Possible worlds : the idea of happiness in the utopian vision of Louis-Sébastien Mercier

Doctoral dissertation, University of Turku

Windows into other worlds

Book review.

Moskovan nykytaiteen biennaali Rewriting Worlds, Special Projects Wrong Address

Kuraattorit Anna-Kaisa Rastenberger ja Tero Puha, Biennaalin pääkuraattori Peter Weibel

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

State of logistics and transport in the Baltic Sea region in 2025

The world’s pace of change is accelerating and new innovations, inventions and technologies come about every day. Change is unavoidable. It is difficult to keep up and even more difficult to prepare for the future. Even though it is not possible to know exactly what will happen in the future, by studying futures people can better anticipate what might lie ahead. By making decisions and realizing the consequences of their choices today, people and governments are able to actively decide how they will act in the future. Both opportunities and pitfalls lie ahead, which encourages actors to make more farsighted decisions. The Baltic Sea region is an interesting area for futures studies. It comprises 11 nations and more than 100 million inhabitants and entails countries with advanced, high-income economies, like Finland, Germany and Denmark, and developing economies, like Russia, Latvia and Lithuania. The western, eastern, northern and southern parts of the region are separated by the Baltic Sea, which at the same time represents a barrier and a facility for trade and travel between the countries belonging to the region The purpose of this study was to uncover the most probable future of transport and logistics in the Baltic Sea region in 2025 by using the Delphi method. Altogether 109 responses were collected in two separate instances from experts in all the Baltic Sea region countries, 56 of whom were defined as academic respondents and 53 of whom business respondents. Only minor differences in the opinions of academic and business experts were discovered, and the larger differences lie between eastern and western response groups. The Baltic Sea region is a very heterogeneous region and the division is clearest between East and West, which differ in political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects. The probable future of the Baltic Sea region presented in this study is coherent with previous studies on the same subject. The future of the Baltic Sea region in terms of logistics and transport looks quite bright according to the experts who participated in the study. Trade volumes will grow and the importance of logistics and transport to the competitiveness of the region will increase. Respondents from eastern countries seemed to be more optimistic about the future in general. Most differences between opinions could be explained by the gap in technological and infrastructural development between the East and West. As eastern countries are less-developed in some parts of their economies, it is easier for them to improve the technical condition of infrastructure by merely catching up with the western countries.

"Uusia sanoja, uusia maailmoja" : tekstuaalisuus, sosiaalisesti tuotettu tila ja maantieteen kulttuurinen käänne

English abstract: "New words, new worlds": textuality, socially constructed space and geography`s cultural turn