Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Taxpayers Coalition Niagara fonds

Taxpayers Coalition Niagara (TCN) was founded and incorporated in 1990 in response to the increasing tax burden faced by citizens, and the sometimes questionable use of taxpayers’ money by the government. Originally founded as the Committee for Responsible Government, the name was changed to Taxpayers Coalition Niagara in order to facilitate membership in a similar provincial organization, Taxpayers Coalition Ontario. The non-partisan Coalition was comprised of businessmen from St. Catharines, with Frank Sheehan as President. The objectives of the Coalition included individual freedom and responsibility; obtaining maximum value for tax dollars; identifying and exposing irresponsible government policy and practice; the reduction of debt at all levels of government; the elimination of wasteful and unnecessary programmes; encouraging elected officials to regain control of their bureaucracies; and discouraging ‘empire building’ within local government. Early in 1991, the Coalition began advertising for members and financial support, receiving $11 000 from 1100 supporters. The membership consisted of both businesses and private citizens, eventually reaching 3500 members. The Coalition formed several committees, each one responsible for monitoring a public sector, such as municipal councils, school boards, police services and regional council. The Coalition worked towards achieving their objectives through presentations given to these groups by the committee leaders, as well as through ‘letters to the Editor’ and advertisements in local newspapers. Frank Sheehan resigned as President in 1995, in order to run as a Conservative candidate in the Provincial election. In June 1995, Charles Atkinson was elected President. The recent election of the Conservative government (led by Mike Harris) resulted in the expectation that many of the Coalition’s objectives would be achieved by the newly elected government. Accordingly, it was decided that the organization would operate in a reduced capacity. The Coalition was terminated in April, 2003, after several years of little or no activity.

Gala Performance on the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting Programme

The programme from the Gala Performance on the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, 7 August 1973. The event took place in the Opera of the National Arts Centre in Ottawa.

Letter from the Private Secretary of the Government House at York to William Woodruff

Letter (printed) from the private secretary of the Government House at York to William Woodruff, inviting him to attend a private meeting of the provincial legislature to dispatch public business, Dec. 10, 1828.

Letter to the Welland Canal Office from Welland Woodruff, Government Director of the Welland Canal Company

Letter to the Welland Canal Office from Welland Woodruff, Government Director of the Welland Canal Company in which he dissents from giving an extension of time to the St. Catharines Water Power Company to extend the lease of water from this time. This is a copy of the original, March 11, 1837.