Periprocedural prognostic factors in coronary interventions – retrospective studies

Background: Approximately 11,000 revascularization procedures, either percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG), are performed yearly in Finland for coronary artery disease. Periprocedural risk factors for mortality and morbidity as well as long-term outcome have been extensively studied in general populations undergoing revascularization. Treatment choice between PCI and CABG in many high risk groups and risk-stratification, however, needs clarification and there is still room for improvement in periprocedural outcomes. Materials and methods: Cohorts of patients from Finnish hospitals revascularized between 2001 and 2011 were retrospectively analyzed. Patient records were reviewed for baseline variables and postprocedural outcomes (stroke, myocardial infarction, quality of life measured by the EQ-5D –questionnaire, repeat revascularization, bleeding episodes). Data on date and mode of death was acquired from Statistics Finland. Statistical analysis was performed to identify predictors of adverse events and compare procedures. Results: Postoperative administration of blood products (red blood cells, fresh frozen plasma, platelets) after isolated CABG independently and dose-dependently increases the risk of stroke. Patients 80 years or older who underwent CABG had better survival at 5 years compared to those who underwent PCI. After adjusting for baseline differences survival was similar. Patients on oral anticoagulation (OAC) for atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with CABG had better survival and overall outcome at 3 years compared to PCI patients. There was no difference in incidence of stroke or bleeding episodes. Differences in outcome remained significant after adjusting for propensity score. Lower health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores as measured by the visual analogue scale (VAS) of the EQ-5D questionnaire at 6 months after CABG predicted later major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). Deteriorating function and VAS scores between 0 and 6 months on the EQ-5D also independently predicted later MACCE. Conclusions: Administration of blood products can increase the risk of stroke after CABG and liberal use of transfusions should be avoided. In the frail subpopulations of patients on OAC and octogenarians CABG appears to offer superior long-term outcome as compared to PCI. Deteriorating HRQOL scores predict later adverse events after CABG. Keywords: percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, age over 80, transfusion, anticoagulants, coronary artery disease, health-related quality of life, outcome.

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of malaria

Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.

Molecular patterns behind immunological and metabolic alterations in lysinuric protein intolerance

Lysinuric protein intolerance (LPI) is a recessively inherited disorder characterised by reduced plasma and increased urinary levels of cationic amino acids (CAAs), protein malnutrition, growth failure and hyperlipidemia. Some patients develop severe immunological, renal and pulmonary complications. All Finnish patients share the same LPIFin mutation in the SLC7A7 gene that encodes CAA transporter y+LAT1. The aim of this study was to examine molecular factors contributing to the various symptoms, systemic metabolic and lipid profiles, and innate immune responses in LPI. The transcriptomes, metabolomes and lipidomes were analysed in whole-blood cells and plasma using RNA microarrays and gas or liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry techniques, respectively. Toll-like receptor (TLR) signalling in monocyte-derived macrophages exposed to pathogens was scrutinised using qRT-PCR and the Luminex technology. Altered levels of transcripts participating in amino acid transport, immune responses, apoptosis and pathways of hepatic and renal metabolism were identified in the LPI whole-blood cells. The patients had increased non-essential amino acid, triacylglycerol and fatty acid levels, and decreased plasma levels of phosphatidylcholines and practically all essential amino acids. In addition, elevated plasma levels of eight metabolites, long-chain triacylglycerols, two chemoattractant chemokines and nitric oxide correlated with the reduced glomerular function in the patients with kidney disease. Accordingly, it can be hypothesised that the patients have increased autophagy, inflammation, oxidative stress and apoptosis, leading to hepatic steatosis, uremic toxicity and altered intestinal microbe metabolism. Furthermore, the LPI macrophages showed disruption in the TLR2/1, TLR4 and TLR9 pathways, suggesting innate immune dysfunctions with an excessive response to bacterial infections but a deficient viral DNA response.