Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Gala Performance on the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting Programme

The programme from the Gala Performance on the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, 7 August 1973. The event took place in the Opera of the National Arts Centre in Ottawa.

Letter from the Private Secretary of the Government House at York to William Woodruff

Letter (printed) from the private secretary of the Government House at York to William Woodruff, inviting him to attend a private meeting of the provincial legislature to dispatch public business, Dec. 10, 1828.

List of Employees to be involved in the extension of the Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway

List of Employees to be involved in the extension of the Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway (1 page, handwritten). This is signed by S.D. Woodruff, Nov. 25, 1856.

Letter to the Welland Canal Office from Welland Woodruff, Government Director of the Welland Canal Company

Letter to the Welland Canal Office from Welland Woodruff, Government Director of the Welland Canal Company in which he dissents from giving an extension of time to the St. Catharines Water Power Company to extend the lease of water from this time. This is a copy of the original, March 11, 1837.