Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.

Indenture (vellum) Land Sold by John Fink and Polly Fink to Jacob Cross

Indenture (vellum) regarding land sold by John Fink and Polly Fink of Clinton Township to Jacob Cross of Clifton Township. The land includes 100 acres in Lot no. 9 in the 4th Concession in the Township of Clinton - instrument no. 6543, May 27, 1818.

Indenture of Land Sold by John Robertson to John Jackson

Indenture regarding land sold by John Robertson of Niagara to John Jackson of Niagara. This transaction is for part of Lot no. 93 in Niagara Township. This document was registered in the Lincoln and Haldimand Registry on September 10, 1823 in Book J folio 322 - instrument no. 6357. Date of transaction was May 5, 1823.

Indenture between David Secord and John Jackson

Indenture between David Secord of Niagara Township and John Jackson of Niagara Township regarding the sale of part of Lot no. 90 situated in St. Davids, June 10, 1825.

Indenture for Partition Wall between William Woodruff and John Plimpton

Indenture regarding an agreement for a partition wall between William Woodruff and John Plimpton, June 24, 1829.

Indenture between John Baptist Clement and William Woodruff

Indenture of bargain and sale between John Baptist Clement of Niagara and William Woodruff of St. Davids for part of Lot no. 90 in St. Davids. Instrument no. 9050, February 23, 1833.

Indenture of Bond from William Woodruff to John Moir

Indenture regarding a bond from William Woodruff of St. Davids that he is bound to John Moir of the Township of London for six hundred pounds to be paid to Mr. Moir for a lot of land in the Township of Nissouri in the township of Middlesex, Lot no. 34, Concession no. 2, July 6, 1853.

Indenture between Gilbert Anderson, Phoebe Anderson and John Picard

Indenture of bargain and sale between Gilbert Anderson the younger of the Township of Niagara and Phoebe Anderson (his wife) and John Picard of the Township of Niagara. The instrument no. is 6268. April 14, 1855.

Indenture between John Picard and Peter Servos

Indenture of mortgage in fee between John Picard of the Township of Niagara and Peter Servos of the Township of Niagara regrading part of Lot no. 113 in the Township of Niagara - instrument no. 6269. This is listed in book B, folio 33, August 17, 1855.

Indenture between Robert Loring and John Conolly

Indenture of bargain and sale between Robert Loring of Toronto and John Connolly of St. Catharines for lot no. 8 in the 12th concession of Durham. The instrument no. is 24283, January 28, 1861.

Indenture between George Boomer and Fanny Caroline Boomer to John Stannage

Indenture of bargain and sale between George Boomer and Fanny Caroline Boomer of Toronto to John Stannage of St. Catharines regarding 5 acres in Lot no. 13 in the 3rd Concession of Crowland. November 21, 1862.

Indenture between Henry and Mary Ellen Rogers and John Young

Indenture of bargain and sale between Henry and Mary Ellen Rogers of the Township of Niagara and John Young of the Township of Niagara regarding part of Lot no. 113 in the Township of Niagara - instrument no. 15071. Registered in the County of Lincoln on January 16, 1865 in Book C, folio 344, January 13, !865.

Indenture between John Young and Jane Young to Margaret Ellen Rogers

Indenture of bargain and sale between John Young and Jane Young of Stamford Township to Margaret Ellen Rogers the wife of Henry Rogers of Stamford regarding part of Lot no. 113 in the Township of Niagara. This was registered in the Lincoln County Register on March 31, 1869 - instrument no. 274.

Indenture between Owen Clifford and Margaret Clifford to John Charles Rykert and William B. Gilleland

Indenture of mortgage deed between Owen Clifford and Margaret Clifford of the Township of Grantham to John Charles Rykert and William B. Gilleland of St. Catharines regarding parts of Lots no. 10 and 11 in the 9th Concession of the Township of Grantham. Registered in the Township of Grantham Register on September 15, 1870 - instrument no. 804 and registered in the Township of Grantham Register of February 8, 1872 - instrument no. 1104, September 15, 1870.

Sketch of John Gibson Brick Building

Sketch of John Gibson brick building and adjoining lots. This is a hand drawn sketch, n.d.