3 resultados para Darfur (2003 to 2008)

em REPOSITORIO DIGITAL IMARPE - INSTITUTO DEL MAR DEL PERÚ, Peru


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El objetivo fue determinar la variación batimétrica y temporal de la composición funcional por gremios tróficos del grupo Poliquetos. Se colectaron muestras de macrobentos e información oceanográfica en tres estaciones ubicadas en la bahía (BH, 35 m), plataforma interna (PI, 65 m) y plataforma externa (PE, 117 m), de febrero 2003 a octubre 2008. Los resultados indicaron que la variabilidad estacional está sujeta a cambios de mayor escala, como el incremento de la producción primaria en primavera y verano, posibilitando un aumento de los depositívoros superficiales (SDF) en la BH durante primavera, por efecto de la acumulación de materia orgánica fitoplanctónica que llega al fondo. Asimismo, la disminución de los depositívoros superficiales (SDF) y el aumento de los suspensívoros (SF) en verano, en la BH y PI, se pueden explicar debido al incremento de la descarga de partículas terrígenas de origen vegetal, que afectan físicamente al sustrato. En tanto, los consumidores de interfaz (IF) que dominaron en verano/otoño en la PE, donde la influencia continental es menor, pueden haber sido favorecidos por la mayor calidad de flujo acumulado de fitodetritus en los sedimentos y a un menor contenido de OD, lo cual disminuyó quizás la presión por predación y competencia.

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This work represents an original contribution to the methodology for ecosystem models' development as well as the rst attempt of an end-to-end (E2E) model of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE). The main purpose of the developed model is to build a tool for ecosystem-based management and decision making, reason why the credibility of the model is essential, and this can be assessed through confrontation to data. Additionally, the NHCE exhibits a high climatic and oceanographic variability at several scales, the major source of interannual variability being the interruption of the upwelling seasonality by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has direct e ects on larval survival and sh recruitment success. Fishing activity can also be highly variable, depending on the abundance and accessibility of the main shery resources. This context brings the two main methodological questions addressed in this thesis, through the development of an end-to-end model coupling the high trophic level model OSMOSE to the hydrodynamics and biogeochemical model ROMS-PISCES: i) how to calibrate ecosystem models using time series data and ii) how to incorporate the impact of the interannual variability of the environment and shing. First, this thesis highlights some issues related to the confrontation of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration of ecosystem models. We propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria along with the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. Additionally, a new Evolutionary Algorithm designed for the calibration of stochastic models (e.g Individual Based Model) and optimized for maximum likelihood estimation has been developed and applied to the calibration of the OSMOSE model to time series data. The environmental variability is explicit in the model: the ROMS-PISCES model forces the OSMOSE model and drives potential bottom-up e ects up the foodweb through plankton and sh trophic interactions, as well as through changes in the spatial distribution of sh. The latter e ect was taken into account using presence/ absence species distribution models which are traditionally assessed through a confusion matrix and the statistical metrics associated to it. However, when considering the prediction of the habitat against time, the variability in the spatial distribution of the habitat can be summarized and validated using the emerging patterns from the shape of the spatial distributions. We modeled the potential habitat of the main species of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem using several sources of information ( sheries, scienti c surveys and satellite monitoring of vessels) jointly with environmental data from remote sensing and in situ observations, from 1992 to 2008. The potential habitat was predicted over the study period with monthly resolution, and the model was validated using quantitative and qualitative information of the system using a pattern oriented approach. The nal ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE E2E ecosystem model for the NHCE was calibrated using our evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to t monthly time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. To conclude, some potential applications of the model for shery management are presented and their limitations and perspectives discussed.

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El lenguado de ojo grande Hippoglossina macrops es un recurso potencial poco estudiado. Tiene una amplia distribución latitudinal (3°S-8°S) y batimétrica (90-380 m de profundidad). Para determinar la escala de madurez gonadal, se analizaron 570 ovarios colectados en los Cruceros de Evaluación de Recursos Demersales de los años 2003 al 2007. Se determinó seis estadios de madurez gonadal: 0 (virginal), I (reposo), II (en maduración), III (maduro), IV (desovante), V (recuperación), los que permiten conocer con mayor certeza, la condición reproductiva de las hembras de esta especie y su principal periodo de reproducción.