Macroeconomic News Effects and Foreign Exchange Jumps

This thesis investigates how macroeconomic news announcements affect jumps and cojumps in foreign exchange markets, especially under different business cycles. We use 5-min interval from high frequency data on Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov. 1, 2004 to Feb. 28, 2015. The jump detection method was proposed by Andersen et al. (2007c), Lee & Mykland (2008) and then modified by Boudt et al. (2011a) for robustness. Then we apply the two-regime smooth transition regression model of Teräsvirta (1994) to explore news effects under different business cycles. We find that scheduled news related to employment, real activity, forward expectations, monetary policy, current account, price and consumption influences forex jumps, but only FOMC Rate Decisions has consistent effects on cojumps. Speeches given by major central bank officials near a crisis also significantly affect jumps and cojumps. However, the impacts of some macroeconomic news are not the same under different economic states.

Macroeconomic News and LOB in Foreign Exchange ECN Market

We investigate the macroeconomic news effect on the dynamics of the limit order books (LOB) for euro-dollar ECN market in different economic states between Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2009. Using a VAR-STR model on the news surprise, pure news, aggregated good and bad news, we show that news effects on the LOB dynamics vary in different states of economy. The LOB dynamics are measured by depth, spread, slope and volatility. In contract to slope and volatility, depth and spread strongly respond to news surprise and pure news during recession and expansion. These characteristics are more affected by aggregated good and bad news during expansion. News effects are robust to alternative characteristic measures, the different sides of the LOB and the different levels in the LOB.

Certificate for One Share of Capital Stock in Nicola Valley Coal and Coke Company

Certificate for 1 share of capital stock in Nicola Valley Coal and Coke Company to Welland D. Woodruff, May 13, 1905.

Certificate for Twenty-One Shares of Capital Stock in Nicola Valley Coal and Coke Company

Certificate for 21 shares of capital stock in Nicola Valley Coal and Coke Company to Welland D. Woodruff, Oct. 16, 1905.

Certificate for One Thousand Shares of Capital Stock in Lincoln-Nipissing Development Co. Ltd.

Certificate for 1,000 shares of capital stock in Lincoln-Nipissing Development Co. Ltd. to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Feb. 21, 1907.

Certificate for One Share of Capital Stock in St. Catharines Golf Club Ltd.

Certificate for 1 share of capital stock in St. Catharines Golf Club Ltd. to Dr. Thos. Woodruff, April 15, 1911.

Certificate for One Share of Capital Stock in the Lincoln County Greater Production Company

Certificate for 1 share of capital stock in the Lincoln County Greater Production Company to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Jan. 20, 1919.

Certificate for Six Shares of Capital Stock in Gove Motor Car Company, Detroit, Michigcan

Certificate for 6 shares of common capital stock in Gove Motor Car Company, Detroit, Michigan to Hamilton K. Woodruff, June 13, 1921.

Certificate for Two Shares of Preferred Capital Stock in Gove Motor Car Company, Detroit, Michigan

Certificate for 2 shares of preferred capital stock in Gove Motor Car Company, Detroit, Michigan to Hamilton K. Woodruff, June 13, 1921.

Certificate for Two Shares of Capital Stock in The Henley Aquatic Association Limited

Certificate for 2 shares of capital stock in Henley Aquatic Association Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Oct. 15, 1921.

Certificate for Sixty Shares of Capital Stock in High Pressure Oil and Gas Syndicate, Limited

Certificate for 60 shares of capital stock in High Pressure Oil and Gas Syndicate, Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Nov. 1, 1922.

Certificate for Five Shares of Common Stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited

Certificate for 5 shares of common stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, April 10, 1923.

Certificate for Ten Shares of Accumulative Preference Capital Stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited

Certificate for 10 shares of accumulative preference capital stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, April 10, 1923.

Certificate for Twenty Shares of Accumulative Preference Capital Stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited

Certificate for 20 shares of accumulative preference capital stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, April 14, 1923.

Certificate for Twenty-Five Shares of Common Stock in Lincoln Manufacturing Company, Limited

Certificate for 25 shares of common in Lincoln Manufacturing Company Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, April 14, 1923.