Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

Selostus: Ilmakehä-, sää- ja ilmastoskenaarioiden kehittäminen pohjoisille alueille

Effect of weather and climatological background on snow damage of forests in Southern Finland in November 1991

Summary

Introducing massively parallel computers into operational weather forecasting

Numerical weather prediction and climate simulation have been among the computationally most demanding applications of high performance computing eversince they were started in the 1950's. Since the 1980's, the most powerful computers have featured an ever larger number of processors. By the early 2000's, this number is often several thousand. An operational weather model must use all these processors in a highly coordinated fashion. The critical resource in running such models is not computation, but the amount of necessary communication between the processors. The communication capacity of parallel computers often fallsfar short of their computational power. The articles in this thesis cover fourteen years of research into how to harness thousands of processors on a single weather forecast or climate simulation, so that the application can benefit as much as possible from the power of parallel high performance computers. The resultsattained in these articles have already been widely applied, so that currently most of the organizations that carry out global weather forecasting or climate simulation anywhere in the world use methods introduced in them. Some further studies extend parallelization opportunities into other parts of the weather forecasting environment, in particular to data assimilation of satellite observations.

Conceptual Design of Embedded Weather Display

The objective of this thesis work is to describe the Conceptual Design process of an embedded electronic display device. The work presents the following sub processes: definition of device specifications, introduction to the technological alternatives for system components and their comparison, comparative photometric measurements of selected display panels, and the design and building of a functional concept prototype. This work focuses mainly on electronics design, albeit the mechanical issues and fields of the software architecture that significantly affect the decisions are also discussed when necessary. The VESA Flat Panel Display Measurement (FPDM) 2.0 Standard was applied to the appropriate extent into photometric measurements. The results were analyzed against the requirement standards of a customer-specific display development project. An Active Matrix LCD was selected as the display of concept prototype, but also the excellent visual characteristics of Active Matrix OLED technology were noted. Should the reliability of the OLED products be significantly improved in the future, utilizing such products in the described application must be reconsidered.

RADAR Roadmap: The application of EPrints for the continued development of RADAR at The Glasgow School of Art

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Radar cross-section measurement using the Doppler effect

In this Master Thesis we discuss issues related to the measurement of the effective scattering surface, based on the Doppler Effect. Modeling of the detected signal was made. Narrowband signal filtering using low-frequency amplifier was observed. Parameters of the proposed horn antennas were studied; radar cross section charts for three different objects were received.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.

Aircraft tracking and classification with vhf passive bistatic radar

Since the times preceding the Second World War the subject of aircraft tracking has been a core interest to both military and non-military aviation. During subsequent years both technology and configuration of the radars allowed the users to deploy it in numerous fields, such as over-the-horizon radar, ballistic missile early warning systems or forward scatter fences. The latter one was arranged in a bistatic configuration. The bistatic radar has continuously re-emerged over the last eighty years for its intriguing capabilities and challenging configuration and formulation. The bistatic radar arrangement is used as the basis of all the analyzes presented in this work. The aircraft tracking method of VHF Doppler-only information, developed in the first part of this study, is solely based on Doppler frequency readings in relation to time instances of their appearance. The corresponding inverse problem is solved by utilising a multistatic radar scenario with two receivers and one transmitter and using their frequency readings as a base for aircraft trajectory estimation. The quality of the resulting trajectory is then compared with ground-truth information based on ADS-B data. The second part of the study deals with the developement of a method for instantaneous Doppler curve extraction from within a VHF time-frequency representation of the transmitted signal, with a three receivers and one transmitter configuration, based on a priori knowledge of the probability density function of the first order derivative of the Doppler shift, and on a system of blocks for identifying, classifying and predicting the Doppler signal. The extraction capabilities of this set-up are tested with a recorded TV signal and simulated synthetic spectrograms. Further analyzes are devoted to more comprehensive testing of the capabilities of the extraction method. Besides testing the method, the classification of aircraft is performed on the extracted Bistatic Radar Cross Section profiles and the correlation between them for different types of aircraft. In order to properly estimate the profiles, the ADS-B aircraft location information is adjusted based on extracted Doppler frequency and then used for Bistatic Radar Cross Section estimation. The classification is based on seven types of aircraft grouped by their size into three classes.