developed world. Most cancers are associated with tobacco smoking. A primary hope for reducing lung cancer has been prevention of smoking and successful smoking cessation programs. To date, these programs have not been as successful as anticipated. Objective: The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether lung cancer screening combining low dose computed tomography with autofluorescence bronchoscopy (combined CT & AFB) is superior to CT or AFB screening alone in improving lung cancer specific survival. In addition, the extent of improvement and ideal conditions for combined CT & AFB screening were evaluated. Methods: We applied decision analysis and Monte Carlo simulation modeling using TreeAge Software to evaluate our study aims. Histology- and stage specific probabilities of lung cancer 5-year survival proportions were taken from Surveillance and Epidemiologic End Results (SEER) Registry data. Screeningassociated data was taken from the US NCI Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO), National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), and US NCI Lung Screening Study (LSS), other relevant published data and expert opinion. Results: Decision Analysis - Combined CT and AFB was the best approach at Improving 5-year survival (Overall Expected Survival (OES) in the entire screened population was 0.9863) and in lung cancer patients only (Lung Cancer Specific Expected Survival (LOSES) was 0.3256). Combined screening was slightly better than CT screening alone (OES = 0.9859; LCSES = 0.2966), and substantially better than AFB screening alone (OES = 0.9842; LCSES = 0.2124), which was considerably better than no screening (OES = 0.9829; LCSES = 0.1445). Monte Carlo simulation modeling revealed that expected survival in the screened population and lung cancer patients is highest when screened using CT and combined CT and AFB. CT alone and combined screening was substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening. For LCSES, combined CT and AFB screening is significantly better than CT alone (0.3126 vs. 0.2938, p< 0.0001). Conclusions: Overall, these analyses suggest that combined CT and AFB is slightly better than CT alone at improving lung cancer survival, and both approaches are substantially better than AFB screening alone or no screening.

Epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2003 /

Since the discovery of West Nile (WN) virus in the Western Hemisphere many surveillance programs have been implemented to monitor the epidemiology and genetic variation of WN virus in North America. This project was based on the WN virus Adult Mosquito Identification and Diagnostic Program conducted at Brock University for Ontario, Canada, during the 2002 and 2003 transmission seasons. There are three sections to this thesis. The first section investigated which mosquito species carry WN virus in Ontario, Canada throughout the 2002-2003 transmission seasons. It was found that from the 2002 data, eight mosquito species were detected with WN virus (Aedes vexans, Anopheles punctipennis, Coquilleltidia perlurbans, Culex salinarius, Cx. pipiens, Cx. resluans, Ochlerolalus Irivillalus and Och. Iriserialus) and 7.19% of the total mosquito pools tested were found to be WN virus positive (129 positive poolsll, 793 total pools tested). In 2003, WN virus was detected in only five mosquito species (Ae. vexans, Cx. salinarius, Och. Iriserialus, Cx. pipiens and Cx. resluans) and 1.42% of the total mosquito pools tested were WN virus positive (101 positive poolsl7,1 01 total pools tested). WN virus positive mosquito pools were detected 3-4 weeks earlier in 2002 compared to 2003 data. The second section investigated the actual infection rate (IR) of clearly identified Cx. pipiens and Cx. resluans from the 2002 outbreak. It was found that significantly more ex. resluans were infected with WN virus compared to ex. pipiens. The third section investigated the degree of variability of the WN virus genome. A 879 nucleotide section of the WN virus genome was amplified from 21 American Crows and 20 adult female mosquitoes from Ontario, Canada, and compared to the homologous region of the original New York 1999 Chilean Flamingo sequence (NY99FL). Seventy-two nucleotides from Ontario WN virus sequences showed variability compared to NY99FL with 10 synapotypic changes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a close relationship between Ontario and US WN virus sequences.